Pamela Geller speaks on Mumbai and the role of Islam. Video.
“The secret of all victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious.” -Marcus Aurelius
ISLAMABAD: A powerful explosion struck a crowded central bazaar in the chaotic city of Peshawar in Pakistan’s northwest Friday, killing at least 22 people and wounding more than 90, Pakistani officials said.
The chief of police in Peshawar, Malik Naveed, told a television station that the explosion occurred in an area in the center of the city at a time when many people were out shopping for a coming festival. He said that the explosion, which took place at 7:20 p.m. local time, struck near a Shiite mosque and that he expected the number of dead and wounded to rise.
According to a Peshawar resident, Rasool Din, who was reached by telephone, the large explosion occurred in a congested area, and rescue operations were being hampered by power failures. Gas pipes had also exploded, making even more difficult the task of dousing the fire caused by the explosion, he said.
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NEW DELHI: India
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The names of trainers and the places where meticulous training took place are also known to the government, the sources said.
The United States is believed to have even more evidence, some of which it has shared with India, they said.
Chairman of US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, who was in Pakistan on Wednesday, is believed to have told his Pakistani interlocutors that Washington
had enough evidence to show a Pakistani hand in the attack, the sources said.
Sources here also refuse to believe that the Pakistani army did not have knowledge of the Mumbai operation given that ISI is controlled by it.
At the same time, sources do not believe that the civilian government in Pakistan is involved in the attack. In fact, one view is that the civilian government itself may be a target of the strike which may be used by the army to heighten tensions with India to return to power.
Washington has asked Pakistan to crackdown on Lashkar-e-Taiba, which now goes under the name of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, and to arrest its chief Hafiz Mohd Saeed because it has evidence of their involvement in the attack, the sources said.
The attack was planned, equipped and organised in Pakistan where the terrorists were trained and provided logistical support.
Contrary to the version that the terrorists used a hijacked Indian fishing boat to reach Mumbai after sailing from Karachi, the view here is that much more sophisticated means were used.
The sources spoke of a clear disconnect between the Pakistani civilian government and the all-powerful military establishment, which is causing difficulties for India in dealing with the situation.
Islamabad’s about-turn on sending the Director General of ISI to India is cited as an instance of this disconnect.
During a telephone conversation Prime Minister Manmohan Singh after the Mumbai attack, President Asif Zardari had referred to an earlier Pakistani proposal for a meeting between the ISI chief and the head of India’s external intelligence agency, RAW.
Singh told Zardari that this was acceptable to India, after which Pakistan government had announced that the ISI head would travel to India.
After a post-midnight call on Zardari by Army chief Gen Ashfaque Kayani this decision was reversed with the President taking cover under a “mis-communication” with the Indian prime minister. Instead it was decided to depute a Director-level officer to India.
When the terror attack took place Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi was in India and had consciously decided not to cut short his visit. However, the Indian government was told at 2.30 am that a special aircraft was being sent less than 4 hours later to take him back to Pakistan.
In what observers see as a clear message to the civilian government, the Pakistan army chief’s plane was sent to Delhi to pick up Qureshi, who boarded the flight around 7 am.
The view here is that the Pakistan army is using the current developments as a way out of the difficult situation it faces in the areas bordering Afghanistan where its writ does not run. Some 900 desertions are said to have taken place from the army.
Once again the boys at Stratfor do an excellent analysis and determine the likely source of the plan used at Mumbai. For more on Ramsey Yussef, I reccomend highly Fred Burton’s book, ‘Ghost’ available through the store here at Vlad Tepes.
Its an account of his capture among other events in counter terrorism and Fred Burton is also the author of this article.
The film ‘The Path to 911’ made as a miniseries by ABC (if you can get the version with the scenes Bill Clinton forced to be deleted put back in and intact) as also an amazing documentary about how this and other terrorist activities are organized and how 911 eventually succeeded.
Eeyore for Vlad.
From the New York Landmarks Plot to the Mumbai Attack
December 3, 2008
RELATED SPECIAL TOPIC PAGES
Militant Attacks In Mumbai and Their Consequences
Travel Security
Terrorist Attack Cycle
On the surface, last week’s attack on Mumbai was remarkable for its execution and apparently unconventional tactics. But when compared to a plot uncovered 15 years ago that targeted prominent hotels in Manhattan, it becomes apparent that the Mumbai attack was not so original after all.
The 1993 New York Landmarks Plot
In July 1993, U.S. counterterrorism agents arrested eight individuals later convicted of plotting an elaborate, multistage attack on key sites in Manhattan. The militants, who were linked to Osama bin Laden’s then-relatively new group, al Qaeda, planned to storm the island armed with automatic rifles, grenades and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). In multiple raids on key targets combined with diversionary attacks, they aimed to kill as many people as possible.
The planned attack, which came to be known as the “Landmarks” plot, called for several tactical teams to raid sites such as the Waldorf-Astoria, St. Regis and U.N. Plaza hotels, the Lincoln and Holland tunnels, and a midtown Manhattan waterfront heliport servicing business executives and VIPs traveling from lower Manhattan to various New York-area airports. The militants carried out extensive surveillance both inside and outside the target hotels using human probes, hand-drawn maps and video surveillance. Detailed notes were taken on the layout and design of the buildings, with stairwells, ballrooms, security cameras and personnel all reconnoitered.
The attackers intended to infiltrate the hotels and disguise themselves as kitchen employees. On the day of the attack, one attack team planned to use stolen delivery vans to get close to the hotels, at which point heavily armed, small-cell commando teams would deploy from the rear of the van. Stationary operatives would use hand grenades to create diversions while attack teams would rake hotel guests with automatic weapons. The attackers planned to carry gas masks and use tear gas in hotel ballrooms to gain an advantage over any security they might come up against. They planned to attack at night, when the level of protection would be lower.
Strategic Motivations for the Mumbai Attack
December 1, 2008
By George Friedman
RELATED SPECIAL TOPIC PAGE
Militant Attacks In Mumbai and Their Consequences
Last Wednesday evening, a group of Islamist operatives carried out a complex terror operation in the Indian city of Mumbai. The attack was not complex because of the weapons used or its size, but in the apparent training, multiple methods of approaching the city and excellent operational security and discipline in the final phases of the operation, when the last remaining attackers held out in the Taj Mahal hotel for several days. The operational goal of the attack clearly was to cause as many casualties as possible, particularly among Jews and well-to-do guests of five-star hotels. But attacks on various other targets, from railroad stations to hospitals, indicate that the more general purpose was to spread terror in a major Indian city.
While it is not clear precisely who carried out the Mumbai attack, two separate units apparently were involved. One group, possibly consisting of Indian Muslims, was established in Mumbai ahead of the attacks. The second group appears to have just arrived. It traveled via ship from Karachi, Pakistan, later hijacked a small Indian vessel to get past Indian coastal patrols, and ultimately landed near Mumbai.
Extensive preparations apparently had been made, including surveillance of the targets. So while the precise number of attackers remains unclear, the attack clearly was well-planned and well-executed.
Evidence and logic suggest that radical Pakistani Islamists carried out the attack. These groups have a highly complex and deliberately amorphous structure. Rather than being centrally controlled, ad hoc teams are created with links to one or more groups. Conceivably, they might have lacked links to any group, but this is hard to believe. Too much planning and training were involved in this attack for it to have been conceived by a bunch of guys in a garage. While precisely which radical Pakistani Islamist group or groups were involved is unknown, the Mumbai attack appears to have originated in Pakistan. It could have been linked to al Qaeda prime or its various franchises and/or to Kashmiri insurgents.
More important than the question of the exact group that carried out the attack, however, is the attackers’ strategic end. There is a tendency to regard terror attacks as ends in themselves, carried out simply for the sake of spreading terror. In the highly politicized atmosphere of Pakistan’s radical Islamist factions, however, terror frequently has a more sophisticated and strategic purpose. Whoever invested the time and took the risk in organizing this attack had a reason to do so. Let’s work backward to that reason by examining the logical outcomes following this attack.
An End to New Delhi’s Restraint
The most striking aspect of the Mumbai attack is the challenge it presents to the Indian government — a challenge almost impossible for New Delhi to ignore. A December 2001 Islamist attack on the Indian parliament triggered an intense confrontation between India and Pakistan. Since then, New Delhi has not responded in a dramatic fashion to numerous Islamist attacks against India that were traceable to Pakistan. The Mumbai attack, by contrast, aimed to force a response from New Delhi by being so grievous that any Indian government showing only a muted reaction to it would fall.
According to Stratfor.com premiere geopolitical think tank Pakistan has violated a ceasefire with India for the second time within 24 hours. India apparently did not return fire.
The Indian army officer who reported this in the Press Trust of India claimed it was the second breach of the ceasefire within 24 hours and took place across two states.
It’s quite remarkable how hard it is to start a war with Buddhists and Hindu’s isn’t it? But that is clearly what Pakistan’s ISI is determined to do. Islam will not rest till it has destroyed both nations. They may get their wish soon.
The mayhem in Mumbai had barely subsided when I received the first e-mail suggesting the terrorist attacks had been carried out by agents of Mossad — Israel’s military intelligence — masquerading as Islamic terrorists to give Muslims a bad name.
A writer from Toronto forwarded a news item claiming, “India’s Internal Security Police are now holding and questioning an identified Israeli Mossad agent, who had been in communication with some of the alleged terrorists in India two weeks before the BLACK OP attacks took place.”
As ridiculous as this may sound, chances are countless Muslims are deluding themselves into believing that it is not their co-religionists who are responsible for the savagery let loose on India, but some hidden hand that is part of a U.S.-Zionist conspiracy against Islam. If at all there was an intelligence agency whose finger prints can be spotted all over the crime scene, it appears to be Islamist rogue elements from the Pakistan ISI, hell-bent on disrupting a marked improvement in India’s relations with neighboring Pakistan.
For two decades, the Pakistan Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has been the de-facto government in Pakistan, toppling regimes, aiding the Taliban, giving cover to al-Qaeda fugitives, and running a business empire worth billions of dollars.
In July, the new democratically elected government in Islamabad led by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani attempted to bring the ISI under civilian control, but under threat of a military coup, had to perform a humiliating about-face within 24 hours.
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Thursday 6:23 PM EST dead 125 injured 325
Hard to write anything about what is a world shaking atrocity. I’m not sure short of a WMD what could be worse than a bunch of armed men shooting up hotels, hospitals for women and children, a Jewish community center where they are killing the Jews, hotels of historic importance and full of people being firebombed and people shot seemingly indiscriminately. These videos show a lot of whats going on and I will publish below an outline of Stratfor’s analysis of it to the extent their IP rules allow.
Here is a phone number for US citizens to find out about people in Mumbai 888 407 4747 (Thanks Wendy)
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from Stratfor:
“A massive and well-organized attack by militants in Mumbai, India, has left nearly 100 people dead so far, promises to cut deeply into India’s foreign investment prospects and threatens to rock India’s government. As India responds to the attack, its relationship with Pakistan will be front and center, and the potential for a destabilization of relations between the two geopolitical rivals is high.”
Stratfor focuses on the possible geopolitical ramifications of an already unstable India with a great deal of pressure on its government to react to a string of terrorist attacks from bombings in its commercial centers to shopping districts in the past months.
The group now perpetrating the attacks have a new name but are likely just the usual Pakistani ISI supplied (note the use of military explosives not typically available except through an agency like the ISI) usual Islamist suspects.
from Stratfor:
The crisis is still in full swing with reports indicating that, along with earlier attacks carried out by gunmen on Mumbai’s central train station, a popular cafe and a theater, hostage situations have developed in two of the city’s most prestigious hotels — the Oberoi and the Taj Mahal — as well as in Cama Hospital and the Chabad House, where Jews and Israelis are currently being held hostage. Stratfor sources have said that the attackers approached their targets in boats with Pakistani markings; other sources have said the boats might have been registered in Karachi, Pakistan.”
It would appear that Jewish people are being murdered Chabad House by these attackers.
Potential escalation into war between India and Pakistan is a real possibility because of this. The ISI, Pakistan’s intel service has been accused of being behind a lot of attacks on India and Indian property such as the embassy in Afghanistan. These accusations came from the usually cautious Indian government.
Here is the complete 3rd Stratfor report on this situation which I have received tonight. I strongly recommend reading all of it.
Summary
If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray.
Analysis
RELATED SPECIAL TOPIC PAGE
Militant Attacks In Mumbai and Their Consequences
At this point the situation on the ground in Mumbai remains unclear following the militant attacks of Nov. 26. But in order to understand the geopolitical significance of what is going on, it is necessary to begin looking beyond this event at what will follow. Though the situation is still in motion, the likely consequences of the attack are less murky.
We will begin by assuming that the attackers are Islamist militant groups operating in India, possibly with some level of outside support from Pakistan. We can also see quite clearly that this was a carefully planned, well-executed attack.
Given this, the Indian government has two choices. First, it can simply say that the perpetrators are a domestic group. In that case, it will be held accountable for a failure of enormous proportions in security and law enforcement. It will be charged with being unable to protect the public. On the other hand, it can link the attack to an outside power: Pakistan. In that case it can hold a nation-state responsible for the attack, and can use the crisis atmosphere to strengthen the government’s internal position by invoking nationalism. Politically this is a much preferable outcome for the Indian government, and so it is the most likely course of action. This is not to say that there are no outside powers involved — simply that, regardless of the ground truth, the Indian government will claim there were.
That, in turn, will plunge India and Pakistan into the worst crisis they have had since 2002. If the Pakistanis are understood to be responsible for the attack, then the Indians must hold them responsible, and that means they will have to take action in retaliation — otherwise, the Indian government’s domestic credibility will plunge. The shape of the crisis, then, will consist of demands that the Pakistanis take immediate steps to suppress Islamist radicals across the board, but particularly in Kashmir. New Delhi will demand that this action be immediate and public. This demand will come parallel to U.S. demands for the same actions, and threats by incoming U.S. President Barack Obama to force greater cooperation from Pakistan.
If that happens, Pakistan will find itself in a nutcracker. On the one side, the Indians will be threatening action — deliberately vague but menacing — along with the Americans. This will be even more intense if it turns out, as currently seems likely, that Americans and Europeans were being held hostage (or worse) in the two hotels that were attacked. If the attacks are traced to Pakistan, American demands will escalate well in advance of inauguration day.
There is a precedent for this. In 2002 there was an attack on the Indian parliament in Mumbai by Islamist militants linked to Pakistan. A near-nuclear confrontation took place between India and Pakistan, in which the United States brokered a stand-down in return for intensified Pakistani pressure on the Islamists. The crisis helped redefine the Pakistani position on Islamist radicals in Pakistan.
In the current iteration, the demands will be even more intense. The Indians and Americans will have a joint interest in forcing the Pakistani government to act decisively and immediately. The Pakistani government has warned that such pressure could destabilize Pakistan. The Indians will not be in a position to moderate their position, and the Americans will see the situation as an opportunity to extract major concessions. Thus the crisis will directly intersect U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan.
It is not clear the degree to which the Pakistani government can control the situation. But the Indians will have no choice but to be assertive, and the United States will move along the same line. Whether it is the current government in India that reacts, or one that succeeds doesn’t matter. Either way, India is under enormous pressure to respond. Therefore the events point to a serious crisis not simply between Pakistan and India, but within Pakistan as well, with the government caught between foreign powers and domestic realities. Given the circumstances, massive destabilization is possible — never a good thing with a nuclear power.
This is thinking far ahead of the curve, and is based on an assumption of the truth of something we don’t know for certain yet, which is that the attackers were Muslims and that the Pakistanis will not be able to demonstrate categorically that they weren’t involved. Since we suspect they were Muslims, and since we doubt the Pakistanis can be categorical and convincing enough to thwart Indian demands, we suspect that we will be deep into a crisis within the next few days, very shortly after the situation on the ground clarifies itself.
End of Strafor report.
More links..
From Ottawa Citizen Thursday Nov 27
MUMBAI – Militants holed up at a Jewish centre in Mumbai, the embattled city where terrorist attacks have killed more than 100 people, have called an Indian television channel to offer talks with the government for the release of hostages.
“Ask the government to talk to us and we will release the hostages,” the man, identified by the India TV channel as Imran, said, speaking in Urdu in what sounded like a Kashmiri accent.
Putting to bed the myth Islam is a race, a white Canadian women of Christian heritage was shocked to discover that after converting to Islam and running pro Jihadi web sites, her visit to Pakistan was sheer hell for all the attempts to kidnap her and other common crimes against foreigners.
Story below:
Published: Thursday, November 13, 2008
VANCOUVER – Canadian officials were working with their counterparts in northwest Pakistan Thursday in a bid to win the release of a B.C. woman who was kidnapped Tuesday along with her three local guides.
A Foreign Affairs spokeswoman confirmed a report in The Daily Times in Lahore that negotiations are continuing to free Khadija Abdul Qahaar, 52, formerly of West Vancouver.
She was seized at gunpoint on Tuesday while travelling to record video footage for a British journalist.
I can’t think of a single conversation I have had about the actions of Islam in the world today where someone if not everyone made specious comparisons abut Christianity and or the United States. I won’t bore anyone with the spectrum of cases made but this one is of immediate use to me.
“The United States has nuclear weapons so why shouldn’t Iran?”
My usual retort is that the police have high speed cars and modern weaponry so why shouldn’t street thugs?
But I feel that a more careful analysis of this logical fallacy would serve better in a more general sense, to deal with the majority if not the totality of Islam Vs. western principles.
Sam Harris in his most excellent book ‘End of Faith’ uses the rhetorical device of ‘the perfect weapon’. His argument runs something like this..
‘Imagine the perfect weapon. One which could do as little or as much damage as you wanted. One which could service a specific target anywhere under any conditions or en extremis, destroy the world’. His argument runs, what would Usama Bin laden do with such a weapon? George Bush? Tony Blair? Any member of Al Queda or the Islamic brotherhood or any other Jihadi group for that matter. The Israelis? The various Palestinian factions.
The answers of course are so obvious that it truly is a rhetorical question. But let’s have a look at the real world and see what various agencies are actually doing in that vein.
Iran as we all know by now is feverishly developing nuclear weapons and at a time where there economy is in serious trouble. They are under no existential threat whatsoever and building nuclear weapons is one of the most if not the most expensive public works project a nation can undertake. Usama has shown off a ‘fatwa’ he received saying that it is in accordance with Islamic law to use nuclear weapons on the infidel. Pakistan, not a nation known for its wealth or its technical achievements also built nuclear weapons and Libya had a nuclear program until it was ended by the United states. Thanks to A.Q. Khan’s nuclear ‘wal-mart’ a number of nuclear weapons programs where started in the Islamic world. To quote Mr. Khan, “The Christians have a bomb, The Jews have a bomb, now we have the Islamic Bomb!” That statement itself is a kind of relativism and a dangerous absurdity. However the important contrast is Islamic and western weapons systems developments.
From Israel to the United States western nations spend substantial percentages of their GDP’s in pursuit of more and better weapons systems. One may ask why as they already have the worlds most sophisticated and lethal nuclear bombs on earth. The answer is revealing.
The united states spends vast resources attempting to build weapons which will gather better intelligence on the battlefield. to keep their own soldiers out of harms way, to improve targeting systems and penetrating systems so that only specific targets can be neutralized from a terrorist holding a school full of children hostage to a communications array with as little collateral damage as possible.
Islamists have as their specific agenda, to spread maximum damage to as many people as possible and ideally ones that create the greatest sense of loss to its host nation. Children, medical personnel or just a square full of Sunday shoppers. The loss of the terrorist in the process is of little concern either way.
The US spends tend of billions developing unmanned aerial vehicles which can both deliver a blow to a target or bring supplies to the battlefield without sending a pilot into harms way.
Islamics find ways of recruiting younger children to martyr themselves and develop better explosives. Bin Laden’s son has a new branch of Al Queda dedicated to recruiting mentally retarded people and drug addicts to become suicide bombers who are often detonated by remote control removing even the odious mitigating factor of martyrdom. We saw some of this at a pet mart in Iraq.
To the US, a city block with a single terrorist in it surrounded by nurses and kindergarten children is a serious logistical problem. To a terrorist, its a target rich environment. It’s easy to see that Sam Harris’s rhetorical device is in practice and the results are in. We do know how these weapons would be used. We don’t have to imagine.
It may also be worth noting that the US England and France among other western and post Christian nations have had nuclear weapons for quite some time already and had they felt a need for a decisive victory against Islamic terrorism they could have achieved it without a noticeable decrease in their deterrent stockpiles.
Eeyore for Vladtepesblog
According to evidence tabled in London terror trial, Aabid Khan chatted with members of Toronto 18
Stewart Bell, National Post Published: Wednesday, October 22, 2008
REUTERS/West Yorkshire Police/HandoutAabid Hussain Khan, 23, is seen in this undated handout photo.
TORONTO — A British man convicted of terrorism-related charges intended to use Toronto as a base for sending recruits to training camps in Pakistan, according to evidence tabled at his trial in London.
In online discussions seized by British counter-terrorism police, Aabid Khan talked about renting basement apartments around Toronto where recruits could stay before and after their overseas weapons training.
The Internet exchanges show how Khan used the Internet to recruit men to fly to Pakistan for what he called “commando training.” He said his purpose was to “cause trouble for kuffar [non-Muslims] … cause fear and panic in their countries.”
The 23-year-old from West Yorkshire visited Toronto in 2005 and allegedly met members of the so-called Toronto 18 group. He was arrested in the U.K. in 2006 several days after the RCMP began arresting the Toronto 18, who were charged with being part of a terrorist group that allegedly plotted to storm the Parliament buildings in Ottawa and detonate truck bombs in downtown Toronto.
In segment four one may note that one of the main terrorists lives in Toronto Canada
Editor’s Note: This is part one of a four-part report by Stratfor founder and Chief Intelligence Officer George Friedman on the U.S. presidential debate on foreign policy, to be held Sept. 26. Stratfor is a private, non-partisan intelligence service with no preference for one candidate over the other. We are interested in analyzing and forecasting the geopolitical impact of the election and, with this series, seek to answer two questions: What is the geopolitical landscape that will confront the next president, and what foreign policy proposals would a President McCain or a President Obama bring to bear? For media interviews, email **@******or.com or call 512-744-4309.
By George Friedman
It has often been said that presidential elections are all about the economy. That just isn’t true. Harry Truman’s election was all about Korea. John Kennedy’s election focused on missiles, Cuba and Berlin. Lyndon Johnson’s and Richard Nixon’s elections were heavily about Vietnam. Ronald Reagan’s first election pivoted on Iran. George W. Bush’s second election was about Iraq. We won’t argue that presidential elections are all about foreign policy, but they are not all about the economy. The 2008 election will certainly contain a massive component of foreign policy.
We have no wish to advise you how to vote. That’s your decision. What we want to do is try to describe what the world will look like to the new president and consider how each candidate is likely to respond to the world. In trying to consider whether to vote for John McCain or Barack Obama, it is obviously necessary to consider their stands on foreign policy issues. But we have to be cautious about campaign assertions. Kennedy claimed that the Soviets had achieved superiority in missiles over the United States, knowing full well that there was no missile gap. Johnson attacked Barry Goldwater for wanting to escalate the war in Vietnam at the same time he was planning an escalation. Nixon won the 1968 presidential election by claiming that he had a secret plan to end the war in Vietnam. What a candidate says is not always an indicator of what the candidate is thinking.
I am late posting anything on this as I wanted to metaphorically at least let some of the dust settle on the attack before I posted. Ideally, I wish to speak about things that will and are happening as ongoing evens on this blog and on attacks such as this one I prefer to wait till some decent data is in to post it as well as add hopefully some meaningful commentary. One thing is certain. Islamic terrorists are easily able to attack highly sensitive targets within the heart of Pakistan. Something they where not able to do under Musharaff. In fact, since Musharaff left office we have seen attacks on the Danish Embassy in Islamabad as well this Marriott hotel attack, one which used over 2600 Lbs. of military grade explosives, (this itself is meaningful) and one which was within a few miles of the Presidential house while a high level cabinet meeting was taking place. An excellent analysis is available on Stratfor.com and for members is well worth reading.
Below are various articles. I will update as good ones become apparent to me. I believe the thing to note is, this is not an isolated incident. We can expect more attacks, more frequently and more vicious both within Pakistan but in India and Afghanistan as well.
I also would reasonably expect one outside of this theater altogether and in the west in the foreseeable future.
September 22, 2008