Stratfor has missed the boat in my opinion, on its estimate of Iran’s true nuclear ambitions, capabilities and intentions. Stratfor consistently argued that there was no real intention to make a nuclear weapon but the illusion of making one gave them leverage in terms of negotiations with the US over territory in the newly minted Saddam free Iraq.
Iran now appears to be within reach of a nuclear weapon. Not a device but a fairly sophisticated weapon as well as launch capabilities to create an EMP effect over whatever target it desires, as illustrated by Iran’s successful satellite launch in 09
So much for ambitions. It clearly did intend to develop nuclear weapons and may well have done so. I would bet that whatever common intel is on Iran and it’s nuclear program is, they are in fact well ahead of that schedule. This would appear to be the theme. It is a series of surprises with Iran. Surprise! they are at stage 2 and we thought they were still in stage one, and so on and so on. The most recent one was surprise, they have developed a sophisticated nuclear trigger that may be a part for a plutonium based weapon.
So much for capabilities. As to intentions I believe Iran has been very clear. A world without Jews, Israel and the U.S.A
How this story relates I have no idea at all. But Iran while it may indeed be crazy, it may indeed have a leadership which are dedicated believers in a cult that requires a man made Armageddon to bring its mythical saviour back to life, Iran has shown that it is not stupid and underestimating it would be foolish beyond measure. I do not know how this story relates to Iran’s programs and intentions, but I do know that it does.
Eeyore for Vladtepes
Iraq Incursion Update: Assessing Iran’s Motives
December 18, 2009 | 2318 GMT
Members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in April 2006
Following an emergency meeting held Dec. 18 in response to an Iranian incursion and occupation of an oil well in southern Iraq, the Iraqi National Security Council said that Iran has violated Iraq’s territorial integrity and called on the Iranian government to withdraw its forces. Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad had been summoned and that diplomatic steps were being taken to resolve the situation.
The details of what exactly happened remain murky, but it appears that Iranian forces have occupied an oil well in the al Fauqa region of the East Maysan oil field, about 280 miles south of Baghdad. The border between Iran and Iraq in this area has not been demarcated since the Iran-Iraq war. Iran has implied that it did not violate Iraqi territory, as it considers the oil well to be within its borders.
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Here is a new STRATFOR video on this issue: