Category Archives: WMD’s

Iran Doubles Enriched-Uranium Stockpile, Goes Beyond 20%

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Bloomberg.com

                     By Jonathan Tirone and Indira A.R. Lakshmanan – May 25, 2012 10:00 PM ET

Iran increased its output of enriched uranium that world powers are concerned may eventually be used for a nuclear weapon, according to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.

While the United Nations agency verified that Iran hasn’t diverted its declared nuclear material for weapons use, the inspectors reiterated past statements that they can’t give assurances that Iran isn’t concealing nuclear activities.

The reactor building at the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran. Photographer: Majid Asgaripour/AFP/Getty Images

Iran almost doubled its stockpile of 20 percent medium- enriched uranium, to 145 kilograms (320 pounds), from 73.7 kilograms in February, the IAEA said yesterday in an 11-page report. Iran had tripled its production of the material in the three months ending Feb. 24.

IAEA inspectors reported they found the presence of particles of 27 percent-enriched uranium at Iran’s Fordo facility. The particles were a result of “technical reasons beyond the operator’s control,” Iran told the Vienna-based agency, which is looking into the matter. Uranium enriched over 20 percent is considered highly enriched, though most nuclear bombs use the heavy metal purified to 90 percent levels.

The report is the first since IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano returned from Iran on May 21 with a commitment from the Islamic republic’s government to improve cooperation with inspectors. While the Persian Gulf nation insists that its atomic work is peaceful, it has been under IAEA scrutiny since 2003 over evidence that it seeks nuclear-weapon capabilities.

‘A Glitch’

The uranium particles enriched to 27 percent could be the result of a transient condition that can occur when the material is fed into centrifuges, according to two senior international officials familiar with the investigation. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity.

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Nearly weapon-grade uranium traces found at Iranian nuclear site

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Times of Israel

IAEA diplomats say find not necessarily proof of weaponization program

May 25, 2012, 1:56 pm  

 

Satellite image of the Parchin facility in April (photo credit: Institute for Science and International Security/AP)

Satellite image of the Parchin facility in April (photo credit: Institute for Science and International Security/AP)
VIENNA (AP) — The U.N. atomic agency has found evidence at an underground bunker in Iran that could mean the country has moved closer to producing the uranium threshold needed to arm nuclear missiles, diplomats said Friday.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has found traces of uranium enriched up to 27 percent at Iran’s Fordo enrichment plant, the diplomats told The Associated Press.

That is still substantially below the 90-percent level needed to make the fissile core of nuclear arms. But it is above Iran’s highest-known enrichment grade, which is close to 20 percent, and which already can be turned into weapons-grade material much more quickly than the Islamic Republic’s main stockpile, which can only be used for fuel at around 3.5 percent.

The diplomats — who demanded anonymity because their information is privileged — said the find did not necessarily mean that Iran was covertly raising its enrichment threshold toward weapons-grade level. They said one likely explanation was that the centrifuges that produce enriched uranium initially over-enriched at the start as technicians adjusted their output.

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The most important report on nuclear Iran you are likely to read

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Haaretz:

[H/T Shab]

An in-depth reading of the last several IAEA reports have led Anthony Cordesman to conclude that anyone who believes Iran is not yet pursuing a nuclear-weapons program is committing an act of willful delusion.

By Anshel Pfeffer | May.12, 2012 | 2:28 AM | 42
Parchin - AP - 2004

Satellite image showing the military complex at Parchin, Friday, Aug. 13, 2004. Photo by AP
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I hesitate to recommend Rethinking Our Approach to Iran’s Search for the Bomb by the Center for Strategic & International Studies’ Anthony Cordesman as weekend reading, since its conclusions are just too sobering. On the other hand, the comprehensive report is rather heavy-going, and may be hard to find sufficient time to do it justice during the working-week. It is compulsory reading for anyone with an interest in strategic issues, and does a fantastic job of summing up all the most up-to-date and unclassified information available on Iran’s nuclear program, with the added bonus of Cordesman’s invaluable insight.

The veteran national-security expert has done much of the work for us by wading through hundreds of pages of the full versions of the last two International Atomic Energy Agency reports on Iran and other relevant documents, rendering them into something approximating laymen’s terms. As he notes at the beginning of study, very few of those commentating on these affairs have actually read the entire documents, probably even less have the necessary qualifications to actually understand them.

Any serious readers of this blog would do very well to make the time and read Cordesman, unless you have access to classified material, as this is the most important report on Iran you will read until something really big and new comes out. I certainly hope the Western negotiators who are about to meet their Iranian counterparts for the second round of the P5+1 talks in Baghdad, ten days from now, will have read it by the time they land in Iraq. It is probably much better than anything they will get in their briefing papers.

Here is a short summary of the document. I hope I do it justice:

– Anyone who believes that Iran is not yet actively pursuing a nuclear-weapons program and merely developing the capabilities is committing an act of willful delusion. The intelligence supplied to the IAEA and verified by different “member countries,” is clear on that Iran has been working on a wide range of projects for over a decade, all of which are specifically aimed at acquiring the capabilities necessary not only to enrich uranium to weapons-grade, but to assemble a nuclear advice that can be launched by long-range missile. Talk of a fatwa against nuclear weapons is just that: talk.

– Despite sanctions and international monitoring, Iran has received highly specialized instruments and equipment, benefited from the knowledge of foreign nuclear weapons designers and made impressive advance in its own scientific centers, so as to be able to carry out most of the necessary testing for a nuclear device, without actually creating a nuclear detonation. There has also been preparation for an actual nuclear test.

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Photos show more work at N.Korea nuclear test site

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AFP:

(AFP) – 19 hours ago
SEOUL — New satellite images show more work under way at North Korea’s nuclear test site but give no indication of when a test may occur, a US-based specialist website reported Saturday.
There is widespread speculation that the North may carry out another atomic weapons test — its third — following international criticism of a failed rocket launch on April 13.
The 38 North website carried satellite photos of the Punggye-ri site near the east coast, saying they seem to indicate that “the North Koreans are proceeding as if the test go-ahead decision has already been made.
“The imagery does not, however, give any indication of when that detonation may take place,” said the website, a project of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
It said the pictures taken by a private company on April 18 are the latest in a series showing continuing preparations for a test.
Photos taken on March 8 showed soil and other material excavated from the test tunnel. Overall, it said, thousands of tons of rubble have been excavated at the site covering 4,000 square metres (around one acre).
The latest imagery shows a train of mining carts on top of the soil piles and random unidentified structures or objects on or near the piles, 38 North said.

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Iran preparing for ‘the Last Six Months’

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WND Excerpt:

By Reza Kahlili

Despite the recent declaration by Iran that it does not want a nuclear bomb and statements by regime officials that they are willing to negotiate over the nuclear issue, indications from within Iran signal massive preparation for an all-out war as part of its destiny.

Nine years ago a Revolutionary Guards arm, the Holy Defense, published a book, “The Last Six Months,” in which it describes the conditions needed in the last six months prior to the reappearance of the last Islamic messiah. The book was distributed in the hundreds of thousands to all Guards, Basij and army bases throughout the country.

Islam’s Shiites believe their 12th Imam, Mahdi, will reappear at the end of times and kill all the infidels, raising the flag of Islam in all four corners of the world.

The book admonishes the military forces that they must be prepared to do their duties during those six months and that there will be many signs to help the faithful to understand the transition, which will center on Iran.

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(The article continues to explain how Iran has neutron bombs now thanks to NORK)

North Korea 5 day launch of what is 98% certainly an ICBM

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Many people I know ask, ‘Why not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons? After all, Israel, the US etc. have them, right?’ the answer of course is the ‘bully’ factor. Since N. Korea developed even crappy nukes, they have upped their level of geopolitical belligerence quite a bit, sinking a South Korean naval vessel killing over 40 sailors in peace time and firing artillery at a South Korean Island, both incidents without warning or causus-Belli, although arguably creating one.

Most recently NORK warned the world that any attempt to interfere with the launch of what is clearly an ICBM, and likely a catastrophically dangerous one as it’s chances of hitting nearly anyone other than its actual target is close to 100%, would result in horrific consequences, clearly implying the use of a multi-kiloton nuclear device.

This warning was extended to include ‘anyone attempting to recover parts of this multi-stage launch vehicle as well.

It stands to reason that Iran with it’s degree of ideological zealotry at least equal to North Korea’s would be as problematic for the world and given its proximity to what remains a top level strategic resource repository of the world, considerably more.

KAHLILI: Iran nuclear compromise no longer needed

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Washington Times:

Regime says it’s close enough to building bomb that West can’t stop it

By Reza Kahlili

 

Monday, April 9, 2012

  • Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad answers questions in an open session in parliament in Tehran on Wednesday, the first president in the country's history to be hauled before the legislature, a serious blow to his standing in a conflict pitting him against lawmakers. (Associated Press)Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad answers questions in an open session in parliament in Tehran on Wednesday, the first president in the country’s history to be hauled before the legislature, a serious blow to his standing in a conflict pitting him against lawmakers. (Associated Press)

Sanctions and the threat of military attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities aren’t swaying the leaders of the Islamic regime in anticipation of negotiations this weekend. In fact, Iranian pundits proclaim, Iran does not have to make concessions to the United States because it is a powerhouse.

In an analysis that appeared Saturday, Mohammad Mohammadi, an Iranian international affairs and nuclear program expert, wrote, “Iran is in a position now that it does not necessarily need to compromise with the U.S.”

“It is quite clear that when we watch the current arguments between America and Israel over Iran, the Obama administration is quite confused,” Mr. Mohammadi said in the Keyhan newspaper, an outlet under the direct supervision of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In his article, titled “The Lessons from the Past for the Negotiations in April,” Mr. Mohammadi wrote: “Looking back at the past decade, all the red lines by America and the West over Iran’s nuclear issue have now been transformed into acceptance. America has always adopted radical actions at first that have changed to symbolic measures later. Iran has always known that America and the West needed a way to solve the nuclear issue with some honor, and today it is quite visible that with the defeat of America’s policies toward Iran, the talk about a need to solve the Iranian nuclear issue diplomatically is a way to obtain that honor.”

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Report: Two More “Accidental” Explosions at Iran Nuke Sites

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Right Side News:  

Saturday, 07 April 2012 00:00 Ryan Mauro

Michael Ledeen reports that the Natanz uranium enrichment site has been shut down after a mysterious blast happened “in the next-to-bottom level of the underground structure.” A second explosion has struck a site in Zarin Dasht that is used for producing warheads and missile fuel and 7 people are missing.

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What is remarkable about these two alleged explosions is that they happened in the underground portions of the facilities—that is, the most secure parts. If foreign hands are responsible, then the Iranian regime must be panic-stricken.

An overview of these “accidental” explosions and mysterious assassinations makes it clear that a major campaign has been underway to damage the Iranian nuclear program. During the past 12 months:

  • March 2012: Explosion at Natanz enrichment site reportedly shuts down the facility. A second explosion is reported at a site related to missile fuel and warheads at Zarin Dasht.
  • January 11, 2012: Iranian nuclear scientist who worked at the Natanz site is killed.
  • December 11, 2011: Explosion at Yazd steel plant that reportedly is connected to the ballistic missile program.
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Goodspeed Analysis: Iran may have tested nuclear arms in North Korea

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National Post:

  Mar 12, 2012 – 11:28 PM ET | Last Updated: Mar 12, 2012 11:40 PM ET

REUTERS/Herwig Prammer

REUTERS/Herwig Prammer

Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh briefs the media during a board of governors meeting at the United Nations headquarters in Vienna March 8. Six world powers demanded Thursday that Iran fulfill a promise to let international inspectors visit a military installation where the UN nuclear watchdog believes that explosives tests geared to developing atomic bombs may have taken place.

Has Iran already secretly tested a small nuclear warhead or dirty nuclear bomb in North Korea?

The question is the latest plot twist in a growing international debate between the United States and Israel over whether or not to launch preemptive military attacks on Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program.

Last week, while U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were meeting in the White House and disagreed over the threat posed by Iran, scientists and security officials around the world were debating whether North Korea may already have served as a secret nuclear testing ground for Iran.

 

A February report in the science magazine Nature opened the door to that possibility, when it reported on a soon-to-be-published Swedish scientific study that concludes North Korea conducted two secret, small-scale, nuclear tests in mid-April and mid-May 2010.

The magazine said Dr. Lars-Erik De Geer, an atmospheric scientist with the Swedish Defence Research Agency in Stockholm, began investigating bizarre claims North Korea made in May 2010 that it had successfully achieved nuclear fusion.

The North Korean claims were generally ridiculed and dismissed by experts, but South Korean scientists said they did detect a whiff of the radioactive gas xenon at the time.

Dr. De Geer decided to follow up the reports and spent a year studying radioisotope data gathered from monitoring stations in South Korea, Russia and Japan, as well as reviewing South Korean meteorological records.

Amos Ben Gershom/GPO via Getty Images

Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on March 5. The two leaders discussed peace in the Middle East and Israel’s growing concerns with Iran producing nuclear weapons.

In the end, he concluded that “North Korea carried out two small nuclear tests in April and May 2010 that caused explosions in the range of 50-200 tonnes of TNT.”

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The Ottawa Citizen has an article here on the same issue:

U.S. nuclear expert finds Iran explosive site in imagery

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March 13 2012

Reuters:

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A U.S. non-proliferation expert said on Tuesday he has identified a building at the Parchin military site in Iran suspected of containing, currently or previously, a high-explosive test chamber the U.N. nuclear watchdog wants to visit.

David Albright, founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, said he studied commercial satellite imagery and found a building located on a relatively small and isolated compound at Parchin that fit a description in the November 2011 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report.

The building has its own perimeter security wall or fencing and there is a berm between the building and a neighboring building, Albright said in a report.

The compound is located more than four kilometers away from high-explosive related facilities at Parchin which the IAEA visited in 2005, Albright’s report said.

Iran refused access to Parchin, southeast of Tehran, during two rounds of talks with IAEA inspectors. Western diplomats say Iran may be delaying access to give it time to sanitize the facility of any incriminating evidence of explosive tests that would indicate efforts to design nuclear weapons.

“We have information that some activity is ongoing there,” IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said recently, referring to Parchin.

The IAEA has evidence that the test chamber was placed at Parchin in 2000 and that a building was subsequently constructed around it, Albright’s report said.

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