About Eeyore

Canadian artist and counter-jihad and freedom of speech activist as well as devout Schrödinger's catholic

6 Replies to “Brad Johnson: Armenian Azerbaijan war means Turkey and Russia are directly at war”

  1. Thanks Brad Johnson for your time and energy and expertise in educating us to geo-political events. You’re a great teacher.

    Looking at this through the lens of Political Islam, it has all the hallmarks of an Islamic jihad against a Christian country. So it is predictable that Erdogan’s Turkey would align with Azerbaijan (whose president has said, ““We are one of the countries that have always attached great importance to Islamic solidarity in our foreign policy. You can see this in my speeches on foreign policy. One of our main priorities is relations with Muslim countries. Because we are part of the Muslim world.”), and Putin’s (who is Orthodox Christian) Russia would align with Christian Armenia. This is only another fight in a historic 1,400 year old war.

    Of course there are many other major factors involved but never less, Islam as a political system never dies, only ebbs and flows according to the will of those in power.

  2. Brad is right, Turkey pretty much has to escalate to the next level which may be moving in a large number of artillery pieces to bombard the fortified positions. Or it could bring in aircraft either Turkish or Azerbaijani planes and helicopters flown by Turkish pilots. If I was in charge I would do both but Turkey may not want to move that fast.

    The Turks/Azerbaijanis are assaulting dug in well fortified positions,those are always nasty to take and can’t be taken by Air or Artillery attack alone. At some point you have to send in the Queen of the Battle Field (Infantry) to dig the survivors out of their positions. The conventional wisdom is for the attacker to have 5 times the number of defenders and expect to lose a very large number of them. For examples look up the casualty rates if the US forces taking the fortified Islands in WWII. These were well fortified positions but they were cut off from reinforcements, the Armenians/Russians can bring in supplies and troops to resupply and replace the causalities. That will make the “Butchers Bill” a whole lot higher.

    With Turkey using Syrian and Pakistani mercs we can expect Georgian mercs and probably mercs from the Christian regions in the Balkans. We can also expect that there will be volunteers from Europe and elsewhere to join both sides in this fight.

    Another thing we can expect is that once the fighting spreads China will make some type of move in the Far East.

    • Interesting. I agree about the mercs, we’ve seen this in Syria and the former Yugoslavia for example. But where did you get the number 5 from? From what I’ve read the ratio is 7, but I think that was in the context of storming 19th century forts. If the attacker has more of an edge now, why is that? Better tech, better tactics?

      Fortified positions can be dealt with by air power / artillery, using bunker busters or MOAB-type munitions (don’t know if Azerbaijan has those). If international law is not an issue, white phosphorus is also an option. The US used that in Fallujah against dug-in troops to great effect (“shake and bake”).

      A low-tech solution would be to order brainwashed tards to run down a tunnel and blow themselves up. No shortage of those, unfortunately.

      Azerbaijan will probably also use those mercs (I call them neo-bashi-bazouks) to do their dirty work after they’ve overrun an area. The objective is ethnic cleansing, after all. That’s usually achieved through the time-honored tradition of mass rape, beheadings etc.

      What isn’t addressed in the video is the question: why now? And why does Erogan think he can get away with this? He is a western ally and Turkey is a NATO member, but I have yet to hear a peep from any western government. I haven’t even heard anything from any western leftist politician or activist, it’s all crickets and tumbleweeds.

      Probably nobody wants to hear this, but the US must have given him the go-ahead. Turkey is strategically vital (straits), so they humor Erdogan. And he’s an enemy of Russia, and the enemy of an enemy is a friend.. Nagorno-Karabach seems to be just another front in the New Great Game.

      I’m also wondering about the Caspian Sea, which is dominated by a decent-size Russian fleet:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Flotilla#Ships_in_service

      Baku is on the coast and seems very vulnerable to naval power. If the gloves come off, Putin could easily crush Azerbaijan.

      Also, 3 of the other countries along the caspian coast are russian allies. I don’t think they’re particularly thrilled at the prospect of Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabach. I’m especially curious about Iran’s response.

  3. Somewhat contrary to Brad Johnson, rapid or significant escalation would leave both proxy backers increasingly exposed. One of the hallmarks of proxy wars (in this case Russia backing Armenia and Turkey backing Azerbaijan) is the reluctance of the backers to escalate beyond a certain point. So while this conflict may grow in terms of numbers on the ground, it is less certain that increasingly advanced and powerful hardware will be brought to bare. The more advanced the equipment the harder it is for the backers to deny direct involvement or to back away should that be expedient.

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