In the opinion of this blogger, Stratfor, as much as we like admire and respect them, are way off on this issue. Not that long ago, Stratfor was insisting that Iran had no real intention of making a weapon at all, but simply wanted to use their nuclear weapons development program as a way of negotiating better terms for control of Iraq when the US pulls out. Now, Stratfor at least admits there is a real program with real intentions but also admits that Iran has stated a goal to obliterate Israel.
They still believe that Iran is a long way off of having a deliverable weapon. I think Iran has demonstrated both the ability to launch a satellite for several successful orbits, thereby showing the ability to strike any target on earth, assuming their weapon can survive re-entry of course, but more likely, as Frank Gaffney of CFSP or David Harris of INSIGNIS as well as many other intelligence analysts believe, are capable also of launching a missile with a nuclear payload to a decent height over a target and creating an EMP effect which would effectively kill tens of millions of people in the nation below as water, electricity and basially all systems cities use to survive fail. Lastly, even a device as Stratfor calls it, could be detonated aboard a ship or perhaps a 747 next to or above a target and achieve catastrophic results. The straight game-theory ‘rational actor’ idea rooted in geo-political analysis is excellent and has good predictive value over all. Except when you are dealing with super-naturalists who have a profound belief in a destiny that gods have given them, and that they have a role to play above and beyond the logical and even inevitable consequences of their actions in that regard. Iran is such a regime. It is not unprecedented in history, not even in the past 100 years.
Eeyore for Vlad:
