Clare Lopez: Time is up to stop Iran

Nuclear Threat

Time is Up to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Bomb
by Clare M. Lopez
It’s not that unusual to hear hostile remarks directed at the United States from the Iranian regime — but lately, it’s been getting not only personal but frankly contemptuous. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki recently let it be known that “we do not take [U.S. Secretary of State] Mrs. Clinton seriously.” Hostility is normal between mortal enemies. Contempt means they think we’re so weak, we don’t even rate the effort hostility would take.

At this point, even moves intended to show resolve fall flat with Tehran. Despite a U.S. naval build-up in the Persian Gulf that includes stationing two ships armed with anti-missile missiles and providing additional defensive missiles to Sunni regimes in the area, the Iranians remain unimpressed. Just as they were earlier when the Obama administration offered an “outstretched hand” if Iran would “unclench its fist.” Or when president Obama wrote ridiculous letters of supplication and congratulation to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and president Ahmadinejad.

The White House decision not to speak out in support of the Iranian demonstrators who took to the streets to protest rigged presidential elections in June 2009 didn’t seem to win any points with the mullahs either. Instead, the Iranian parliament voted to approve $20 million for exposing human rights abuses in the U.S. Is this country even capable anymore of realizing when it’s being seriously dissed?

Apparently not, because events in the Middle East are closing inexorably on an Iranian demonstration of nuclear weapons status. Years of dithering negotiations have proven utterly ineffective in halting Tehran’s deliberate, determined progress towards acquiring the bomb. The ayatollahs have missed deadline after deadline set by the international community while brazenly forging ahead with nuclear enrichment and a succession of missile delivery system tests. That not one single meaningful consequence has ever followed years of Iranian non-compliance with obligations of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty they willingly signed must be the cause of much chuckling in Tehran’s tea rooms and war rooms. As long as China and Russia can be counted on at the United Nations Security Council to block serious sanctions or any other enforcement action with teeth, Tehran’s brutal dictators have no reason to expect they’ll be called to account. Certainly not by the Obama administration.

The scorn that drips from every comment to or about the U.S. by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his regime’s thugs has been earned. U.S. refusal to acknowledge the state of war declared against us by the Ayatollah Khomeini over 30 years ago, refusal to stand up to the rampant export of Islamic jihadist terrorism across the globe, refusal to impose regime-threatening consequences for failure to end the nuclear weapons program, refusal to stand with brave Iranians who dare to stand for their own liberty, and above all, refusal to confront Tehran’s 2-decade-long alliance with al-Qaeda, have thoroughly convinced the mullahs that they can get away with literally anything.

Even though Tehran has tried to hide its nuclear weapons program under bunkers, mountains, and population centers, given the revelations about it over the years from the Israelis, the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK), and every other Western intelligence service but ours, and despite the thoroughly discredited 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate which said Iran ended its nuclear program in 2003, there’s not much doubt anymore (even at the International Atomic Energy Agency—IAEA) that Iran is moving methodically towards acknowledged status as a nuclear weapons power.

The Iranian-North Korean joint venture on missile development has been coming along nicely with steady advances in technology (such as the use of solid rocket propellant fuel) and range capability (southern Europe by now). Iranian centrifuges spinning at the Natanz show site seem to multiply by the week (what goes on at the covert enrichment sites is anybody’s guess). An obvious nuclear triggering device test program and blueprints for fashioning the hemispherical pits of a nuclear weapon elicit little more than yawns from the U.S. intelligence community, even after both the MEK and IAEA revealed the details.

All that’s really left at this point is the buzzer — or more specifically, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard commander’s finger on the button.

Change is coming to Iran, whether from a new generation of Greens determined to be free, or the gathering internal implosion of a revolution that’s run its course. But the time clock on Iran’s nuclear weapons program is ticking faster than either one of those now. Absent action from the outside, from the U.S., Israel, and/or the international community, Iran will be a nuclear weapons power in the very near future. Whether it chooses to demonstrate that status with a test launch, like India and Pakistan, an out-of-the-blue genocidal bolt against Israel, or a life-altering electro-magnetic pulse attack over the U.S., will soon be out of any of our hands unless somebody stops the mullahs soon and forcibly.

The courageous Dutch politician, Geert Wilders (currently on trial in Amsterdam for daring to speak the truth about Islamic jihad), has called America “The Last Man Standing.” The question is: are we? Are we really?

The Netherlands: Police Evacuate Rail Station

From Stratfor:

February 9, 2010
Police said a train station in the southern Dutch city of Den Bosch was evacuated and suspect was arrested after a bomb threat, Reuters reported Feb. 9. A police spokesman stated that the explosives team is investigating the area, adding that a man was arrested because of his suspicious behavior. Some houses and offices surrounding the station were evacuated and trains to and from the station were halted.

From Infidel:

This is the first youtube video anyone is aware of, of the arrest of the Muslim bomber (Yes the suspect was a Muslim and made references to 9-11 Etc.) wh terrorized a train in the Netherlands.

STRATFOR: Sanctions on Iran will toughen

a href=”http://stratfor.com” target=”_blank”>Iran: U.S., France Call For New Sanctions
February 8, 2010
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Feb. 8 that Iran has left the international community no choice but to pursue new sanctions against the country, Reuters reported. Gates, at a joint news conference with French Defense Minister Herve Morin, said a peaceful resolution to the issue of Iran’s nuclear program is possible, but “it will require all of the international community to work together.” Morin said France is in “complete agreement” with the United States, BBC reported.

Russia moves towards West on Iran

Blomberg: From business week,

Russia Signals Unity With West After Iranian Rocket Launch

Feb 4 2010

By Lucian Kim

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Russia is moving closer to the West on how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program following a rocket launch by the Islamic republic, said Konstantin Kosachyov, the head of the foreign relations committee of Russia’s lower house of parliament.

“Mutual understanding between Russia and its international partners on additional sanctions has clearly improved,” Kosachyov said in an interview with state broadcaster Rossiya 24 today. “The situation is beginning to alarm us increasingly.”

Iran fired a satellite into space yesterday at a ceremony attended by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The launch prompted Western concern that the rocket technology, like Iran’s nuclear program, could have military applications. Iran maintains it has only peaceful intentions.

Russia, a member of the six-country contact group with Iran, has made contradictory statements on the need for more United Nations economic sanctions. President Dmitry Medvedev has indicated a willingness to toughen the trade embargo, while Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has held off from new threats.

“What Iran is trying to do now raises concern because it’s classic dual-use technology,” said Kosachyov. Should Iran one day start producing nuclear warheads, the situation would be even more dangerous if the country had medium- and long-range missiles, he said. Continue Reading →

CDC: Biological Warfare at the 1346 Siege of Caffa

Here is a rather fascinating history of biological warfare on Europeans by Muslims by the Center for Disease Control. Thank you my youtube friend for posting this URL at the CDC

—–

Historical Review

Biological Warfare at the 1346 Siege of Caffa

Mark Wheelis*
*University of California, Davis, California USA

Suggested citation for this article: Wheelis M. Biological warfare at the 1346 siege of Caffa. Emerg Infect Dis [serial online] 2002 Sep [date cited];8. Available from: URL: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol8no9/01-0536.htm


On the basis of a 14th-century account by the Genoese Gabriele de’ Mussi, the Black Death is widely believed to have reached Europe from the Crimea as the result of a biological warfare attack. This is not only of great historical interest but also relevant to current efforts to evaluate the threat of military or terrorist use of biological weapons. Based on published translations of the de’ Mussi manuscript, other 14th-century accounts of the Black Death, and secondary scholarly literature, I conclude that the claim that biological warfare was used at Caffa is plausible and provides the best explanation of the entry of plague into the city. This theory is consistent with the technology of the times and with contemporary notions of disease causation; however, the entry of plague into Europe from the Crimea likely occurred independent of this event.

The Black Death, which swept through Europe, the Near East, and North Africa in the mid-14th century, was probably the greatest public health disaster in recorded history and one of the most dramatic examples ever of emerging or reemerging disease. Europe lost an estimated one quarter to one third of its population, and the mortality in North Africa and the Near East was comparable. China, India, and the rest of the Far East are commonly believed to have also been severely affected, but little evidence supports that belief (1).

A principal source on the origin of the Black Death is a memoir by the Italian Gabriele de’ Mussi. This memoir has been published several times in its original Latin (2,3) and has recently been translated into English (4) (although brief passages have been previously published in translation, see reference [5]). This narrative contains some startling assertions: that the Mongol army hurled plague-infected cadavers into the besieged Crimean city of Caffa, thereby transmitting the disease to the inhabitants; and that fleeing survivors of the siege spread plague from Caffa to the Mediterranean Basin. If this account is correct, Caffa should be recognized as the site of the most spectacular incident of biological warfare ever, with the Black Death as its disastrous consequence. After analyzing these claims, I have concluded that it is plausible that the biological attack took place as described and was responsible for infecting the inhabitants of Caffa; however, the event was unimportant in the spread of the plague pandemic.

Origin of the 14th-Century Pandemic Continue Reading →

Knight takes pawn: U.S. sends in Aegis ships to Iranian waters

US raises stakes on Iran by sending in ships and missiles

Patriot missileA Patriot missile is launched during an Israeli-US military excercise in the Negev desert in southern Israel in February 2001. Photograph: Reuters

Tension between the US and Iran heightened dramatically today with the disclosure that Barack Obama is deploying a missile shield to protect American allies in the Gulf from attack by Tehran.

The US is dispatching Patriot defensive missiles to four countries – Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait – and keeping two ships in the Gulf capable of shooting down Iranian missiles. Washington is also helping Saudi Arabia develop a force to protect its oil installations.

American officials said the move is aimed at deterring an attack by Iran and reassuring Gulf states fearful that Tehran might react to sanctions by striking at US allies in the region. Washington is also seeking to discourage Israel from a strike against Iran by demonstrating that the US is prepared to contain any threat.

The deployment comes after Obama’s attempts to emphasise diplomacy over confrontation in dealing with Iran – a contrast to the Bush administration’s approach – have failed to persuade Tehran to open its nuclear installations to international controls. The White House is now trying to engineer agreement for sanctions focused on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, believed to be in charge of the atomic programme.

Washington has not formally announced the deployment of the Patriots and other anti-missile systems, but by leaking it to American newspapers the administration is evidently seeking to alert Tehran to a hardening of its position.

The administration is deploying two Patriot batteries, capable of shooting down incoming missiles, in each of the four Gulf countries. Kuwait already has an older version of the missile, deployed after Iraq’s invasion. Saudi Arabia has long had the missiles, as has Israel. Continue Reading →

Body bombs and surgical implants.

Here is one Michael Jackson didn’t have.

I added the short Enterprise clip. If any of you have access to it, watch the entire episode of The Chosen Realm from the Star Trek Enterprise series. One has to wonder, if they saw this, why can’t Obama and the people who invent and foist useless crap at us at airports? I wanted to add the clip right after this one where one of the ‘religious aliens’ blows himself up destroying a part of the ship right after this clip using a special detonator that makes the explosives in his blood go-boom but I can’t find that clip anywhere.

[kaltura-widget wid=”0_1yz478iz” width=”410″ height=”364″ addpermission=”3″ editpermission=”3″ /]From the Daily Mail.

????

Terrorists ‘plan attack on Britain with bombs INSIDE their bodies’ to foil new airport scanners

Britain is facing a new Al Qaeda terror threat from suicide ‘body bombers’ with explosives surgically inserted inside them.

Until now, terrorists have attacked airlines, Underground trains and buses by secreting bombs in bags, shoes or underwear to avoid detection.

But an operation by MI5 has uncovered evidence that Al Qaeda is planning a new stage in its terror campaign by inserting ‘surgical bombs’ inside people for the first time.

Body scanner
Body scanner

New weapon: To avoid detection by airport body scanners (above), Al Qaeda are said to be planning to surgically insert explosives into suicide bombers’ bodies

Security services believe the move has been prompted by the recent introduction at airports of body scanners, which are designed to catch terrorists before they board flights. Continue Reading →

Iran to inaugurate missile projects in February

Reuters:

TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran will inaugurate several missile and arms projects next month to coincide with the 31st anniversary of its 1979 Islamic revolution, a Revolutionary Guards commander said on Tuesday.

Guards commander Massoud Jazayeri did not say whether Iran would test-fire new missiles and gave no other details of the planned events. A missile launch would be likely to add to tension with Western powers worried by Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“Iran’s Defense Ministry will inaugurate several missiles and arms projects during the Fajr (Dawn) 10-day period, marking the victory of the 1979 Islamic revolution,” he told a news conference.
New satellite projects would at the same time be unveiled by Iran’s aerospace organization, he said.
Iran marks the revolution’s anniversary from February 1-11, starting on the day in 1979 when the Islamic Republic’s founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to Tehran from exile in France.

In mid-December, Iran said it successfully test-fired a long-range, upgraded Sejil 2 missile. At the time, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the launch was of serious concern to the international community and underlined the case for tougher sanctions against Iran, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter.

The West fears Iran’s nuclear programme is aimed at making bombs. Tehran denies the charge.

Neither Israel nor the United States have ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the dispute. Iran has vowed to retaliate against any attack.

The United States and its European allies are planning to impose further sanctions on Iran after its failure to meet an effective U.S. deadline of December 31 to accept a U.N.-brokered proposal to send its uranium abroad for processing.

Tehran has sought amendments to the deal, under which it would transfer stocks of low-enriched uranium (LEU) abroad and receive fuel in return for a medical research reactor. Tehran says it could produce the fuel itself if it is not able to obtain it from abroad.

On Sunday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would announce “good news” about Iran’s nuclear fuel production in February.

The U.N. Security Council has imposed three rounds of sanctions on Iran since 2006.

(Reporting by Ramin Mostafavi; writing by Fredrik Dahl; editing by David Stamp)

Secret report: Iran bomb closer than ever

From Ynet news with a H/T to Fred over at GAR

Der Spiegel: Intelligence information shows Iran could produce truck-sized nuke bomb this year

Iran’s scientists could produce a basic truck-sized nuclear bomb this year, German Magazine Der Spiegel reported Monday.

Tehran now needs to work on compressing such bomb so it can be fitted on a ballistic missile, the magazine says. According to estimates, Iran could reach that stage by sometime between 2012 and 2014.

Der Spiegel’s report is based on secret intelligence information handed over to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

According to the report, Iran’s nuclear program, which answers to the country’s Defense Ministry, includes a secret military branch that engages in the program’s military aspects and is responsible for Tehran’s nuclear sites.

“The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago,” the German magazine says.

The secret arm, known as the Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications, constitutes “the secret heart of Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” Der Spiegel says.

According to the report, the secret branch is headed by Minister of Science, Research and Technology Kamran Daneshjoo and senior scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who also serves as a senior Revolutionary Guard officer.

According to the information presented in the report, a computer seized in Iran years ago contained highly volatile information, which convinced officials that the Iranian regime is eager to develop a nuclear bomb and is at advanced stages of the project

From STRATFOR:

Iran: Tehran Has Advanced Nuclear-Bomb Plans – Intelligence Dossier
January 25, 2010
There is a secret military branch of Iran’s nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry, Tehran plans to develop a nuclear bomb and those plans are advanced, Spiegel reported Jan. 25, citing an intelligence dossier built from sources in Iran and high-level defectors. The document is reportedly being studied by diplomatic circles in the United States, Israel and Germany. At the heart of Iranian bomb development is a center that is a suborganization of Tehran’s Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, or Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications, and the country’s nuclear energy agency. The agency supervises uranium enrichment and the FEDAT focuses on the construction of a nuclear warhead that will reportedly be used in Shahab missiles. The Iranian government has reportedly classified the technology as “feasible.”

Iran: Tehran Has Advanced Nuclear-Bomb Plans – Intelligence DossierJanuary 25, 2010There is a secret military branch of Iran’s nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry, Tehran plans to develop a nuclear bomb and those plans are advanced, Spiegel reported Jan. 25, citing an intelligence dossier built from sources in Iran and high-level defectors. The document is reportedly being studied by diplomatic circles in the United States, Israel and Germany. At the heart of Iranian bomb development is a center that is a suborganization of Tehran’s Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, or Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications, and the country’s nuclear energy agency. The agency supervises uranium enrichment and the FEDAT focuses on the construction of a nuclear warhead that will reportedly be used in Shahab missiles. The Iranian government has reportedly classified the technology as “feasible.”

Indian intel suspects gliding terror from LET in Pakistan

From Gates of Vienna:

LeT acquires 50 para-gliding equipment

NEW DELHI: Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba may be attempting to send its terrorists to glide into India. Security agencies have expressed this

fear after it has come to light that the Pakistan-based terrorist outfit has acquired more than 50 para-gliding equipment from Europe.

Intelligence alert on the sale, setting off alarm bells on a possible air-borne suicide attack, after the sea route adopted in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, comes in just days before the Republic Day. The intelligence input has prompted authorities to ensure a tight air security around all vital installations.

According to news agency reports, the input about movement of overground workers, owing allegiance to LeT, in Europe led sleuths to find out that they were on a shopping spree for para-gliding equipment, the sources said.
Security agencies have carried out mock drills in different areas in the country as part of the exercise to prevent any air-borne suicide attack by LeT terrorists.

The input bears significance in view of the fact that government has already put all Air India planes operating in the country’s neighbourhood on high security alert following intelligence reports from Western agencies that LeT and other terror groups were planning to hijack a flight. The government has alerted its airports and national airline after intelligence reports said hijackers may attempt to seize a plane flying in South Asia.

The civil aviation ministry ordered extra searches of passengers right before they board and the “deployment of sky marshals on certain flights,” a government press statement said.

Militants linked to Al Qaeda or LeT’s guerrilla group plan in the near future to seize an Air India plane flying between any of eight South Asian countries, a national newspaper said, quoting unnamed intelligence sources had reported on Friday.

Meanwhile, ahead of the London conference on Afghanistan, Britain has said that Pakistan needed to do more against the terror infrastructure, including LeT and the Afghan Taliban.

Saying Pakistani authorities had made “significant progress” last year in tackling insurgency in the Swat valley and South Waziristan, British High Commissioner to India Richard Stagg said that Pakistan still needs to do more against “other sources of instability and violence.”

“The government of Pakistan needs to take effective action against terror groups. We believe there has been significant activity in the last few months And we believe Pakistani authorities are taking situation very seriously.. We still think they need to do more to dismantle the terror infrastructure,” Mr Stagg said. He further noted that the LeT now has “global aspirations.”

Speaking about the London conference which is taking place on January 28, the high commissioner said that the aim of the conference was to give clear international support to the effort in Afghanistan. “We are hoping to offer a clear measure of success to Afghan people,” Mr Stagg said.

The British high commissioner further said that the conference would also be an opportunity for India to publicise the work it was doing in Afghanistan. “It’s an opportunity for Mr Krishna to give a clear message on what India is doing in Afghanistan and give perspective on India role,” he said.

There have been reports that the UK has proposed that India should look at training the Afghan police. Saying he was not aware of the proposal, Mr Stagg said, “There is a broad view that India training support for Afghanistan is very important,” he said.

Meanwhile, the British High Commissioner also said that Britain was satisfied with the security arrangements for the Commonwealth Games. He said that he expected the UK to send a substantial team for the Games and that a team of experts who had come to India had gone back reassured with the security preparations.

US trains elite squad to ‘rescue’ Pakistani nukes.

Like no one saw this coming at all. Thanks to GOV for the link to Times online

It is worth noting, Pakistan does not have nuclear power for electricity. But they do have the standard 40 megawatt reactor required for building bombs.

Elite US troops ready to combat Pakistani nuclear hijacks

The US army is training a crack unit to seal off and snatch back Pakistani nuclear weapons in the event that militants, possibly from inside the country’s security apparatus, get their hands on a nuclear device or materials that could make one.

The specialised unit would be charged with recovering the nuclear materials and securing them.

The move follows growing anti-Americanism in Pakistan’s military, a series of attacks on sensitive installations over the past two years, several of which housed nuclear facilities, and rising tension that has seen a series of official complaints by US authorities to Islamabad in the past fortnight.

“What you have in Pakistan is nuclear weapons mixed with the highest density of extremists in the world, so we have a right to be concerned,” said Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former CIA officer who used to run the US energy department’s intelligence unit. “There have been attacks on army bases which stored nuclear weapons and there have been breaches and infiltrations by terrorists into military facilities.”

Professor Shaun Gregory, director of the Pakistan security research unit at Bradford University, has tracked a number of attempted security breaches since 2007. “The terrorists are at the gates,” he warned.

In a counterterrorism journal, published by America’s West Point military academy, he documented three incidents. The first was an attack in November 2007 at Sargodha in Punjab, where nuclearcapable F-16 jet aircraft are thought to be stationed. The following month a suicide bomber struck at Pakistan’s nuclear airbase at Kamra in Attock district. In August 2008 a group of suicide bombers blew up the gates to a weapons complex at the Wah cantonment in Punjab, believed to be one of Pakistan’s nuclear warhead assembly plants. The attack left 63 people dead.

A further attack followed at Kamra last October. Pakistan denies that the base still has a nuclear role, but Gregory believes it does. A six-man suicide team was arrested in Sargodha last August.

Fears that militants could penetrate a nuclear facility intensified after a brazen attack on army headquarters in Rawalpindi in October when 10 gunmen wearing army uniforms got inside and laid siege for 22 hours. Last month there was an attack on the naval command centre in Islamabad. Continue Reading →

STRATFOR: Iran: Nuclear Weapons Work Did Not Stop In 2003

January 19, 2010 Stratfor.com

U.S. intelligence agencies now believe that Iran did not halt work on its nuclear weapons program in 2003, as had been stated in the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, The Washington Times reported Jan. 19, citing an unnamed senior U.S. military officer. The officer said analysts are now trying to determine whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given the order to produce a nuclear weapon. The officer also said that Iran is not currently capable of building a nuclear weapon, but Tehran’s program is advanced and moving toward the point where one could be built

STRATFOR on Iran and the nuclear standoff

In the opinion of this blogger, Stratfor, as much as we like admire and respect them, are way off on this issue. Not that long ago, Stratfor was insisting that Iran had no real intention of making a weapon at all, but simply wanted to use their nuclear weapons development program as a way of negotiating better terms for control of Iraq when the US pulls out. Now, Stratfor at least admits there is a real program with real intentions but also admits that Iran has stated a goal to obliterate Israel.

They still believe that Iran is a long way off of having a deliverable weapon. I think Iran has demonstrated both the ability to launch a satellite for several successful orbits, thereby showing the ability to strike any target on earth, assuming their weapon can survive re-entry of course, but more likely, as Frank Gaffney of CFSP or David Harris of INSIGNIS as well as many other intelligence analysts believe, are capable also of launching a missile with a nuclear payload to a decent height over a target and creating an EMP effect which would effectively kill tens of millions of people in the nation below as water, electricity and basially all systems cities use to survive fail. Lastly, even a device as Stratfor calls it, could be detonated aboard a ship or perhaps a 747 next to or above a target and achieve catastrophic results. The straight game-theory ‘rational actor’ idea rooted in geo-political analysis is excellent and has good predictive value over all. Except when you are dealing with super-naturalists who have a profound belief in a destiny that gods have given them, and that they have a role to play above and beyond the logical and even inevitable consequences of their actions in that regard. Iran is such a regime. It is not unprecedented in history, not even in the past 100 years.

Eeyore for Vlad: