Category Archives: Stratfor

Stratfor: Iran, Russia, when is Obama Bush?

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Very interesting analysis by Stratfor on Iran and Russia. I find the way they think facinating and agree or no, there is a lot to learn in this analysis. In foreign policy the ways Obama is identical to, and in some ways, more Bush than Bush is worth the read alone. Enjoy and please do comment.

Eeyore

Hypothesizing on the Iran-Russia-U.S. Triangle
August 10, 2009

By George Friedman

For the past several weeks, STRATFOR has focused on the relationship between Russia and Iran. As our readers will recall, a pro-Rafsanjani demonstration that saw chants of “Death to Russia,” uncommon in Iran since the 1979 revolution, triggered our discussion. It caused us to rethink Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Russia just four days after Iran’s disputed June 12 presidential election, with large-scale demonstrations occurring in Tehran. At the time, we ascribed Ahmadinejad’s trip as an attempt to signal his lack of concern at the postelection unrest. But why did a pro-Rafsanjani crowd chant “Death to Russia?” What had the Russians done to trigger the bitter reaction from the anti-Ahmadinejad faction? Was the Iranian president’s trip as innocent as it first looked?

A Net Assessment Re-examined
At STRATFOR, we proceed with what we call a “net assessment,” a broad model intended to explain the behavior of all players in a game. Our net assessment of Iran had the following three components:

Despite the rhetoric, the Iranian nuclear program was far from producing a deliverable weapon, although a test explosion within a few years was a distinct possibility.
Iran essentially was isolated in the international community, with major powers’ feelings toward Tehran ranging from hostile to indifferent. Again, rhetoric aside, this led Iran to a cautious foreign policy designed to avoid triggering hostility.
Russia was the most likely supporter of Iran, but Moscow would avoid becoming overly involved out of fears of the U.S. reaction, of uniting a fractious Europe with the United States and of being drawn into a literally explosive situation. The Russians, we felt, would fish in troubled waters, but would not change the regional calculus.
This view — in short, that Iran was contained — remained our view for about three years. It served us well in predicting, for example, that neither the United States nor Israel would strike Iran, and that the Russians would not transfer strategically significant weapons to Iran.

A net assessment is a hypothesis that must be continually tested against intelligence, however. The “Death to Russia” chant could not be ignored, nor could Ahmadinejad’s trip to Moscow.

As we probed deeper, we found that Iran was swirling with rumors concerning Moscow’s relationship with both Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Little could be drawn from the rumors. Iran today is a hothouse for growing rumors, and all our searches ended in dead ends. But then, if Ahmadinejad and Khamenei were engaging the Russians in this atmosphere, we would expect rumors and dead ends.

Interestingly, the rumors were consistent that Ahmadinejad and Khamenei wanted a closer relationship to Russia, but diverged on the Russian response. Some said the Russians already had assisted the Iranians by providing intelligence ranging from Israeli networks in Lebanon to details of U.S. and British plans to destabilize Iran through a “Green Revolution” like the color revolutions that had ripped through the former Soviet Union (FSU).

Equally interesting were our Russian sources’ responses. Normally, they are happy to talk, if only to try to mislead us. (Our Russian sources are nothing if not voluble.) But when approached about Moscow’s thinking on Iran, they went silent; this silence stood out. Normally, our sources would happily speculate — but on this subject, there was no speculation. And the disciplined silence was universal. This indicated that those who didn’t know didn’t want to touch the subject, and that those who did know were keeping secrets. None of this proved anything, but taken together, it caused us to put our net assessment for Iran on hold. We could no longer take any theory for granted. Continue Reading →

Russia takes notes on Iran, and Twitter

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Interestingly, Russian cyberwar artists seem to have managed to keep Twitter off line for several consecutive days now. Why one may wonder, would Russia spend any resources to make sure Twitter cannot function.

As Stratfor reported, there is a Georgian blogger who is well read and respected who routinely posts to Twitter as well as his own blog. Clearly, Moscow noticed the extent to which Twitter played a part in fomenting a peoples rebelion in the streets of Iran.

Below, the Stratfor report:

Georgia: Single Blogger Targeted Through Attacks on Social-Media Sites
August 7, 2009
With a single Georgian blogger as the target, Twitter, Facebook, LiveJournal and Google’s Blogger were attacked with Twitter facing a site-wide outage, CNET News reported Aug. 6, citing Max Kelly, chief security officer at Facebook. “It was a simultaneous attack across a number of properties targeting him to keep his voice from being heard,” Kelly said of the blogger with the account name “Cyxymu,” which is the name of a Georgian town.

Stratfor: Egypt: Plot To Kill Israeli Ambassador Uncovered

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Egypt: Plot To Kill Israeli Ambassador Uncovered

August 8, 2009
Egyptian security forces uncovered a plot to kill Israel’s ambassador to Egypt and have arrested the suspects involved in the plan, Al-Masri Al-Youm reported Aug. 8. The suspects are members of the Zeitoun militant group, and according to security officials have been planning since 2007 to shoot Ambassador Shalom Cohen and blow up his home and the Israeli Embassy in Cairo. During their interrogation, the suspects claimed they were unable to get close enough to carry out their plan due to heavy Israeli security. The men also claimed to have trained in the Gaza Strip for the attack, and said they were also planning to blow up an Israeli-Egyptian natural gas pipeline, and Christian and Muslim religious sites in Egypt. Egyptian officials said the suspects likely did not have the capability to carry out the attacks.

Twitter taken out by DDOS attack. Target Georgian blogger

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This SITREP from Stratfor, explains why Twitter was down all day yesterday, and shows other targets of the DDOS attack.

Georgia: Single Blogger Targeted Through Attacks on Social-Media Sites
August 7, 2009
With a single Georgian blogger as the target, Twitter, Facebook, LiveJournal and Google’s Blogger were attacked with Twitter facing a site-wide outage, CNET News reported Aug. 6, citing Max Kelly, chief security officer at Facebook. “It was a simultaneous attack across a number of properties targeting him to keep his voice from being heard,” Kelly said of the blogger with the account name “Cyxymu,” which is the name of a Georgian town.

Russia, Georgia: Georgian Blogger Blames Moscow For Attack
August 7, 2009
The Georgian blogger known as Cyxymu blamed the Kremlin for the attack on Aug. 7, The Guardian reported. Cyxymu was the target of a cyberattack on Aug. 6 that affected hundreds of millions of Web users. “Maybe it was carried out by ordinary hackers but I’m certain the order came from the Russian government,” Cyxmu said. Cyxmu is the Latinized name for Abkhazia, one of Georgia’s breakaway republics. Cyxmu, who gave his real name as Georgy, is an active critic of Moscow’s politics in the Caucasus and was the victim of a similar attack last year that crashed LiveJournal.

‘Dutch’ citizens arrested in Kenya for aiding al Shabaab

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Kenya: Police Arrest 4 Dutch Citizens Aiding Al Shabaab
July 29, 2009
Kenyan police arrested four Dutch citizens suspected of aiding Somalia’s al Shabaab militant group, Reuters reported July 29, citing a statement by a Kenyan official. Three of the four men were born in Morocco, and one was born in Somalia, and they were all carrying Dutch passports at the time of their arrest. The men were arrested on their way to Kiunga near the Kenya-Somalia border, and police said the four men were likely part of the trend of foreigners heading to Somalia to provide al Shabaab with humanitarian and technical assistance. The men, all 21 years old according to their passports, claimed to be tourists.

Sweden: Arms handed to FARC via Venezuela

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The above headline should surprise no-one at all. However in light of news today of FARC attacks on Columbian officials attempting to deal with illegal Coca crops, I felt this needs attention, that Venezuela is now effectivly using FARC as an anti Columbian proxy military force.

First, the report on Swedish weapons from PressTV Iran:
FARC rebels

FARC rebels


Sweden has expressed concern over revelations that Swedish weapons, sold to Venezuela, have found their way into the hands of Colombia’s leftist FARC rebels.

The Swedish government demanded explanations from the Venezuelan authorities on Monday over reports indicating that Swedish-made anti-tank rocket launchers have been discovered in an arms cache belonging to anti-government Colombian fighters known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Speaking on the recent development, Jens Eriksson, a Swedish government advisor told reporters, “We have asked the officials of the government of Venezuela to give us information on how they believe this material was found in Colombia.”

“We have it confirmed that a small amount of (defense) material made in Sweden has been found in a FARC camp,” he went on to say.

Authorities of the Saab Bofors company that produced the weapons say that the arms were sold under accords that prohibit the resale of weapons.

Commenting on the recent event, Saab Bofors’ Chief Executive, Tomas Samuelsson said on Monday, “All countries that we export to have to sign an ‘end user’ certificate otherwise export will not be permitted. Unfortunately, sometimes a weapon shows up where it shouldn’t be but that is very rare. When that happens, it is normally theft.”

Sweden’s claim drew ire from Venezuelan authorities, with its Interior Minister Tareck El Aissami condemning Sweden’s account as a ‘new attack’ on Venezuela.

Sweden maintains that the arms purchased by the leftist Hispanic nation should not land in the territories held by South America’s oldest Communist rebels who fight against the central government in Colombia.

Colombian officials fear that the weapons might be used to strengthen anti-government campaigns launched by the FARC guerrillas.

Venezuela, though, has on different occasions denied helping the far-left rebels who have been fighting the central government in Colombia for around 45 years.

ARQN/SME/MMA

Next, a Stratfor report on a recent attack by FARC on Columbian security:

Colombia: FARC Militants Attack Colombian Soldiers, Civilians
July 28, 2009
An attack by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) on a boat traveling down a river in Choco department, Colombia, has left five dead, five injured and up to 10 missing, El Tiempo reported July 28, citing reports from several local media sources. FARC militants used assault rifles in the attack, which sunk the boat carrying Colombian soldiers and civilians that were going to eradicate illegal coca crops.

Stratfor: Return of classical terrorism. Greece

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By Fred Burton and Ben West

stratfor-logo

Greek anti-terrorism police officer Nektarios Savas was shot and killed June 17 while guarding a state witness in an Athens neighborhood. Savas was parked in an unmarked vehicle outside the residence of Sofia Kyriakidou, the wife and key witness in the trial of Angeletos Kanas, a convicted member of a defunct Greek militant group. At 6:20 a.m., shortly after sunrise in Athens, Savas had just gotten coffee and was settling in for his shift when two gunmen approached his vehicle and fired 24 rounds into it, hitting him 18 times and wounding him fatally. The assassins then sped away on motorcycles driven by two other accomplices. Savas was never able to draw his weapon.

Although the witness Savas was protecting was in the house at the time of the shooting, the gunmen do not appear to have made any attempt to harm her.

Two groups claimed responsibility for the murder, “Revolutionary Sect” and “Rebel Sect,” but groups using slight variations of these names have claimed responsibility for dozens of attacks so far this year. It is very common for militant groups to claim responsibility for attacks using different names to confuse their pursuers. We believe the group behind most of the recent attacks is “Revolutionary Struggle” (EA).

EA (its initials in Greek) is thought to be a spinoff from the Greek terrorist group November 17 (N-17) and has been operational since at least October 2003. It shares a similar ideology with N-17, which rejected democracy, capitalism and outside influence in Greece — especially from the United States. EA rejects EU policies in Greece that it claims hurt the working class. EA was very vocal in the run-up to the 2004 Olympics in Athens, carrying out attacks against businesses and the police to protest the high levels of security in the country and the high price tag that came with hosting the games. Continue Reading →

Stratfor: June 29 analysis on Iran

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The bolding of one paragraph is mine.

Eeyore

The Real Struggle in Iran and Implications for U.S. Dialogue

June 29, 2009



By George Friedman

Ongoing Coverage and Updates
Speaking of the situation in Iran, U.S. President Barack Obama said June 26, “We don’t yet know how any potential dialogue will have been affected until we see what has happened inside of Iran.” On the surface that is a strange statement, since we know that with minor exceptions, the demonstrations in Tehran lost steam after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for them to end and security forces asserted themselves. By the conventional wisdom, events in Iran represent an oppressive regime crushing a popular rising. If so, it is odd that the U.S. president would raise the question of what has happened in Iran.

In reality, Obama’s point is well taken. This is because the real struggle in Iran has not yet been settled, nor was it ever about the liberalization of the regime. Rather, it has been about the role of the clergy — particularly the old-guard clergy — in Iranian life, and the future of particular personalities among this clergy.

Ahmadinejad Against the Clerical Elite
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ran his re-election campaign against the old clerical elite, charging them with corruption, luxurious living and running the state for their own benefit rather than that of the people. He particularly targeted Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an extremely senior leader, and his family. Indeed, during the demonstrations, Rafsanjani’s daughter and four other relatives were arrested, held and then released a day later. Continue Reading →

Stratfor analyses Sarkozy’s burka ban. We analyze that.

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Stratfor, the premiere geopolitical think tank rapidly growing in esteem and influence throughout the western world has done something interesting in terms of the ‘anti jihad’.

Typically, Stratfor looks at Islamic immigration into the western world as fundamentally no different than any other historical wave of immigration. They feel that negative reaction to Islam and the west is a consequence of shrinking economies and that there is no real difference in terms of effects on the west by Islam as there was by any other wave of immigration which ultimately integrates while perhaps changing the flavour of the host countries a little bit.

tower

However even Stratfor has to admit that a cartoon published in Denmark can have massive geopolitical consequences across the world and recently Stratfor noticed that a mere rumor of handling a Muslim holy book in a way immigrants don’t like in Greece was the cause of week long riots.

Today, Stratfor released an analysis of Sarkozy’s statement on mandatory Muslim dress for women saying that there is no place in a secular France for signs of submission to men as the Burka shows.

While I disagree fundamentally with the stance Sarkozy chose first lets look at the Stratfor analysis to the best of my ability while still sticking to the two paragraph quote limit the copyright allows. First, it is noteworthy that this is a party line crosser. That is to say, one can easily cross party lines when talking about this dress code without necessarily being a cross dresser. Communists and left wing feminists are right with conservatives on the issue of the burka in France. A six month study has been commissioned by the French government to determine if a ban is to be implemented.

Ultimately, Stratfor’s concern is what sort of backlash will be felt from Muslim groups and nations as a consequence of Sarkozy’s speech to the joint sessions of Parliament in France. From Stratfor:

Indeed, reports are already surfacing of foreign criticism of Sarkozy’s speech. These have included a statement from the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB), an organization representing the interests of more than 500 Muslim groups across the United Kingdom (but not as linked to the British government as the French Council is to the French government). The MCB said Sarkozy’s comments that women are forced to wear the burka were offensive and that governments should not determine what individuals wear. The MCB also said that France should take the lead in enhancing cooperation among Muslims and non-Muslims rather than increasing the rift.

Outside Europe, Sarkozy’s statements have met with opposition from Muslim countries, particularly those with conservative Muslim populations. The Saudi press has openly expressed its distaste with Sarkozy’s policy. Meanwhile, The Times of India has reported on Indian women speaking out against the idea of the ban. While only a small percentage of Muslim women wear the burka, which moderate Muslims consider a repressive garment, Sarkozy’s tone could make Muslims see the step as the beginning of more anti-Muslim moves.

Stratfor then goes on to try and link anti immigration parties as being overall ignored continent wide in Europe and discrediting any anti Islamic sentiments as essentially parochial and not different than any other anti immigration feeling typical of economic down times. Continue Reading →

US teacher shot dead in Mauritania.

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How loathsome. A teacher, one who could probably be making a ton of money in the USA for not teaching as anyone who follows the debacle of how the teachers union in the USA manages to make it impossible to fire a teacher no matter what they do or do not do; a teacher who probably made next to nothing in a crap hole nation trying to help it get out of third world status was shot dead by Muslim Al Queda merely for being an American.

USteacherThis murder, and that is what it was, there is no strategic or military value to this man except he was an infidel and American and Al Queda in the Islamic Magreb instructed all sympathisers to attack, terrorize and generally act like Muslims are instructed to.

According to Stratfor:

An American was shot and killed June 23 in the El Kasr neighborhood of Nouakchott, Mauritania, by two young men. The American, who was teaching computer and language classes at a local school that he owned, was confronted by a group of men as he was getting out of his car in front of the school at 8:30 a.m. local time. A police officer says two men initially tried to kidnap him, but when the American resisted their attempts to bind him and put him in their vehicle, they shot him several times in the head from close range, killing him.