Category Archives: Pakistan

CIA tracking 4000 UK terror suspects

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THE CIA has begun an unprecedented intelligence-gathering operation in Britain to help MI5 monitor 4000 terrorist suspects.

More than four out of 10 CIA operations to prevent attacks on US soil are now conducted against targets in Britain.

This has led to friction between British and American spies, with some US intelligence officers irritated that resources are being diverted to gather intelligence on suspects in their closest ally’s backyard. British intelligence officers do not know the identity of all the CIA informers and are uneasy about some of the uses to which the intelligence has been put.

MI5 as a whole is glad of the help, however, and works closely with its sister service. US spies share information when it concerns security in Britain.

Intelligence from CIA informers is believed to have helped thwart more than one terrorist atrocity on British soil. Information passed on by a CIA source in Britain was also instrumental in locating Rashid Rauf, a British-born al-Qaeda operative killed by a US air strike in Pakistan on November 22.

A British official said: “There is a great deal of CIA activity inside the UK. The CIA has been given a free rein to raise, handle and process from intelligence sources inside the UK.

“In many cases we do not know who their assets are. Several of the recently foiled terrorist plots inside the UK were uncovered by informants run by US source handlers. We’ve been able to interdict these plots.”

A former CIA officer who still carries out freelance work for the agency voiced the irritation of some American spies. “It’s certainly frustrating that Britain is an Islamist swamp,” he said. “You don’t want to have to spend time spying on your friends.

British security chiefs have long turned a blind eye to a CIA presence in Britain and, since the attacks of September 11, 2001, MI5 and the CIA have worked together closely to combat the threat from Islamist extremists. MI5 also tolerates similar operations by the Israeli agency Mossad, which briefs members of the London Jewish community on threats to their security.

However, US security chiefs have stepped up their presence in Britain in the past two years, as they think Islamist extremists there are the biggest threat to US security and fear MI5 may be swamped by the scale of the threat. They also fear al-Qaeda recruits could travel to the US under America’s visa waiver program.

MI5 director-general Jonathan Evans has estimated about 4000 people in Britain pose a direct threat to national security.

Bruce Riedel, a Middle East intelligence analyst for the White House National Security Council, said: “A great deal of concern about threats to the US homeland is based upon attacks coming out of the UK. The 800,000 or so British citizens of Pakistani origin are regarded by the American intelligence community as perhaps the single-biggest threat environment.”

India PM makes harsher accusations against Pakistan for Bombay attacks.

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India’s PM made more direct accusations of Pakistani state involvement  in the Oct. attacks on various targets in Mumbai.

India’s prime minister said Tuesday that Pakistani authorities “must have had” a hand in the Mumbai siege, a remark dismissed by Pakistan as propaganda that could undermine efforts to bring the perpetrators to justice

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh repeated India’s allegations that the November attacks were was carried out by the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. But in his most forceful speech on the subject, Singh stopped just short of accusing Islamabad of directly aiding the gunmen.

Some links Jan 3 09

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Here is a really well done article from powerlines blog. I think though that it should be clear from the 06 war with Hizbulah that its mostly Reuters which is absurdly biased and not necessarily the media as a whole. But he does make a good case for overall bias.

Taliban announces sharia law on areas of NWFP Pakistan. No music movies or women allowed out of the house except for medical emergencies. Maybe Canada can send in some comandos disguised as Buddha statues.

Excellent article from gates of Vienna on how the UN treats Russian actions against Islamic towns. It’s especially funny when Russia begins with “You just cant reason with Islamic terrorists”

Vaclaav Klaus president of the Czech Republic and current EU chair explains to the UN that Israel is fighting a defensive war.

Some video of the religion of peace rally in Toronto. The police escorted away the non anti Israel people who where non threatening for ‘their own safety’. I must say Canada disgusts me at times. Safety over anything at the expense of all freedom and meaning.

Interview with David Harris former Chief of Strategic Planning for CSIS and current Director of INSIGNIS

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Here is an interview with a man in a position to know what is going on with respect to Islamic terrorism in the world. He speaks of Iran, Hamas Spain and the soft Jihad. Sadly this is only about thirty percent of the total interview he gave as the sound quality was simply too poor on the first two thirds to be able to make one’s way through. In this last third he does make some very strong points about the truly grave dangers facing the western world, Canada and the USA in particular and the danger of unchecked immigration.

An article by David Harris is available here about the infiltration of Islam to the Canadian political mainstream.

David B. Harris is a Canadian lawyer, Director of INSIGNIS Strategic Research Inc’s International and Terrorist Intelligence Program, and former Chief of Strategic Planning of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS).

(Note from James Cohen)

“This show created some difficulty for me, not the least of which is the horrific nature of the information Mr. Harris gave and the severity and immediacy of the threat facing the western world and classical civilization itself, but because I never before have had to edit any show other than making the transitions from speech to music a little smoother but never for content. In this case as we had massive sound issues due to a number of new variables we introduced in this particular show, the first 2/3rds of the program are simply unlistenable and I felt that it would be better removed. However for those who would like to hear the entire file I will make it available as a download by request through email. You can understand the first part but it takes some focus. Anyone wishing to hear the entire show may email me at ja***@***************io.com and I would be happy to send you the entire thing. I wish to stress that no editing was done in order to change the context or nature of any information Dave Harris gave but because of the technical issues with the first parts of the show. Also, after we say good bye to Mr. Harris he brings up a rather excellent point at the end about how people who are preventing any real threat mitigation by demanding no loss of civil rights are very likely facing a situation where any civil rights are a distant memory for all of us and likely for a very long time.”

Here is the link to the interview

ROWR-DavidHarris     

Muslims removed from flight. Another non issue which will go large.

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(Here is an additional story by M. Zuhdi Jasser, The Muslim American who is the main voice in the most excellent film, ‘The Third Jihad’, a 1/2 version of which is available here on VTB. on the subject of the ‘flying imams’)

First the story…

“Muslim passengers removed from AirTran Airways flight from Washington

Federal officials ordered all 104 passengers off the plane and re-screened them before allowing the flight to depart.

January 2, 2009 – 10:06

AirTran spokesman Tad Hutcheson says the airline strictly followed federal rules.

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON – AirTran Airways says nine Muslim passengers were removed from a flight from Washington, D.C., to Florida after other passengers reported hearing a suspicious remark.

An AirTran spokesman says it was a misunderstanding. The Muslim passengers say AirTran wouldn’t rebook them Thursday and they had to pay for seats on another airline.

Passenger Kashif Irfan tells The Washington Post the confusion began when his brother remarked aloud that the plane’s jets were next to his window.

Two other passengers reported hearing what they considered to be a suspicious remark.”

Now why it doesn’t matter in some ways and does in others. One aspect of it has to do with conflicting sets of rules. Clearly airlines have rules that force them to remove anyone who make even the perception of a threat to a flight. This is logical and expected. We cannot make jokes about bombs etc. this is the new post 911 reality for all of us. Muslims of course are pretty much the number one perpetrator of threats and attacks on airlines for the past decade or more. As we do not see massive amounts of Muslims speaking out against it and we do see more and more Muslims arrested for threats to airlines from China to the UK and beyond, one can expect extra vigilance towards Islamic passengers. There are also other rules against discrimination of any kind especially when its reasonable. This reminds me of a story from Ottawa pre internet so I’m sorry I do not have a link. The Ottawa Citizen archives would have the story though if someone wanted to pay the $75.00 to get it.

At some point in the 80s an immigrant family from somewhere in East Europe took their roll of film (remember film?) to be developed at a photo shack somewhere in Ottawa. The pictures contained traditional bear skin rug pictures of a new baby the youngest addition to this family of as I recall, three or four children. At that time there was a general hysteria about child pornography so rules had been put in place removing any ability from various people to make reasoned judgment about what was or was not child pornography. The photo developer employee was obliged by law to report the matter to the police. The child, baby really, was naked in the photo and on a furry carpet. This was of course the custom for many cultures as part of the set of keepsakes one has of one’s children. The Cherub shot and as innocent as could possibly be. The employee knew this of course but he had to act. The police also knew this. But they also had to act. New rules had removed the ability for the police to use discriminating wisdom and the father was arrested, the rest of the children taken to children’s aid and the family destroyed. After a few months the matter was dropped of course once someone who still had the legal right to act on the obvious could make a call. The father was released but he had lost his job and was stigmatized as a child pornographer at this point.

If memory serves they moved back to Eastern Europe where they could enjoy freedom.

Here we can add one more layer of complexity to a similar case. While its true that one rule contradicts the other, airlines have to use judgment to remove any threat real or perceived and its illegal to do so if its against the group which carries the greatest threat. There is also the new trend of ‘lawfare’. Many Muslims will deliberately act in a way to cause some fear amongst the passengers and then sue for discrimination. This by the way is in the Al Queda handbook. It is a tactic. (Yes, the Islamic world understands us a great deal better than we understand them.) In this particular instance it is not known which of these variables apply. They could be perfectly innocent people who where inconvenienced by the perceived threat they posed. In my world they should thank the airlines for keeping us all safe and understand. It’s what most of us would do. So it should be interesting to see how they do react. My money is on a major law suit against the air lines which has happened a few times already in similar circumstances.

Should they elect to sue I offer this alternative.

Why not create an all Muslim airline? One which only has halal foods and always flies facing mecca? They can call it ‘Shaheed Air’. There might have to be some kind of special sharia insurance plan for it but I’m sure the Saudis would underwrite it. I even have an idea for the add. It’s one the Pakistani carrier used back in the day.

pakistan-air-add

Taliban asserts harsh sharia in Swat valley. Forces women to ‘marry’ militants.

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I put marry in quotes because if one party of the two being ‘married’ is forced it is hardly marriage by any definition a civilized person would recognize. In fact on the issue of Islamic polygamy I am indifferent to the aspect of multiple wives. It is the concept of Islamic marriage as a whole I object to. When a woman is forced into a marriage often as young as six years old to men in their thirties and older it is slavery not marriage and a ceremony does not change that. Read the story below from India Express to get an idea of how the Taliban is managing to reassert its old regime and draconian version of sharia law in Pakistan’s Swat Valley in the North West Frontier Province. It really is dificult to imagine that anyone would want to live this way let alone force this way of life upon as many others as they are able. I will post a video at the bottom of this article which shows how a teenager from Pakistan was tricked into becoming a ‘shahid’ or suicide bomber. Fortunately for him and his potential victims he was arrested and taken into custody in Afghanistan.

Islamabad: On the heels of their crusade against girls going to schools, the Taliban have now issued new dictum in the areas under their sway asking parents of the grown up daughters to marry them to militants or ‘face dire consequences’.This new force-marriage campaign is being run in most of the areas in the Pakistan’s troubled NWFP through regular announcements made in mosques to congregations.

Such instances have come to light recently through some of the affected women daring to go to authorities for justice rather than meekly surrender to the militants dictates.

Salma, who teaches in a primary school in Peshawar, told the influential ‘Dawn’ newspaper that Taliban have told families to declare in mosques if they have unmarried girls so that their hand could be given in marriage, most probably to militants.

If they did not do so, the girls would be forcibly married off; the newspaper quoted the 30-year-old widow as saying.

She also said the Taliban in the Swat valley of NWFP have threatened women with dire punishment, if they are found outside their homes without identity cards and a male relative accompanying them. Couples should also carry ‘Nikah Nama’ or marriage certificates with them when they venture out of home or they will be in trouble, she said.”I have heard that Taliban have announced that if a girl above the age of seven is found outside her house, she would be slaughtered,” Salma said.

Once an avid listener of Pakistani Taliban commander Maulana Fazlullah’s FM radio station, Salma doesn’t tune in to the channel any more.

“Usually there is only dreadful news on the radio, so I stopped listening to it,” said Salma, who has three sons.

Fazlullah, also known as Mullah Radio for the fiery sermons he broadcasts on his illegal FM station, leads a campaign by Taliban militants to enforce Shariat or Islamic law in Swat.

Fazlullah’s followers have blown up or torched over 100 girls’ schools in Swat and barred women from going to markets.

The Taliban’s recent decision to completely ban girls’ education from January 15 has upset Salma and her colleagues because most of them are the sole bread-winners of their families.

“My colleagues were crying when they heard this bad news. Some have aged and handicapped parents while others have lost their male members in the ongoing conflict,” she said.

“Our principal has said that all female teachers should write down the domestic problems forcing them to work so that they could be forwarded to Taliban, who would be requested to review their policy about women’s education,” Salma said.

And now the video of the captured suicide bomber from CNN.COM

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Pakistan looses Swat valley to islamic terrorists.

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ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) —

Taliban militants are beheading and burning their way through Pakistan’s picturesque Swat Valley, and residents say the insurgents now control most of the mountainous region far from the lawless tribal areas where jihadists thrive.

The deteriorating situation in the former tourist haven comes despite an army offensive that began in 2007 and an attempted peace deal. It is especially worrisome to Pakistani officials because the valley lies outside the areas where al-Qaida and Taliban militants have traditionally operated and where the military is staging a separate offensive.
“You can’t imagine how bad it is,” said Muzaffar ul-Mulk, a federal lawmaker whose home in Swat was attacked by bomb-toting assailants in mid-December, weeks after he left. “It’s worse day by day.”
The Taliban activity in northwest Pakistan also comes as the country shifts forces east to the Indian border because of tensions over last month’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, potentially giving insurgents more space to maneuver along the Afghan frontier.
Militants began preying on Swat’s lush mountain ranges about two years ago, and it is now too dangerous for foreign and Pakistani journalists to visit. Interviews with residents, lawmakers and officials who have fled the region paint a dire picture. A suicide blast killed 40 people Sunday at a polling station in Buner, an area bordering Swat that had been relatively peaceful. The attack underscored fears that even so-called “settled” regions presumptively under government control are increasingly unsafe. The 3,500-square-mile Swat Valley lies less than 100 miles from the capital, Islamabad.A senior government official said he feared there could be a spillover effect if the government lost control of Swat and allowed the insurgency to infect other areas. Like nearly everyone interviewed, the official requested anonymity for fear of reprisal by militants.

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India fears Pakistan will manufacture more fake Hindu terror to blame on India

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From the times of India

NEW DELHI: Last week’s bomb blast in Lahore could have become a diplomatic incident if a little known Taliban group had not
owned responsibility.

However, the incident has many security officials worried, because in the coming days and weeks, there could be other such “incidents” manufactured by the over-active Pakistani establishment to “blame” India.

The fear is that the process could go to the extreme of triggering bigger blasts at institutions and then describing them as “Indian surgical strikes” which could then “invite” Pakistani retaliation.

There is a general conclusion in India that the Pakistan army is spoiling for a fight. That has resulted in a lot of diversionary tactics including hoax calls, air force alerts and moving troops towards the Indian border, to leave the western border unattended.

The Lahore blast last week, which killed one person, prompted the Pakistani establishment to blame India, even saying that they had arrested an Indian. This could have had implications if it hadn’t been for some Taliban group in Waziristan claiming responsibility.

Subsequently, India was concerned enough to issue a rare travel advisory to its citizens, asking them to get out of Pakistan forthwith to avoid being implicated in some strange event there.

Sources said the strategic reason for Pakistan army and jihadis trying to provoke a conflict with India is not far to see. It suits them if India reacts like it did in 2001-02 with Operation Parakram, the mass mobilisation exercise. The Pakistan army and the jihadis don’t want security forces in the FATA and NWFP areas. This would give the Taliban a free hand to take positions in Afghanistan and make the resurgence of Taliban into a regime change game. Or at the very least, have their forces in position before new US president Barack Obama sends his 30,000-strong “surge” in Afghanistan by spring. In many ways, it would be the decisive war for Afghanistan.

But this is a dangerous strategy, analysts said, because the blowback on Pakistan could be equally huge. It could create the space for Pashtuns and Taliban to create a swathe of “Talibanistan” in the tribal areas.

The first signs of this is already being seen. Pakistani media is already apprehensive of the implications of the fall of Swat and Orakzai agencies to the Taliban this week. In Swat, the announcement to close girls schools by January 15 is being seen as the tipping point.

An editorial in The News said, “The notion that somehow the militants are our allies runs as a strong and deep current through elements of the army and intelligence services, the bureaucracy and the politicians themselves. There are powerful forces that provide tacit if not overt support to them, forces which would like to see the Taliban triumphant in the rest of Pakistan and not just Swat. The caliphate of Swat is becoming a reality before our eyes. Where next?”

Videos: Pakistan moves troops to LOC, air force sends signal to India, Israel attacks Gaza

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Here are a few videos from the Times of India. The signals are clear between India and Pakistan that tensions are rising and Israel launches the most severe attack on Gaza in over 20 years.

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Link collection Dec 26 08

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Here are a few links to articles I feel are worth the read both opinion and news.

First from Girl on the Right on Mumbai and the attack and mutilation of the jews there. On the treatment of the Jews in Bombay

A nice reconstruction of the events.

Secondly, on Sweden and the continuing riots and destruction by Muslim immigrants with less and less of a veneer of cause for them. Check Gates of Vienna but you may have to scroll up to see the beggining of this article. I cant figure out how to get a direct link there for a given piece. but its one of the finest sites on the internet overall.

Shoppers in Hong Kong bombed with acid. Someone dropped bottles of acid and corrosive liquids from a high building onto crowded streets. No arrests yet.

Pakistani text books may hold the answer to why so much hate towards India.Pakistanis are taught it from childhood.

On the security fence in Israel and the ghettoizing of the Palestinians. Very good read.

More on what appear to be looming hostilities between India and Pakistan.

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According to the Times of India, an explosion two days ago in Lahore Pakistan, a car bomb is being blamed on Indian terrorists and there are rumors of arrests of Indian nationals in Pakistan. This is being called a new low for Pakistan as most Indians see this as an attempt to manufacture a reason for Pakistan not to cooperate with the Mumbai probes.

Also it would appear that Pakistan has moved troops from its Afghan border to borders with India. There is also intelligence that indicates significant moves by the Indian military positioning itself for moves on Pakistan.

From the Indian Times…

Even as India persists with its protests against Pakistan’s refusal to take action against the perpetrators of 26/11, Islamabad’s diversionary tactics have touched a new low.

On Thursday, Pakistan pulled another rabbit out of its hat. That the car bomb blast in Lahore on Wednesday, which left a woman dead and 3 others injured, was triggered by four Indians.

Pakistan media, quoting anonymous sources, identified one of the bombers as one Satish Anand Shukla, allegedly a resident of Kolkota. The stunt, clearly fabricated to justify inaction against Lashkar leaders by drawing a parity between the jihadis who attacked Mumbai and fictional Indian agents, left Indian officials seething with anger.

Senior Indian officials were quick to rubbish the reports in Pakistan media, saying this had not been conveyed to any Indian agency by Islamabad. The Indian High Commission in Islamabad too denied having received any information from the Pakistanis.

From The Press Trust of India, Indian Government warns citizens not to visit Pakistan:

New Delhi, Dec 26 (PTI) Fearing trouble for its nationals in Pakistan, India today advised them to avoid being in the neighboring country even as it rubbished as “hogwash” the reports that some Indians were involved in terrorism there.
In the first such advisory since the 1971 war, the Ministry of External Affairs cautioned that travel to and presence in Pakistan was not safe for Indians in the wake of media reports there that some Indians have been held on the charge of terrorism.

New Delhi said the reported “arrests” in Lahore and Multan were suspected to have been made by elements who work outside of civilian control as top police officers there were ignorant about any such development.

Media reports in Pakistan have claimed that “Indian nationals” identified as Satish Anand Shukla, Ram Kumar, Ram Chandar and Prakash were arrested for a bomb blast in Lahore two days back.

“It is hogwash and meant to confuse people,” Minister of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma told reporters when asked to comment on reports on the arrests.

External Affairs Ministry spokesman Vishnu Prakash said “there have been reports in the Pakistani media that several Indian nationals have been arrested over the last two days in Lahore and Multan and are being accused of being terrorists.” He said “since it has also been reported in the Pakistani media yesterday that the senior police officer in Lahore was unaware of the arrest in his city, it seems that this is the work of other agencies in Pakistan that operate outside the law and civilian control.” “Indian citizens are, therefore, advised that it would be unsafe for them to travel or be in Pakistan,” Prakash said. PTI

According to Stratfor.com a geopolitical think tank in the US, Pakistani troops have been redeployed from positions near Afghanistan to the border with India.
Pakistani troops, already on a high alert footing, have been moved from the border with Afghanistan to the border with India in anticipation of a ground attack from that direction, media reported Dec. 26
Troops have been moved to Lahore as well as Jhelum and Kashmir. Pakistani air force continues surveillance on sensitive targets within Pakistan. In essence the situation continues to escalate.
Pakistan overall seems to be doing its usual bag of tricks. Denial, fake cooperation, the appearance of lack of cogency between and within its various armed services. This may be real fracturing or it may be a tactic by services such as the ISI to appear fractured in order to not bear responsability for the clear aid training and funding of numerous terrorist attacks on India and Indian interests elsewhere such as the embassy bombing in Afghanistan for which the Indian government openly accused Pakistan’s ISI of having committed.
Add to that this new tactic of a minor terrorist attack on it’s own people to try and blame the Indians for retaliating and as the Times reports, Pakistan has reached a new low.
While there is still a strong likelihood for Pakistan and India to deescalate this situation and avoid military conflict the signs at the moment are all for some kind of engagement.

Eeyore for Vlad.


a short photo essay on Mumbai and an observation or two.

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I notice that the people of India after having suffered the horrors of not just the Mumbai attacks but the series of multiple bombings that have gone on all year in India, the attack on the Indian Embassy in Afghanistan and countless assaults on India her people and institutions by Muslim militants actually get to vent their frustration on the appropriate symbol set.

Indians vent rage on Islamic effigy

Indians vent rage on Islamic effigy

By the crescent moon and star there is no doubt in these peoples minds who exactly or what is causing their suffering. What I find interesting is the sharp contrast to western peoples reaction to similar acts of horror. Instead of Tony Blair claiming that it wasn’t Muslims committing these actions but people ‘defaming’ Islam and then importing five thousand more halal butchers and hundreds of thousands of more Muslims mostly from Pakistan to prove his point or George Bush after 911 insisting that Islam is the religion of peace and we should not look unfavorably on Islam or Muslims the people of India seem to have it about right. Could it be that they are not yet completely crippled by political correctness? Or could it be their proximity to Pakistan and other Islamic states makes it hard to deny what the problem is.

One thing is a safe bet. Had American or especially British people reacted like this after attacks on their civilians, (also without warning or cause) the demonstrators would be arrested by the state for hate crimes and in the UK likely killed by their grateful Islamic immigrants.

(The images here are all newly released ones from The Times of India. A great source to follow the events Post Mumbai.)

Perhaps its because the people of India took it personally, as it was meant to be, when these horrors where vested upon them. Below is a small sample of some of the images recently released. These are not suitable viewing during dinner. But if you don’t know what you are fighting, how can you summon the will to fight it? In that spirit I repost. do be warned they are graphic.

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India Pakistan Mumbai and the rhetoric from both sides.

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The likelihood of a military action by Pakistan seems higher each day in this complex and escalating situation between these two nuclear neighbors.

To begin with, Pakistan is not a country in the usual sense while India is. Specifically Pakistan doesn’t seem to have branches of the state controlled by a central government. The organizations likely responsible for the series of brutal attacks on India through bombings in its financial district and shopping areas and so on, organizations such as the ISI (Pakistan’s intelligence coordinating agency or Inter Services Intelligence) do not seem to answer to the government of Pakistan. This leads to India’s dilemma…

Does the government of Pakistan actually encourage the ISI and other branches of the Pakistani military to conduct terrorist attacks on India? If so they are at war but the government is merely hiding behind the excuse of terrorism to abdicate direct responsability for the attacks.

Does the government not sponsor these attacks but is unable to control those branches of the state which at the moment clearly appear to be responsible for the attacks? If so then India would have less reason to attack the government but would still feel the need to deal militarily with the offices and facilities of the organizations which appear to have trained equipped and planned the missions to attack India.

Is Pakistan basically a failed state and each organization is working to its own agenda and there is no central body which can be said to have authority over the actions of the Pakistani Military? essentially this is the same as the paragraph above except for a matter of degree. The following video of Taliban-Al Queda offering to support the army of Pakistan with suicide bombers should the enemy be India does speak to who the likely allies are who are attacking India. Chances are that a large percentage of the ISI and other Pakistani agencies are working with the Muslim extremists and it can be argued that the taliban in some ways are the true government.

[kaltura-widget wid=”ukjbuj4sdg” width=”410″ height=”364″ addpermission=”3″ editpermission=”3″ /]It is worth noting that this video was broadcast on Indian mass media and available on the Times of India web site. This alone means the level of jingoism in the popular press in India is elevating putting pressure on India to take convincing action against Pakistan in some ways.

Stratfor makes the case that the Indian government which is dovish is weak and that if it fails to act will fail leading to a new Indian Government which is overtly hawkish. While its true that typically a hawkish party often softens its tone once it’s in actual power not acting is guaranteed to cause continued terrorist attacks in India and a growing loss of confidence in the governments ability to protect the interests and safety of the people of India.

The Times of India also broadcast this video about the identity of the one surviving terrorist in the Mumbai attacks as being Pakistani. As you will see, the Pakistani official government denies what is presented as clear evidence of Pakistani origins and support for his mission.

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All in all it would appear that the media is setting up the people of India for a military action of some kind on Pakistan. Its well worth reading the various Stratfor analysis of this situation available here on Vlad. Ill post some of the links at the bottom of this article. Add to this rumors of troop buildups along the India side of the India Pakistani border and higher military alert levels as well as Pakistani air force missions flying along the India border at increased frequency and for previously not done surveillance and it would appear that both sides are anticipating some military events.

This does not mean a war necessarily. It could be as little as Indian air strikes on the same target areas the US is conducting in lawless areas of Pakistan where the Taliban and Al Queda are based and operating from. It could also mean strikes against ISI facilities however within Pakistan proper and or training facilities for the Pakistani military where rumor has it the terrorists were prepared for the Mumbai attacks. This would certainly lead to escalation though and even the Government of Pakistan would have to take an official position against the Indian attacks no matter how justified.

Stratfor on India Pakistan situation.

Stratfor: on India Pakistan and Mumbai. an analysis of probable retaliation

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Next Steps in the Indo-Pakistani Crisis

December 8, 2008 | 1923 GMT


Graphic for Geopolitical Intelligence Report

By George Friedman

Related Special Topic Page

In an interview published this Sunday in The New York Times, we laid out a potential scenario for the current Indo-Pakistani crisis. We began with an Indian strike on Pakistan, precipitating a withdrawal of Pakistani troops from the Afghan border, resulting in intensified Taliban activity along the border and a deterioration in the U.S. position in Afghanistan, all culminating in an emboldened Iran. The scenario is not unlikely, assuming India chooses to strike.

Our argument that India is likely to strike focused, among other points, on the weakness of the current Indian government and how it is likely to fall under pressure from the opposition and the public if it does not act decisively. An unnamed Turkish diplomat involved in trying to mediate the dispute has argued that saving a government is not a good reason to go to war. That is a good argument, except that in this case, not saving the government is unlikely to prevent a war, either.

If India’s Congress party government were to fall, its replacement would be even more likely to strike at Pakistan. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress’ Hindu nationalist rival, has long charged that Congress is insufficiently aggressive in combating terrorism. The BJP will argue that the Mumbai attack in part resulted from this failing. Therefore, if the Congress government does not strike, and is subsequently forced out or loses India’s upcoming elections, the new government is even more likely to strike.

It is therefore difficult to see a path that avoids Indian retaliation, and thus the emergence of at least a variation on the scenario we laid out. But the problem is not simply political: India must also do something to prevent more Mumbais. This is an issue of Indian national security, and the pressure on India’s government to do something comes from several directions.

Three Indian Views of Pakistan

The question is what an Indian strike against Pakistan, beyond placating domestic public opinion, would achieve. There are three views on this in India.

The first view holds that Pakistani officials aid and abet terrorism — in particular the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), which serves as Pakistan’s main intelligence service. In this view, the terrorist attacks are the work of Pakistani government officials — perhaps not all of the government, but enough officials of sufficient power that the rest of the government cannot block them, and therefore the entire Pakistani government can be held accountable.

The second view holds that terrorist attacks are being carried out by Kashmiri groups that have long been fostered by the ISI but have grown increasingly autonomous since 2002 — and that the Pakistani government has deliberately failed to suppress anti-Indian operations by these groups. In this view, the ISI and related groups are either aware of these activities or willfully ignorant of them, even if ISI is not in direct control. Under this thinking, the ISI and the Pakistanis are responsible by omission, if not by commission.

The third view holds that the Pakistani government is so fragmented and weak that it has essentially lost control of Pakistan to the extent that it cannot suppress these anti-Indian groups. This view says that the army has lost control of the situation to the point where many from within the military-intelligence establishment are running rogue operations, and groups in various parts of the country simply do what they want. If this argument is pushed to its logical conclusion, Pakistan should be regarded as a state on the verge of failure, and an attack by India might precipitate further weakening, freeing radical Islamist groups from what little control there is.

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“trying to control stray dogs by neutering veterinarians” Canada’s National Post on Mumbai

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George Jonas is one of Canada’s truly bright lights in journalism. He really calls it in this article in Canada’s National Post, arguably the only major newspaper in Canada that isn’t trying to sell Canada’s ‘official mandatory culture’. Before I post this article there is a development that I think needs to be reported. India was accused of violating Pakistani air space twice today, December 12th in two separate areas of the Pakistani Indian border. Pakistan has downplayed the incident but India is denying it took place. this is likely pressure by India on its nuclear neighbor Pakistan because the token arrests and changes in policy towards terrorist groups are never enforced for long. Terrorists who are arrested for crimes against India etc. are released as soon as no one is looking and the incarceration usually looks more like Club Med than Club Fed.

from Stratfor:

Stratfor sources have said that Pakistan, under pressure from both India and the United States, has removed several dozen operatives from Inter-Services Intelligence. However, Islamabad has refused to hand over any Pakistani nationals to India. Furthermore, India does not trust that Pakistan is willing and/or able to rein in militant Islamists. This is because Islamabad has arrested such actors and banned militant Islamist groups in the past, only to allow them return to business as usual.

This situation, along with domestic pressure, is forcing the Indian government’s hand and pushing it toward taking unilateral military action against Pakistani-based militants. That said, New Delhi is concerned that any conflict with Pakistan could worsen security for India and in the broader region. Trying to balance between the need to act and the need to exercise caution, New Delhi likely ordered the incursions as a means to sustain the pressure to shape Pakistani behavior

Lastly I would like to add that Pamela Geller’s speculation, which is in no way confirmed, that the police in Mumbai who had a clear shot at a terrorist and did not take it (this much is true) were Muslims may factor in to the severity of the Mumbai attacks. I would very much like to know if its true. If it is, it only makes the point in the article below more valid.

On to the Jonas article…

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