1, Fox News feed on the London stabbing and truck jihad attack
4. UK bus driver gives account of London Bridge segment of the attack
5. WITNESS saw 3 men stabbing people with knives
"Objects in history may be closer than they appear" – Eeyore for Vlad
To get the public to vote Labour. Desperate of have Anti-Zionist and pro Muslim Brotherhood in power.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://econ.upf.edu/~montalvo/wp/restat2011.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwi56Zzb_qLUAhWEjiwKHe7DB_sQFgggMAE&usg=AFQjCNHEhte1SvZkHriy3yMuFlgHSTlhiA&sig2=ZgVfc_NLMuR9YoMxShk3qg
“Recent papers (for instance, Pape, 2003) show that the
timing of terrorist activities is not random but corresponds
to strategic objectives and political conditions. Could ter-
rorist attacks be timed to alter the result of democratic elections?
This paper looks at the electoral effect of terrorist
attacks in Madrid in 2004. One week before the election,
opinion polls showed a clear advantage for the conservative party. After the terrorist attacks, the socialist party won the congressional election.
The impact of the bombings generated heated public
debate. There was also controversy on the scientific front.
Two papers, using individual data from several postelectoral surveys, have reached opposite conclusions. However, the use of postelectoral surveys could be problematic for analyzing the counterfactual question of what would have happened if the terrorist attacks had not taken place.
This paper proposes an alternative approach to identifying the impact based on the interpretation of the attacks as a natural experiment, and a difference-in-differences estimator, to evaluate the electoral effect of the March 11, 2004 bombings in Madrid.
The placebo experiment indicates that the parallel
trend assumption is not at odds with the data. The calcula-
tions under the counterfactual of ‘‘no terrorist attacks’’ are in line with polls taken prior to the attacks. The findings are
robust to the use of alternative estimators and methodologies (like the synthetic control methods).
The results reject the null hypothesis that the socialist party would have won the election in the absence of the bombings.
REFERENCES
‘‘A Bad Idea, Rejected,’’ New York Times, July 17, 2004.
Abadie, A., A. Diamond, & J. Hainmueller, ‘‘Synthetic Control Methods
for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effects of Califor-
nia’s Tobacco Control Group,’’ Journal of the American Statistical
Association 105 (2010), 495–505.
Abadie, A., & J. Gardeazabal, ‘‘The Economic Cost of Conflict: A Case
Study of the Basque Country,’’ American Economic Review 93
(2003), 113–132.
Athey, S., & G. Imbens, ‘‘Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Differ-
ence-in-Difference Models,’’ Econometrica 74 (2006), 431–497.
Bali, V., ‘‘Terror and Elections: Lessons from Spain,’’ Electoral Studies
26 (2007), 669–687.
Bertrand, M., E. Duflo, & S. Mullainathan, ‘‘How Much Should We Trust
Differences in Differences Estimates?’’ Quarterly Journal of Eco-
nomics 119 (2004), 249–275.
Card, D., ‘‘The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Mar-
ket,’’ Industrial and Labor Relations Review 44 (1990), 245–257.
Donald, S., & K. Lang, ‘‘Inference in Difference-in-Differences and Other
Panel Data,’’ this REVIEW, 89 (2007), 221–233.
Hansen, C. J. ‘‘Asymptotic Properties of a Robust Variance Matrix Esti-
mator for Panel Data when T Is Large,’’ Journal of Econometrics
141 (2007), 597–620.
Johnston, D., and D. Van Natla, ‘‘The 2004 Campaign: Security,’’ New
York Times, October 24, 2007.
Lago, I., and J. R. Montero, ‘‘The Mechanics of Electoral Change,’’
Claves de la Razo´n Pra´ctica 149 (2005), 36–44.
Montalvo, J. G., ‘‘Voting after the Bombing: Can Terrorist Attacks
Change the Outcome of Democratic Elections?’’ Universital Pom-
peu Fabra working paper 1000 (2006).
Moulton, B., ‘‘An Illustration of Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of
Aggregate Variables on Micro Units,’’ this REVIEW 72 (1990), 334–
338.
Pape, R., ‘‘The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism,’’ American Political
Science Review 97 (2003), 343–361.
Torcal, M., and G. Rico, ‘‘The Spanish General Election: In the Shadow
of Al-Qaeda,’’ Southern European Society and Politics 9 (2004),
107–121.
Wand, J., K. Shotts, J. Sekhon, W. Mebane, M. Herron, and H. Brady,
‘‘The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant vote for Buchanan in Palm
Beach County, Florida,’’ American Political Science Review 95
Makes great sense.
I don’t know about most people, but my first thought was not how many people killed or injured but rather the impact on the upcoming election.
It does not bode well for May since it was her that allowed these people in the U.K. She was very lenient on Islamists and harsh on ‘Islamophobes’.
Let’s not forget that London is now 50% Muslim and ruled by a Muslim mayor. London carries great weight in the election process and is the ideal target for a targeted (Infidel) Islamic attack.
Podcast from Clarion:
London Bridge Terror and the General Election
Terrorists killed at least six and injured dozens in the heart of London in the early hours of June 4. With a general election looming later this week, Clarion’s editor in chief, British-born David Harris, looks at the implications of a second UK terror attack in two weeks.
https://clarionproject.org/london-bridge-terror-election-week/
How terrorist attacks can change opinions and elections — including the 2016 election
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/19/how-terrorist-attacks-can-change-opinions-and-elections-including-the-2016-election/?utm_term=.15cfb85f0e6b
Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections
How does the threat of becoming a victim of terrorism affect voting behavior? Localities in southern Israel have been exposed to rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip since 2001. Relying on variation across time and space in the range of rockets, we identify the effect of this threat on voting in Israeli elections.
• We first show that the evolution of the rockets’ range leads to exogenous variation in the threat of terrorism.
• We then compare voting in national elections within and outside the rockets’ range.
Our results suggest that the right-wing vote share is 2 to 6 percentage points higher in localities that are within the range—a substantively significant effect. Unlike previous studies that explore the role of actual exposure to terrorism on political preferences and behavior, we show that the mere threat of an attack affects voting.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/div-classtitleterrorism-and-voting-the-effect-of-rocket-threat-on-voting-in-israeli-electionsdiv/AC1229E7AAD3AC67D539EA997BFA7216
Dear yucki,
Thank you for posting the rocket-related information.
Far too few people outside of Israel understand how daily endangerment can alter voting patterns. Hell, there may not be a single neighborhood in Europe that has gotten anywhere near some sort of understanding of what Israel goes through on a regular basis.
Again, thank you.
London terror attack: will the general election be postponed?
All parties except Ukip have suspended national campaigning again following the attack on London Bridge.
http://www.newstatesman.com/london-bridge-terror-attack-will-the-general-election-cancelled-postponed
Calculating the Politics of Catastrophe
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article6257.htm
05/02/04 “New York Times” WASHINGTON – It is the nightmarish, unpredictable event that both the Bush and Kerry campaigns obsess about in private, yet rarely discuss in public. How would another terror attack before the presidential election, even one that proves a pale shadow of Sept. 11, affect the way voters view the president or his challenger?
It is an unanswerable question, of course, which naturally makes it ripe for endless Washington dinner-party talk. It is probably too speculative for serious polling. Yet that does not mean the planning has not started. Mr. Bush has begun to talk about the possibility in public, perhaps to brace the country for the worst, perhaps to begin the political inoculation if domestic defenses fail.
[…]
Unpreventable attacks, the theory goes, could have limited political effect. Suicide bombings in a mall or on a train, Madrid style, could fall in this category. But a more spectacular attack that voters viewed as exploiting a vulnerability that Washington said it was fixing – say, an explosive device aboard a freighter headed into San Francisco Bay, or a dirty bomb that evades nuclear detectors in New York or Washington – could prompt immediate calls for investigations about whether the administration did too little too late as it focused on Iraq….
Link to the original NYT article, May 2, 2004:
The Nation: Damage Control; Calculating The Politics Of Catastrophe
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/02/weekinreview/the-nation-damage-control-calculating-the-politics-of-catastrophe.html
I haven’t read this one yet, but it’s recent and comprehensive. Problem is that it’s out of Columbia University, a mostly owned subsidiary of Islam, inc.
Fear and the Ballot Box: How Political and Media Responses to Terrorism Influence Elections
https://www.cjr.org/tow_center_reports/fear_ballot_box_political_media_terrorism_elections.php
Please pardon this cross-posting but I don’t have much else to say about these barbarians.
Identify the attackers. Find out the locations of their ancestral villages in the Old Country and then make those places disappear (without warning). Deport any relatives or family members of theirs that are living in the West after seizing all of their assets as part of establishing a victim restitution fund.
Make exceptions only for individuals (not any of their relatives) that had earnestly attempted to warn authorities beforehand. Otherwise, to hell with them and all of their ilk.
It won’t work. Or only on the margins.
Those killers don’t value life – theirs, their families’, certainly not their “ancestral villages”. [The last one is projected Western thinking. These are tribes, Moh’s nomad ethos. Wildly different.]
You’d have to convince their families and communities well BEFORE these zombies were on the VERGE of amok. Subhuman inbed mothers’ milk, lots of luck weaning them.
Long-term, maybe. No where near what we need right now.
“Long-term, maybe. No where near what we need right now.”
Gotta start somewhere.
Making entire clans and villages disappear is something that no one can deny.
The West can always work its way up to much larger towns and cities. It’s all about the options.