This is a powerful statement by the US in terms of its commitment to South Korea. However, North Korea’s pattern seems to be to provoke once the last provocation has died down, as in their estimation the Western mind set cannot focus for more than a few news cycles. North Korea sunk the Chon An and killed 40 plus South Korean navy personnel, Then after a while, a South Korean aircraft went missing and 2 Air-force people aboard. I have no idea what happened to them I didn’t follow that story after the disappearance.

Then the recent attack on the ‘Disputed’ yet clearly South Korean Island. My guess is, the USS George Washington will sail around the area for 3 weeks while the North prepares it’s next outrage and once the ship has left they will commit it. North Korea may be evil, may not care one bit about the safety or well being of its own people and may be prepared to see some or all of them die in pointless provocations, but they are not stupid.

I find what is taking place in Korea to be extremely distressing. And of course, one cannot determine the thoughts and motives of a madman. So how can you build a response or model the future based on a leader like Kim, who has contempt for the welfare of his own people.

STRATFOR, to whom I have subscribed for a few years now, explains (paraphrasing and taking liberties) that Kim’s son, who is the next ’emperor’ of NORK is consolidating his power by staging an artillery attack on South Korea, hoping for a military response presumably, that will force the military to look to him for leadership, once again showing his profound contempt for the lives of his citizens.

There are lots of possible other explanations ranging from a desire to actually use one of their nuclear weapons, a cover for Iranian activities hoping to divert US attention and military assets away from the Gulf, and hoping for a south Korean military response to use as background for one of Kim’s Musical theatre extravaganzas Kim is so fond of. Nothing like the 1812 overture with real artillery especially if it is raining down on your own starved peasants.

In any case, here is a video showing some of what happened.

Officials in Seoul say North Korean soldiers fired two rounds toward a guard post, and South Korean soldiers immediately responded with three shots. The incident raises tension before next month’s G-20 summit in Seoul.

May 20, 2010 STRATFOR
North Korea continued its steadfast denials of involvement in the sinking of the South Korean warship ChonAn and said it would send its own investigators to conduct a probe, while warning that any punishment against the North would spark war, AP reported May 20. The all-out war to be undertaken will be a “sacred war involving the whole nation, all the people and the whole state,” a spokesman for North Korea’s National Defense Commission said, according to a report carried by the state-run Korea Central News Agency. Pyongyang warned the United States and Japan to “act with discretion.”

May 20, 2010  Stratfor:
An international probe found that North Korea attacked the ChonAn warship with a heavy torpedo in March, South Korea announced, Yonhap reported May 20. An international team of experts reached the conclusion after scrutinizing the wreckage of the 1,200-ton patrol ship and other evidence collected from the scene, including North Korean torpedo parts. The team confirmed that a few small submarines and a mother ship supporting them left a North Korean naval base in the West Sea 2-3 days prior to the attack and returned to port 2-3 days after the attack.

From The BBC:

The Cheonan sank after an as yet unexplained blast on 26 March
South Korea’s defence minister has said those responsible for the deaths of 46 sailors on board a warship that sank after an explosion must “pay a price”.

Kim Tae-young promised “punitive action” against “the perpetrators who killed our soldiers.”

He did not specify what form this could take. South Korea has not directly blamed North Korea – and Pyongyang has denied any role.

The Cheonan sank after a “close-range” blast that split it in two.

>Last month, a mass funeral was held for the 46 sailors, including six whose bodies have not been recovered.

Aluminium fragments

Many South Koreans believe North Korea sank the ship, correspondents say.

We should deal some kind of blow against those forces which made our officers and men sacrifice their lives

>Kim Tae-young
South Korean Defence Minister

What if North Korea was to blame?
The ship has been salvaged from the sea bed and is being examined by an international team of naval experts trying to find out what caused it to sink close to the North Korean border on 26 March.

The South Korean defence minister has said a torpedo strike is among the most likely causes.

So far the investigation team has said only that they have found evidence of an underwater explosion and it is not known whether fragments of any weapon have been discovered.

Mr Kim said officials were scrutinising pieces of aluminium, a key material in making a torpedo, that were picked up from the disaster area.

“I believe that, by thoroughly and completely getting to the bottom of the incident to the maximum extent possible, we should deal some kind of blow against those forces which made our officers and men sacrifice their lives for their country,” the defence minister said on KBS television.

North and South Korea are still technically at war, since the 1950-53 conflict ended without a peace treaty.

Over the years there have been several naval clashes off the west coast of the peninsula, in the area where the Cheonan went down.