First 11 minutes
Comment:
A “No Fly Zone” is essentially a Declaration of War. Direct and kinetic.
It looks like that’s what’s going on: Poland states they’ll shoot down Russian delivery systems and missiles over a slice of Western Ukrainian airspace. That’s how NATO plans to deploy those sophisticated, nuclear-capable F16s.
Coincidentally, China and Belarus are conducting joint exercises along the Polish border. Right now.
HOWEVER:
Dima offers a somewhat less extreme possibility. De facto partition of THE UKRAINE. “Ukraine” simply means border in Slavic lingo. So this could be a restatement of historic fact rather than total escalation “No Fly Zone” in contemporary usage. (Belorussian Dima doesn’t mention these exercises at all.)
wars tend to escalate. this is such a case
Yes, they do.
But by the grace of G-d, it might not be the case. Not right now, anyway.
Zelenskyi wants the Polish government to send back to Ukraine 300,000 Ukrainians who fled to and now live in Poland.
If the Poles comply, Zelenskyi will later ask other EU nations to do same. If the Poles don’t comply, this is where the special weaponry comes into play.
The partition makes sense, everyone can see that Trump is going to win and want to settle the war before he takes office.
The Korean War armistice has held for quite a while.
The Dnieper would be a natural DMZ, roughly corresponding to the split between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Russian Empire. Both parties have revanchist fantasies that date back centuries; history and the distribution of resources is such that few will be satisfied for long.
But NATO and China can take their spoons out of their proxies and…
.
.
…feed off their own domestic caldrons.
Many were advancing this theory one year into the war. And it makes sense. Also, Russia never intended, nor does it now, to overtake Ukraine in its entirety. Russian demands were more than reasonable, IMO.
One must wonder where will Zelenskyi escape to? Or will he be eliminated? And he knows, his wife also knows.
There will not be a nuclear war, that is a certainty.
When/where did anyone in a position to know said the F-16s being sent are nuclear capable?
Fair question.
Answer is unsatisfactory. I read it somewhere I trusted.
I’ll look into it and see what I can find.
Asking the Brave AI platform the question I get this.
As an aside, the Brave Browser built in AI seems very good FWIW
Are F-16s nuclear capable:
The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a multi-role fighter aircraft, and its nuclear capabilities are a topic of interest. Here’s a breakdown of the information:
B61 Nuclear Bomb: The B61 nuclear bomb is a variable-yield nuclear weapon that can be carried by the F-16. The B61 has a yield range of 0.3 to 340 kilotons, making it a tactical and strategic weapon.
F-16’s Role: The F-16 is designed to carry the B61 nuclear bomb, making it a nuclear-capable platform. However, it’s essential to note that the F-16’s primary role is not as a nuclear delivery platform, but rather as a multi-role fighter for air-to-air, air-to-ground, and reconnaissance missions.
Russia’s Claims: Russia has made claims that F-16s could be used to carry nuclear weapons, which has led to concerns about the potential escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. However, these claims are largely based on the F-16’s ability to carry the B61 nuclear bomb, rather than any specific plans or intentions to use the F-16s for nuclear missions.
Ukraine’s F-16s: Ukraine has received training on F-16s in Denmark, but it’s unclear if Ukraine will receive nuclear-capable F-16s. Russia has warned that F-16s sent to Ukraine would be treated as a nuclear threat, but this is largely seen as a rhetorical threat rather than a genuine concern.
In summary, the F-16 is a nuclear-capable platform, but its primary role is not as a nuclear delivery platform. The F-16’s ability to carry the B61 nuclear bomb is a capability that is shared with other aircraft, and Russia’s claims about F-16s being used for nuclear missions are largely based on speculation rather than concrete plans or intentions.
——-
So less clear than we would like.
The fact that a Nuclear Weapon will Fit on the bomb Rack of any given Airplane is Not what makes it “Nuclear Capable”. The Aircraft has to have compatible Electronic Systems (the Safe/Arming System) for the Weapon. These systems are Coded/Encrypted and the Weapon will not Function (Explode) if it is Dropped without being ‘Armed’. This is why anytime a Plane carrying a Nuke has Crashed, there was no Explosion.
Because the Safe/Arming Systems are ‘Seeecrit’, it is completely unpossible that these F-16s will be equipped with these Systems, because of the chance for the Russians obtaining one from a Shot-Down Plane. (and they Will be Shot Down)
The real Problem is, when Ivan and Konstantin at the S-300 Battery Radar see an F-16 (and you can Identify Planes by Type) They have No Way of Knowing if that’s a secondhand, 40 year-old shitbird flown by a nazi potatohead with a bag of Hand Grenades, or a new, NATO/USAF one loaded with a Nuke… So they will be under standing Orders to Unload the Battery on it, without asking if they should.
And Tsar Vladimir the Bad has already Declared that Planes flying from NATOstan Bases in Poland or Romania into Russia (The ukraine IS Russia) will result in the Bases getting Hammered by lots of Missiles.
That is my understanding of how nuke systems work as well. Not every plane can just drop one. In the modern AA/AD environment I really don’t think they will be using gravity bombs but you can’t take the chance.
The point about not knowing if the plane is nuke capable really comes into play if they launch from an airbase/field that has or had a USAF component there. They you never know if the USAF “lost” the components needed.