Category Archives: Stratfor

China unhappy with US arms sales to Taiwan

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This doesnt look good. From Stratfor:

China: Washington Urged To Cancel Taiwan Weapon Sales
January 9, 2010
A statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged Washington to cancel plans to sell missile equipment to Taiwan, saying it would violate China’s security interests and severely undermine trust between U.S. and Chinese militaries, AFP reported Jan. 9. The statement came hours after China’s Defense Ministry warned it reserved the right to take action if the United States did not comply. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu entreated the United States to recognize the “severe consequences” of arms sales to Taiwan.

China: Washington Urged To Cancel Taiwan Weapon Sales January 9, 2010A statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged Washington to cancel plans to sell missile equipment to Taiwan, saying it would violate China’s security interests and severely undermine trust between U.S. and Chinese militaries, AFP reported Jan. 9. The statement came hours after China’s Defense Ministry warned it reserved the right to take action if the United States did not comply. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu entreated the United States to recognize the “severe consequences” of arms sales to Taiwan.

For anyone who likes this information, you may want to buy a subscription to WWW.STRATFOR.COM for some amazing analysis and so on of world affairs from a distinctly geopolitical point of view. Well worth the subscription. I post about 1% or less of what they produce in a day.

Stratfor: Egypt, Christians and Muslims set each other’s homes on fire

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From Stratfor:

Egypt: Christians, Muslims Set Homes On Fire
January 9, 2010
Christians and Muslims set each others’ homes and shops ablaze near the southern Egyptian town of Naga Hamady on Jan. 9, three days after a gunman killed six Coptic Christians in a drive-by shooting, Reuters reported. Muslims set fire to four houses and a shop belonging to Christians in the village of Tiraks, while Christians set fire to four shops owned by Muslims in the village of al-Bahgorah. Six people were injured.

Egypt: Christians, Muslims Set Homes On FireJanuary 9, 2010Christians and Muslims set each others’ homes and shops ablaze near the southern Egyptian town of Naga Hamady on Jan. 9, three days after a gunman killed six Coptic Christians in a drive-by shooting, Reuters reported. Muslims set fire to four houses and a shop belonging to Christians in the village of Tiraks, while Christians set fire to four shops owned by Muslims in the village of al-Bahgorah. Six people were injured.

STRATFOR: Israel’s Iron dome tests succesful

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Of course, if Iran fires one straight up above Israel and creates an EMP effect, I doubt the system can defend against that, or if Iran lets a nuke off on a ship off the shores of Israel. However its nice to have an umbrella against the barrage of missiles from Hamas and Hizbolah, and there must be some really great science in the Iron Dome missile defence system.

STRATFOR:

January 7, 2010
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system, designed to respond to the thousands of rockets fired at the country by Hezbollah and Hamas, passed its final tests Jan. 6. The rocket system successfully intercepted multiple threats simultaneously, including rockets that mimicked Kassam and longer-range Grad-model Katyusha rockets. The defense department plans to integrate the system into the army, and will deploy the rocket interceptor outside the Gaza Strip by June 2010.

Venezuela: Evidence On 2009 U.S. Incursion Claimed

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From STRATFOR

January 5, 2010
Venezuelan Vice President and Defense Minister Ramon Carrizales said Jan. 5 that evidence exists of an incursion into Venezuela by a U.S. military aircraft from Curacao on May 17, 2009, El Universal reported. Carrizales claimed the government has recordings of inquiries made to the aircraft’s crew by air traffic controllers and flight charts that show it violated Venezuelan airspace and flew into a restricted area near La Orchila air base

Venezuela: Evidence On 2009 U.S. Incursion ClaimedJanuary 5, 2010Venezuelan Vice President and Defense Minister Ramon Carrizales said Jan. 5 that evidence exists of an incursion into Venezuela by a U.S. military aircraft from Curacao on May 17, 2009, El Universal reported. Carrizales claimed the government has recordings of inquiries made to the aircraft’s crew by air traffic controllers and flight charts that show it violated Venezuelan airspace and flew into a restricted area near La Orchila air base

Iran at start of new revolution and regime?

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There are several phases to a revolution and the most significant one from the point of view of actual change afterwards, is if security forces join the revolutionaries and stop taking orders from the government. The reasons for this are obvious.

It might be the case in Iran now. According to this STRATFOR report I just received:

December 27, 2009
STRATFOR Iranian sources say that unconfirmed reports indicate as many as 16 people are believed to have been killed so far in the Dec. 27 protests in Tehran, including one Basij militiamen, and that several security forces have been injured along with rioters. There are also reports that there have been some desertions by security forces to the side of the protesters.

U.S.: Nigerian Man Charged In Attempted Aircraft Bombing

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December 26, 2009 STRATFOR
The U.S. Justice Department charged Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab Dec. 26 with trying to set off an explosive device on an aircraft headed for Detroit on Christmas Day, Bloomberg reported. Abdulmutallab, 23, a Nigerian citizen, allegedly tried to bomb the aircraft using a device containing the explosive pentaerythritol. He told FBI agents he had trained with an al Qaeda leader, ABC reported. He also told investigators the explosive device was sewn into his underwear to escape detection.

U.S.: Nigerian Man Charged In Attempted Aircraft BombingDecember 26, 2009The U.S. Justice Department charged Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab Dec. 26 with trying to set off an explosive device on an aircraft headed for Detroit on Christmas Day, Bloomberg reported. Abdulmutallab, 23, a Nigerian citizen, allegedly tried to bomb the aircraft using a device containing the explosive pentaerythritol. He told FBI agents he had trained with an al Qaeda leader, ABC reported. He also told investigators the explosive device was sewn into his underwear to escape detection.

Series of SITREPS from Stratfor on terrorism attempt NW Airlines

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U.S.: Attempted Attack On Northwest Airlines Flight

December 26, 2009
A passenger on a Northwest Airlines flight bound for Detroit attempted to detonate an explosive device that was strapped to his leg during the flight, the Wall Street Journal reported Dec. 25, citing a statement by an unnamed senior U.S. official. The suspect is believed to be a Nigerian national, and has told U.S. investigators that he has ties to al Qaeda. The flight originated in Nigeria and stopped in Amsterdam before departing for Detroit.

December 26, 2009
The passenger on a Northwest Airlines flight who attempted to detonate an explosive device aboard the plane has told investigators that he was given the explosive device, originally thought to be a gunpowder firecracker but now believed to be more sophisticated, by al Qaeda operatives in Yemen, according to a U.S. official, The Wall Street Journal reported Dec. 25. The suspect also claims to have received training in Yemen on how to detonate the explosive. The device, which reportedly consisted of a liquid and a powder, caught fire as the individual attempted to set it off.

December 26, 2009
The U.S. government has declared the incident aboard a Northwest Airlines flight to be an attempted terrorist attack, and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has issued a statement saying that screenings may be increased in response to the incident, the New York Times reported Dec. 25. U.S. President Barack Obama, currently on vacation in Hawaii, was briefed on the incident during two secure conference calls with his national security team.

December 26, 2009
A U.S. counterterrorism official said the suspect in the attempted Northwest Airlines attack Dec. 25, Nigerian national Abdul Mudallad, was in a U.S. intelligence database and on a government no-fly list, The New York Times reported. A passenger three rows in front of the suspect on the plane told National Public Radio that the suspect attempted to detonate the device during the plane’s descent, and that after noticing a glow and the smell of smoke, another passenger tackled the suspect immediately.

U.S.: Suspect Had Terror Connections, Not On No-Fly List – Congressman
December 26, 2009
U.S. Representative Peter King said that the Nigerian suspect, identified as Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab, was not on any government no-fly lists, as had previously been reported, but his name was in an intelligence database for individuals suspected of terrorist connections, CNN reported Dec. 25. King also said that an investigation has begun to determine whether the incident was isolated, or part of a larger plot. MSNBC has reported that the suspect had purchased a one-way ticket for his flight.

U.S.: Suspect Departed Nigeria, U.S. Entry Visa Issued June 2008
December 26, 2009
The suspect in the attempted attack on a Northwest Airlines flight Dec. 25 began his journey in Nigeria on board KLM Flight 588 and made a connection in Amsterdam aboard Northwest Flight 253, ABC reported. The individual’s entry visa stated he was traveling to the United States for a religious ceremony, and the visa was issued June 16, 2008 and valid through June 12, 2010.

Iran bringing in Hizbulah as goons to Qom

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According to Stratfor, Iran is rumoured to be bringing in hundreds of Hizbolah men to Qom as goons to act against anti government protesters. If this is true we will know within the week. Chances are, some of the reports we are reading about non uniformed men acting violently against protesters already are likely Hizbolah. Certainly Hizblah are seen frequently in the streets of Iranian cities according to a Chris Hitchens interview from years ago.

But what an ugly government that brings in hired thugs from another nation to control its own population. I can’t think of much worse except what Iran plans for Israel, the US and perhaps Saudi Arabia even.

December 25, 2009
A STRATFOR source reported Dec. 25 that hundreds of Hezbollah security forces have been dispatched to Iran in anticipation of the opposition demonstrations planned for Dec. 27, the Shiite holy day of Ashura. The source indicated that most of the Hezbollah forces would be sent to Qom, where demonstrations have broken out in the past week. This report has not been confirmed.

By the way, for anyone who likes this sort of geopolitical analysis on world affairs I suggest buying a STRATFOR membership. It is fallable indeed as they really got the Iranian nuclear program wrong. But overall it is a fantastic way to think and a good augmentation of more typical ways of thinking about war and politics.

Stratfor: US watching oil field #4 at a distance

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Iraq: U.S. Official Says Military Watching Fauqa Oilfield Events From A Distance
December 23, 2009
A U.S. military official said Dec. 23 the military is watching developments at the No. 4 well of the Fauqa oilfield from a distance, Aswat al-Iraq News Agency reported. The official said the U.S. military will not interfere, saying Iraq can solve the matter by diplomatic means.

India – Pakistan in shooting battle at border

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From STRATFOR

India, Pakistan: Heavy Firing Exchanged On Border
December 22, 2009
Indian and Pakistani border guards exchanged heavy firing at the international border between the two countries in Jammu and Kashmir, IANS reported Dec. 22. According to the Border Security Force (BSF), Pakistani border guards opened fire on Indian positions in Ramgarh sector provoking the Indian side to retaliate. A BSF official said intermittent exchange of fire continues. Indian army units along the international border were alerted

Iran Iraq and oilfields.

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Stratfor has missed the boat in my opinion, on its estimate of Iran’s true nuclear ambitions, capabilities and intentions. Stratfor consistently argued that there was no real intention to make a nuclear weapon but the illusion of making one gave them leverage in terms of negotiations with the US over territory in the newly minted Saddam free Iraq.
Iran now appears to be within reach of a nuclear weapon. Not a device but a fairly sophisticated weapon as well as launch capabilities to create an EMP effect over whatever target it desires, as illustrated by Iran’s successful satellite launch in 09
So much for ambitions. It clearly did intend to develop nuclear weapons and may well have done so. I would bet that whatever common intel is on Iran and it’s nuclear program is, they are in fact well ahead of that schedule. This would appear to be the theme. It is a series of surprises with Iran. Surprise! they are at stage 2 and we thought they were still in stage one, and so on and so on. The most recent one was surprise, they have developed a sophisticated nuclear trigger that may be a part for a plutonium based weapon.
So much for capabilities. As to intentions I believe Iran has been very clear. A world without Jews, Israel and the U.S.A
How this story relates I have no idea at all. But Iran while it may indeed be crazy, it may indeed have a leadership which are dedicated believers in a cult that requires a man made Armageddon to bring its mythical saviour back to life, Iran has shown that it is not stupid and underestimating it would be foolish beyond measure. I do not know how this story relates to Iran’s programs and intentions, but I do know that it does.

Stratfor has missed the boat in my opinion, on its estimate of Iran’s true nuclear ambitions, capabilities and intentions. Stratfor consistently argued that there was no real intention to make a nuclear weapon but the illusion of making one gave them leverage in terms of negotiations with the US over territory in the newly minted Saddam free Iraq.

Iran now appears to be within reach of a nuclear weapon. Not a device but a fairly sophisticated weapon as well as launch capabilities to create an EMP effect over whatever target it desires, as illustrated by Iran’s successful satellite launch in 09

So much for ambitions. It clearly did intend to develop nuclear weapons and may well have done so. I would bet that whatever common intel is on Iran and it’s nuclear program is, they are in fact well ahead of that schedule. This would appear to be the theme. It is a series of surprises with Iran. Surprise! they are at stage 2 and we thought they were still in stage one, and so on and so on. The most recent one was surprise, they have developed a sophisticated nuclear trigger that may be a part for a plutonium based weapon.

So much for capabilities. As to intentions I believe Iran has been very clear. A world without Jews, Israel and the U.S.A

How this story relates I have no idea at all. But Iran while it may indeed be crazy, it may indeed have a leadership which are dedicated believers in a cult that requires a man made Armageddon to bring its mythical saviour back to life, Iran has shown that it is not stupid and underestimating it would be foolish beyond measure. I do not know how this story relates to Iran’s programs and intentions, but I do know that it does.

Eeyore for Vladtepes

From STRATFOR.COM:

Iraq Incursion Update: Assessing Iran’s Motives

December 18, 2009 | 2318 GMT

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AFP/Getty Images

Members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in April 2006

Following an emergency meeting held Dec. 18 in response to an Iranian incursion and occupation of an oil well in southern Iraq, the Iraqi National Security Council said that Iran has violated Iraq’s territorial integrity and called on the Iranian government to withdraw its forces. Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad had been summoned and that diplomatic steps were being taken to resolve the situation.

The details of what exactly happened remain murky, but it appears that Iranian forces have occupied an oil well in the al Fauqa region of the East Maysan oil field, about 280 miles south of Baghdad. The border between Iran and Iraq in this area has not been demarcated since the Iran-Iraq war. Iran has implied that it did not violate Iraqi territory, as it considers the oil well to be within its borders.

For the rest of this article you will need a STRATFOR.COM membership.

Here is a new STRATFOR video on this issue:

Hugo Chavez defines hypocrisy in Denmark.

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First, let’s have a look at what he actually said to an international audience in Copenhagen. H/T for the video to Gates of Vienna, your passport to sanity in the modern world.

Now let us have a brief look at some of the things Hugo has done for, or perhaps better stated, to democracy at home.

First some excerpts from the hopelessly non-partizan, STRATFOR organization:

Aug 24 2008

Summary
On his weekly television show Aug. 3, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez defended his decision to pass 26 new laws by decree — including one that will integrate his militias into the military. The move is an attempt to shore up his control over the country in the face of rising inflation, slackening national income and faltering party unity.

Summary

On his weekly television show Aug. 3, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez defended his decision to pass 26 new laws by decree — including one that will integrate his militias into the military. The move is an attempt to shore up his control over the country in the face of rising inflation, slackening national income and faltering party unity.

Analysis

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez used the last day of his special powers to pass laws by decree to institute 26 new edicts. This move, coupled with highly aggressive rhetoric from Chavez, was designed to strengthen his hold on the country ahead of Nov. 23 state and local elections that threaten his political influence in the country.

March 5 2009

Summary

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has announced the state’s takeover of two rice production facilities and budget cutbacks for state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela. These are the government’s opening moves in response to the global economic downturn.

Dec 9 2009

The Venezuelan government announced that it nationalized another three banks Dec. 8, bringing the total to seven. The takeover emphasizes the government’s anxiety about general economic unsteadiness, the need for resources and has also served clear political purposes. Continued nationalizations could very well tip off a crisis leading to bank runs and severe economic instability.

Dec 8 2009

December 8, 2009

President Hugo Chavez said Venezuela received thousands of Russian-made missiles and rocket launchers as part of his government’s military preparations for a possible armed conflict with neighboring Colombia, AP reported Dec. 8. During a televised address Chavez said Colombia is planning a war against Venezuela and preparing is the best way to neutralize it. The former paratrooper-turned-president did not specify what type of missiles, but said Venezuela’s growing arsenal includes Russian-made Igla-1S surface-to-air missiles and rocket-propelled grenades. Chavez added that Russian tanks, including T-72s, will arrive to strengthen the armored divisions.

Dec 3 2009

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced the government seizure of assets belonging to Grupo Bolivar, Globovision reported Dec. 3. Chavez listed warehouses, grain transport businesses and food processing factories as assets that could be taken over by the government, saying the move would guarantee the recovery of funds for the liquidation of several banks previously seized by authorities, including Banco Bolivar, a subsidiary of Grupo Bolivar.

Here, Hugo signs deals with some of the more well known democratic nations as he understands democracy:

October 28, 2009

Iran and Venezuela will establish a Spanish-based oil company called Beniroug, Fars News Agency reported Oct. 28, citing an official with the Venezuelan Embassy to Iran. Beniroug will allow investment in other countries such as Cuba, Sudan, China and Bolivia, the official said. Also, he said, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez signed a deal in Tehran that calls for Caracas to invest in Iran’s South Pars oil and gas field.

Examples of Hugo Chavez sheer venomous contempt for democracy, for inclusivness are legion. Well worth a subscription to Stratfor.com if you want the newest on this clown. I’ll post one or two examples of Hugo Chavez and his ‘Bolivarian revolution’ and it’s relationship to the Jewish people in Venezuela as examples of how inclusive he really is. But the straight facts are that his actions at home and in power are in direct opposition to his words at Copenhagen and for that matter in general.

Stratfor Feb 6 2009

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…At the same time, there has been a disturbing rise in anti-Semitism in Venezuela, in part in reaction to Israel’s Operation Cast Lead. Numerous virulent publications by individuals in Chavez’s camp have advocated “confronting” and “outing” Venezuelan Jews. Among other incidents, the student mentioned above was also “outed” as a Jew in national media. On Jan. 31, the main synagogue in Caracas suffered a major break-in. Fifteen armed men reportedly invaded the property, vandalizing it and stealing private information on members of the Jewish congregation. The intruders then seized surveillance videos of the synagogue property. While the reasons for visible uptick in anti-Semitism remain unclear, much can be attributed to rising tensions in the country and the Gaza crisis.

Chavez toying with the ‘False Flag’?

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From STRATFOR:

Venezuela: Attackers Target Copei Popular Party Headquarters
December 11, 2009
Unknown attackers threw a Molotov cocktail at Venezuela’s Copei Popular Party headquarters in Merida on Dec.11, Globovision reported. Merida State Gov. Marco Diaz blamed Mayor Lester Rodriguez and the Colombian consul for the incident, saying it is part of a destabilization plan of urban guerrilla attacks planned by Colombia. Diaz claimed the attacks left four policemen injured and damaged several businesses.