Category Archives: Out and out war
George Friedman: On the state of the Iran US war
Many years ago, prior to Obama, I subscribed to a geopolitical news service called, Strafor. A neologism for Strategic forecasting. It was really a breath of fresh air to read. At the time it was way more than I could afford, but I made the sacrifice of other things and paid for it. And it continued to be a great source of proper news, in a way sort of like the CBC was prior to Trudeau Senior in Canada. Then along came Obama and suddenly Stratfor was just as much a propaganda organ as everywhere else.
I wasn’t the only one to notice this. According to a woman that ran a radio podcast thing I was on frequently back in the day, various high ranking US military officers had reported the same observed transformation.
The man who ran STRATFOR, George Friedman, has apparently moved on to form a new agency called Geopolitical Forecasting. I am giving it a trial run for a month to see what I think.
Here is a video interview he did on the Iran war. And yes, it is very much in the style of STRATFOR. FWIW I also read his book, The Future of War, which is a riveting read. And he explains a little in this interview what he got right and what he didn’t see coming.
For those that like rage bait, gossip level politics or the kinds of active measures that support whatever position you hold on the US Iran war, or on Israel or the US or Iran, you will be disappointed. This will feel very vanilla. Very ‘just the facts ma’am’.
Personally I find it refreshing.
US & Israel intensify attacks on Iran, Persian women start to take back freedom and control from ‘Morality police’
We have heard that the B3 Spirit bombers are also now on the way to Iran.
In the previous post, we talked about the responsibility of the people to now take back power for themselves. The following Tweet is a perfect example of exactly what I meant.
Some items on the current active war between several Middle Eastern nations and the USA
First, this fellow pops up from time to time during major events. He essentially watches a number of sources at once and attempts to do a live update on events as they happen.
The post below is from Facebook. It was meant to show that a strike against Iran, and a very serious one was imminent and assured. While he was obviously correct, the post is still valuable as his reasoning is revealing of battlefield strategy and tactics.
I say we are 3 to 5 days away from Isreal launching a full on strike against Irans military and Nuclear facilities…
As the clock ticks…
The United States just deployed the one weapon system that tells you exactly what is coming next.
11 F-22 Raptors landed at Ovda Airbase in Israel’s Negev Desert today. They flew from RAF Lakenheath in England, supported by seven aerial refueling tankers, covering thousands of miles to reach Israeli soil. One of the original twelve turned back with a suspected fuel leak.
The rest completed the transit and are now sitting on Israeli tarmac.
This has never happened before. Not during the ISIS campaign. Not during Blue Flag exercises. Not during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025.
The F-22 Raptor, the most advanced air superiority fighter ever built, has never been based in Israel for a combat-oriented mission. Until today.
Now understand what the F-22 does, because it does not do what you think.
The F-22 does not bomb nuclear facilities. It does not carry bunker busters. It is not a strike aircraft.
The F-22 is a Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses platform. It kills the systems that protect targets. It neutralizes radar. It destroys surface-to-air missile batteries. It eliminates the S-300 and S-400 systems that Iran has spent decades layering around Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
The F-22 is not the punch. It is the hand that moves the shield out of the way so the punch can land.
Iran’s air defense architecture is the single obstacle between the B-2 Spirit bombers carrying 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker busters and the centrifuge halls buried under 80 meters of granite at Fordow.
The F-22’s entire purpose in this theater is to carve a corridor through that architecture, blind Iranian radar, destroy missile batteries along the ingress route, and ensure the bombers reach their targets without being engaged.
When you deploy your SEAD package to the theater, you are not deterring. You are building the ingress corridor.
Only 195 F-22s were ever built.
Approximately 180 remain operational. The United States just committed 11 of them, roughly 6 percent of the entire operational fleet of its most valuable airframe, to a single base in southern Israel.
You do not forward-deploy 6 percent of an irreplaceable weapons system for signaling.
You deploy it because the mission it was designed for is approaching.
Now connect this to what is already in theater.
Two carrier strike groups with 150-plus aircraft. 500-plus total combat aircraft. 700 tonnes of munitions via C-17. 40 aerial refueling tankers.
Three AWACS for airborne command and control. A P-8A mapping the Strait of Hormuz. Every ship cleared from Bahrain. Hundreds evacuated from Al Udeid. The IRGC massing at the Iraqi border.
Khamenei’s shadow government activated. Modi landing in Israel tomorrow to collect alliance signatures. Geneva on Wednesday. The 48-hour deadline expiring before any of it begins.
And now the SEAD package has arrived.
There is a sequence to air campaigns that has not changed since Desert Storm. First, you position your strike aircraft. Done.
Second, you stage your munitions. Done.
Third, you deploy your tankers for sustained operations. Done.
Fourth, you establish airborne command and control. Done.
Fifth, you map the retaliation corridor. Done.
Sixth, you deploy your SEAD assets to suppress enemy air defenses along the ingress route.
That sixth step happened today.
The seventh step is the phone call.
Germany has advised its citizens in Israel to prepare for airspace closures. India told its citizens to leave Iran. The US Embassy in Beirut is evacuating. Khamenei is dispersing his leadership. Iran is practicing closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Everyone on every side of this conflict is preparing for the same event. The only people not preparing are the ones who think this is still about deterrence.
The F-22s are not in Israel to deter. They are in Israel to clear the sky. And you only clear the sky when something is about to fly through it.
I’ll update this post over the day. But I want this out now for the top live report video. A lot is happening in real time now
Now THIS is interesting. Iran really knows how to piss people off when they especially need not to.
Grok translation:
The provided document is an official statement from the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs (dated February 28, 2026 / 11 Ramadan 1447 AH).
.Here is a clear, accurate English translation:
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia condemns and denounces in the strongest terms the blatant Iranian aggression and the flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the State of Qatar, the State of Kuwait, and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.It affirms its full solidarity with and support for these brotherly states, placing all its capabilities at their disposal to back any measures they may take, and warns of the grave consequences resulting from the continued violation of state sovereignty, the principles of international law, and the norms of international relations.The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia calls on the international community to condemn these attacks and to take all firm measures to confront the Iranian violations that undermine the security and stability of the region.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
February 28, 2026 / 11 Ramadan 1447 AH
[Social media handles and website: @KSAmofa
/ www.mofa.gov.sa] (http://www.mofa.gov.sa])This statement aligns with reports from that date, where Saudi Arabia (along with other Gulf states) issued condemnations following Iranian retaliatory strikes on U.S. assets/bases in the region, amid broader escalations involving U.S./Israel actions against Iran. The language emphasizes regional solidarity against what it portrays as Iranian threats to sovereignty and stability.
Mark Carney statement on the strikes
Spell-craft, Italy, Palestine and chaos
Several days ago, we posted a link to a video created by a group called, Counter-spell. It appears to be an edit of a longer lecture, which I would dearly like to see in total. The Lecture also was given to Young Americans for Liberty, at least as far as I can tell.
I will take the risk of embedding the 38 minute edit (Theirs not mine) of the lecture here as it is so important that one hopes they will not object. If they do, they can leave a comment and I will get in touch with them and sort it out.
The bottom line of the video is the idea that political warfare is an extension of the ancient art of spell craft. That you can cast a spell on a whole population and direct them to act in your interests and against their own with careful use of language.
It is, from our point of view at this late stage of the fall of civilization, impossible to see how this is not true. Anyone who woke up during the casting of one of these spells should likely see it easily as well.
What Stephen Coughlin calls a “Mass line Maoist Narrative Attack” is the correct description of the method by which the spell is cast. Of the weapon that fires the projectile perhaps.
Every famous voice, every news program and personality chanting the same spells, “safe and Effective”. “The Religion of Peace”, “Racist transphobes”, Genocide in Palestine” and frankly dozens more, both more and less subtle but all effective.
This one threw me for a loop though.
Please read this Tweet and watch this video. It is very short:
Dr. Maalouf is an awesome follow. None of what follows is directed at him or should be read as criticism of him.
But this isn’t in any way “chaos”. It doesn’t “look like a literal war zone”. It IS a war zone!
This is targeted and focused violence with a distinct ideological and geopolitical goal. It is to bend the enemy, Italy, into alignment with the attackers goals with the use of planned, focused targeted destruction in a way so organized that all kinds of people from all sides or none, on the issues feel safe filming the destruction with their usually expensive and fragile equipment, not to mention their expensive and fragile selves.
If you put that group of attackers into Hugo Boss uniforms, everyone would instantly know what to do, even the average Italian civilian and they would feel good about piling on to that crowd and disabling it as quickly as possible. They would celebrate each other afterwards and eventually they would have a statue built to them at that spot.
But somehow, the world has been paralyzed into inaction where their own very existence is at stake.
Some Jewish people broke out of the spell after the October 7th attacks, only to discover they had suddenly lost all their leftist friends. Or losing their leftist friends may have been what broke the spell. But if that is what it took to recognize Islamic and leftist antisemitism as a threat, then what will it take for the rest of the population to wake up?
If you see that as chaos, you are feeling sleepy. Very sleepy. Your eyelids are getting heavy. You are falling into a deep, deep sleep.
If you cannot tell the difference between chaos and war, guess who wins.
President Trump to address the nation at 10:00 PM June 21 ET
This appears to be geolocked for Canada. As I find feeds that are not I will put them in the post.
I would like to add one thing to this post in advance of his talk as it is now 1 minute to 10 ET,
One thing we have learned for sure, is that President Trump has solved the main problem he had in his first term. Clearly he has gotten rid of the anti-state actors who sabotaged every effort he made for the US. As he managed to pull this off without any leaks, he clearly has taken the kind of control he needs.
The link below appears to be for Charlie Kirk and is live now.
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1RDGlzNWLPlxL
Israel has launched surgical and military attacks on Iran and its nuclear weapons facilities and expert personnel
UPDATE: Iran launches 100 drones at Israel, oddly, exactly the sort of thing the Israeli military’s new Laser system was created to knock down.
A short while ago, dozens of IAF jets completed the first stage that included strikes on dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets in different areas of Iran.”
…
“Earlier, channels in Iran associated with the Revolutionary Guards reported explosions in Tehran, as Israel launched its preemptive strike in Iran.”“The goal of the operation is to remove the Iranian nuclear threat.”
…
“At the same time, sirens were sounded throughout Israel.“[…]Following a preemptive strike by the State of Israel against Iran, <b>a missile and drone attack is expected against the State of Israel and its civilian population</b> in the immediate timeframe.”
“Therefore, in accordance with his authority under the Civil Defense Law, Defense Minister Israel Katz has signed a special order, pursuant to which a special state of emergency will be imposed throughout the entire territory of the State of Israel.”
The public is urged to follow the instructions of the Home Front Command and the authorities and to remain in protected spaces…
https://twitter.com/TheDeskDotNet/status/1933329588626886687
Netanyahu confirms strikes
We will add items here as we find them. Please feel free to add your own thoughts, observations and news links in the comments.
LIVE commentary from CBN, a biblical perspective
Likely military action to take down the IRI’, Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Weapons efforts appears imminent
It has begun:
Really lucid and well paced explanation of what has taken place
Here is his Telegram:
https://tlgrm.eu/channels/@beholdisraelchannel
The Natanz Nuclear Weapons development facility
https://twitter.com/TheDeskDotNet/status/1933329588626886687
Netanyahu confirms strikes
There are signs and indications everywhere.
As I find reasonable ones they will be added to this post.
I hope that some of you that come across them in your own surfing will put them in the comments under this post and we will add them here as able. For a while, this post will be pinned to the top of the site.
BBC: US to partially evacuate embassy in Iraq over security threats
Reuters: US to pull some personnel from the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran
Newsweek: US Embassy in Middle East Prepares to Evacuate After Warning From Iran
The top US general for the Middle East said Tuesday that China has been providing financial support to Iran, contributing to what he described as Tehran’s “malign behavior” across the region.
“The challenge we have with Iran… 85 to 90 percent of their oil is purchased by China. So, China is effectively supporting and financing Iran’s malign behavior,” US Central Command chief Gen. Erik Kurilla said.
Kurilla pointed to massive amounts of funds still going to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), which runs proxy networks outside of Iran.For all the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app.
Kurilla also highlighted the new sanctions under the Trump administration, which have targeted so-called teapot refineries. “These are refineries along the Chinese coast that these ships take this sanctioned oil… this is 10 percent of all Chinese oil,” he said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.
Five minutes of the exchange with Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump and VP Vance: You’re Gambling with WW III
I was reliably informed that Zelensky has a really nice luxury home in a very exclusive part of Italy, 4 doors down the street from Putin’s home on the same street.
Tracking the Chinese ship cutting cables and doing damage over the past couple of days – Sailed from Russia with Russian captain
A little earlier:
Most recently:
And of course, this:
New system fires U.S. missiles into Russia; Putin alters doctrine
By Mike Glenn THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Ukraine fired American-supplied missiles into Russian territory on the 1,000th day of its war against its invaders, officials said Tuesday, as Russian President Vladimir Putin formally lowered the threshold for his country’s use of nuclear weapons.
Days earlier, the Biden administration reportedly signed off on a policy change allowing Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with the U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS.
The Kremlin said Tuesday that its air defense troops had shot down five Ukrainian missiles and
damaged a sixth, using their S-400 and Pantsir air defense missile systems. Fragments from the damaged ATACMS missile caused a “fire that was quickly extinguished” at a military facility in the target area.
Ukraine had yet to confirm that it launched the attack inside Russian territory using the ATACMS, but the Ukrainian General Staff in Kyiv said in a statement that an attack had taken out a major ammunition arsenal near the Russian city of Krachev.
“The destruction of ammunition depots will continue for the army of the Russian occupiers in order to stop the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine,” the statement said.
Mr. Putin has said the use of American-supplied missiles to strike Russian targets could dramatically escalate the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and could draw NATO into the fight.
The Russian doctrine says a nuclear response would be justified in the face of “aggression by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear country.” That scenario closely mirrors Ukraine’s situation, given the heavy support it has received from the U.S., Britain and France, all nuclear powers.
Mr. Putin would remain the “ultimate authority” on whether to launch a nuclear attack, the Kremlin said.
The Reuters news agency, citing a document posted on the official Russian government website, said the doctrine also notes that “a nuclear response from Russia is possible in the event of a critical threat to its sovereignty, even with conventional weapons; in the event of an attack on Belarus as a member of the Union State; [or] in the event of a massive launch of military aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, other aircraft and their crossing the Russian border.”
Russia also published a propaganda video about how many nukes it would take and where to land them to end Western European civilization.
Is this the new Covid?
The attack on Iran appears to have begun
1. Israel confirms it has struck Iran, as explosions rock Tehran
Blasts heard in Tehran, nearby Karaj • Explosions were also heard in Syria and Iraq, and air defense systems were reportedly activated
Five explosions were reported heard across Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj early on Saturday morning, according to Iranian media, in what is alleged to be the beginning of an Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran.
Israeli officials confirmed to Army Radio that Israel had started striking targets across Iran.
“The IDF is currently attacking precise targets in Iran,” IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said in a statement. “This is in response to persisting attacks by the Iranian regime on the State of Israel.”The IDF is completely prepared in attack and in defense. We are following the developments from Iran and its proxies in the region.”
2. Explosions heard in Iran’s Tehran and nearby Karaj, state media say
DUBAI, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Several loud explosions were heard in Iran’s capital Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj early on Saturday, semi-official Iranian media said, adding that the cause was unknown.
Iran’s state TV said several strong explosions were heard around the capital, but there was no official comment about the source of the explosions.
Israel has been planning a response to a ballistic-missile barrage carried out by Iran on Oct. 1, Tehran’s second direct attack on Israel in six months.Iranian authorities have warned Israel against launching an attack, saying any strike on Iran would be met with a stronger retaliation.
Witnesses in Tehran confirmed hearing loud explosions.
“It was so loud and the sky became red,” said an Iranian resident in Tehran, who asked not to be named.
3. Large explosions
4. Fires at Iran’s missile bases
https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1850107772492300772?t=AJ-m3yuFzCB-jzhIhpucYA&s=19
5. Reports of explosions in Kermanshah, western Iran
Air defenses were reportedly activated near Kermanshah in western Iran on Saturday morning, according to N12.
Kermanshah area contains an Iranian air force base and has been the origin point of many of the UAVs and drones launched against Israel. Warehouses in the area have been attacked before.
6. Israel strikes Iranian military targets, reports of ‘limited’ damage ease escalation fear
DUBAI/JERUSALEM/CAIRO, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Israel bombed military sites in Iran early on Saturday, but its retaliation for an Iranian attack this month did not target the most sensitive oil and nuclear facilities and drew no immediate vows of vengeance.The risk of a wider conflagration between heavily armed Israel and Iran has convulsed a region already on fire with warfare in Gaza and Lebanon, but Tehran’s initial response appeared muted.Israel’s military said scores of jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, and warned its heavily armed arch-foe not to hit back.Iran said its air defences had successfully countered the attack but four soldiers were killed and some locations suffered “limited damage”. A semi-official Iranian news agency said there would be a “proportional reaction” to the Israeli strikes.Tensions between Iran and Israel have grown rapidly since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas, raising fears of a wider regional conflict that could drag in global powers and imperil world energy supplies.Fears of an escalation have increased since Oct. 1 when Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, killing one person in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, in response to earlier Israeli moves.Worsening conflict in Lebanon, where Israel is waging an intense campaign against Iran’s main regional ally Hezbollah to stop it firing rockets into northern Israel, has raised the temperature still further.The United States and other countries responded to Israel’s strikes by calling for an end to the cycle of confrontation. President Joe Biden said it appeared Israel had only struck military targets in its attack and that he hoped they were “the end”.
This post will be updated as information comes in
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader had UN passport, fake ID and weapons at the time of his expiry
All out war with Hezb’allah according to Amir Tsafati: Special situation declared
Russia and the looming war with NATO
First, this appears to be from the UK and US
Trudeau defaults to his poor acting skills and attempts to look like an effective jingoist
The following clip appears to be from the Russian Federation. I assume it is from the UN Security Council. And I assume it is recent.
Below is an AI translation. If anyone speaks Russian well enough to check and correct please leave a comment and I will subtitle it with the corrected titles.
AI Translation for video above:
The neo-Nazi regime has been attacking our territory for a long time, outside the zone of hostilities, carrying out terrorist attacks against civilians and the civil infrastructure of our country. However, such a potential development of the situation will fundamentally change our relationship with the Western camp. If the decision to lift the restrictions is indeed adopted or will be adopted, it will mean that from this moment on, the NATO countries will start a direct war with Russia.
In this case, we will, of course, be forced to make the appropriate decisions with all the consequences resulting from them for the Western aggressors. Our Western colleagues will not be able to avoid responsibility and transfer all the blame to Kiev. As you know, the use of such weapons is possible only when you have access to intelligence data from the US and EU satellites.
Ukraine itself does not have such an opportunity. Only NATO servicemen can program such a weapon.
The following video appears to be of Joe Biden. There is a lot of echo which I removed but the remaining audio, although clear, still was incomprehensible. Someday, the geniuses who make AI software might make a Biden Mumble descrambler. For now, we just have this.
I’m sure there is more out there. Please leave comments and links to related news in the comments for this post.
Thank you.
Major BREAKING Israel has new front with Hizb’allah in all out war
The background: Hizb’allah launched a missile that was unique in construction and payload to that Iranian proxy army. It hit a soccer field near a playground in a Druze village.
It is well known in Israel that one does not fuck with the Druze.
The Druze offered an ultimatum to Israel explaining they had 4 hours to respond to the attack, or the Druze would themselves. This is no idle threat. The Druze do not concern themselves with world opinion or what college LARPers have to say in Montreal. For the background, see RAIR Foundation here.
Israel appears to have wasted no time to engage Hizb’allah which is rumoured to have abandoned some military positions as soon as the Druze threat was public.
Below, a series of updates on what is a breaking story and one with consequence.
This Reddit thread is a must read. It has a lot of background on previous attacks the Druze people have done against the ‘Palestinians’ when they screwed with them.
Approximately an hour ago Hezbollah fired a rocket at the Druze town of Majdal Shams in Northern Israel which exploded in a soccer field resulting in the murder of numerous children:
While Israel has largely ignored Hezbollah’s constant attacks against residents in the North since Oct 8th, it will not be able to do so anymore. There is a generally understood rule that the Druze are not to be messed with as doing so results in dire consequences.
This is something Palestinians learnt all too well in 2022 when a Druze teenager who was seriously injured in a car crash in Jenin was taken off life support from the hospital he was being treated at and kidnapped resulting in his death.
Members of the Druze community in Israel immediately threatened to storm Jenin if his body was not immediately released along with some members of the community throwing explosives along with beating and kidnapping Palestinians in response. After 30 hours in captivity the body of Tiran Fero was unconditionally returned.
Everyone is well aware of Israel’s response after Oct 7th but the response that will be demanded by the Druze even if they have to enter Lebanon alone and on foot to get revenge on Hezbollah will make it seem like a joke. I can’t see Israel being able to prevent the inevitable response nor do I think it will stand in the way. In other words, the tit for tat has ended and Israel will now be in full out war with Hezbollah.
There are reports that Hezbollah has already started abandoning its military positions in Lebanon in anticipation of a severe military response however this is the least of Hezbollah’s worries as there are 250k members of the Druze community who live in Lebanon itself many of whom will want revenge as well.
In 2021, members of the Druze community of Chouya beat and captured members of Hezbollah who fired rockets at Israel endangering their village. As such I expect Hezbollah will not only be attacked by Israel but by the Lebanese Druze community as well.
Attacking the Druze is the definition of kicking a hornets nest. If Hezbollah hasn’t learnt this already they will learn it very soon: You do NOT fuck with the Druze.
Edit: It seems as though Hezbollah already knows what’s coming as they are already trying to deny their involvement in the attack.
In fact, more than they deny the attack, but Russian propaganda is already out claiming the missile that hit the Druze was an Iron Dome missile that went astray.
But it appears that the Israeli response is well under way on behalf of the Druze community…
The photos in this Tweet are NSFW and are of the children killed by the Hizb’allah rocket.
https://twitter.com/KosherCockney/status/1817300896960651558?t=ciAi6l-whIT3Z8Lx4P2AoA&s=19
SFW:
https://twitter.com/KosherCockney/status/1817305556354539845
Iran may want to mumble a few ‘prayers’ as well.