The following article was sent in by a reader of this site, from a source known to them.
Thank you for the submission. The author however wishes to be anonymous. The author does however, have interesting credentials in data analysis.
Results are beginning to be reported from the trenches that show that the severity of the Chinese flu is dramatically less than has been assumed up to now. Mortality rate and transmission rate estimates were based on confirmed cases, because those were the only numbers we had. Now, however, we are seeing epidemiological, serological, and clinical results that tell a very, very different story. In particular:
1) The actual number of infections is much higher the number of confirmed cases. Perhaps as much as 85 times higher! The vast majority of infections are too mild to differentiate from ordinary flu.
2) Mortality is very strongly correlated with 4 specific pre-existing pathologies, which are themselves correlated with age. Those conditions are diabesity, hypertension, emphysema, and immunodeficiency.
3) The virus forms an aerosol that remains infectious for as much as 16 hours.
Up to now, policy has been based on the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) and Ro (Basic Reproduction Number). Now, however, we have enough data to calculate IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) and Re (Effective Reproduction Number).
The IFR is easy: if there are, say, 50 times more infections than cases, then the infection fatality rate is 50 times less than case fatality rate.
The Re requires a lot of exponential curve fitting to noisy data. However, qualitative reasoning is sufficient for now. If the virus floats around in the air for 16 hours, then everyone in a given store or office is exposed if anyone is. Why? Because modern buildings recirculate about 95% of the air to save heating/cooling costs. Therefore, the Re is higher than Ro by a large factor.
In other words, the Chinese flu is a rather weak virus that spreads very rapidly. Because it is weak, quarantines are not warranted. Because it spreads rapidly, social distancing accomplishes nothing. This explains the results of Isaac Ben-Israel, showing that the Chinese flu follows about the same time-course in all countries, regardless of measures taken to combat it. The presence or absence of attempts to flatten the curve makes no difference whatsoever.
QUARANTINE IS UNNECESSARY. LOCKDOWN IS USELESS. END THEM NOW.
Below, I have summarized some relevant references and highlighted the pertinent findings in bold:
Bendavid et al., 2020: COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California. medRxiv preprint, April 2020. doi:10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
Background: Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County.
Methods: On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer’s data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both.
Results: The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Conclusions: The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County
http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328
Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.
Mortality should probably be counted per thousand: Danish blood tests shed new light on the coronavirus
Danish original:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/doedelighed-skal-formentlig-taelles-i-promiller-danske-blodproever-kaster-nyt-lys
via Google Translate:
https://translate.google.ca/translate?hl=en&tab=TT&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dr.dk%2Fnyheder%2Findland%2Fdoedelighed-skal-formentlig-taelles-i-promiller-danske-blodproever-kaster-nyt-lys
Preliminary results from antibody testing must be taken with a number of caveats, the professor emphasizes.
Tests from 1,487 Danish blood donors may help shed new light on how deadly coronavirus really is.
The World Health Organization, WHO, has estimated that the figure is around one to three percent. But it may turn out to be high, according to calculations made at the Danish State Hospital.
– We arrive at a much lower figure of 1.6 per thousand.
So if we have 1,000 Danes who have had this infection, there are one to two who have died with it, says Henrik Ullum, a Chief Physician and professor at the Danish State Hospital.
Antibodies are formed when an infection with the virus is over. And it turns out that 22 of the 1,487 blood donors have formed antibodies. However, there have been cases where the test has failed to capture that the donors have been tested positive for coronavirus in the past.
– If we adjust for the test to not work perfectly and assume that the blood donors are representative of the entire population, it is equivalent to 127,000 people in Denmark having been infected.
Thus, when 203 Danes are declared dead today with coronavirus, it gives a mortality of 0.16 percent – or 1.6 per thousand.
But blood donors are not representative of the entire population because they are generally healthier than the total population.
– Therefore, the actual number infected throughout the Danish population may well be greater, says Henrik Ullum, who emphasizes that the figures are preliminary and must be read with caution.
“In Hamburg no one has died of corona without prior illness”
German original:
https://www.welt.de/regionales/hamburg/article207086675/Rechtsmediziner-Pueschel-In-Hamburg-ist-niemand-ohne-Vorerkrankung-an-Corona-gestorben.html
The renowned Hamburg medical examiner Klaus Püschel considers the fear of Corona to be exaggerated. He and his team autopsied the dead in Hamburg, and he found that the virus was only the last drop in these cases.
The Hamburg medical examiner Klaus Püschel and his team examine the corona victims in the Hanseatic city, and he considers the fear of the virus to be excessive. So far, not a single person with no previous illness has died of the virus in Hamburg, says Püschel of the “Hamburger Morgenpost”. “This virus affects our lives in a completely exaggerated way. This bears no relation to the risk posed by the virus,” says the renowned medical examiner. “I am convinced that corona mortality will not even make itself felt as a peak in annual mortality.” There is no reason for fear of death in connection with the spread of the disease in the Hamburg region.
“Everyone we’ve examined so far has had cancer, chronic lung disease, heavy smokers, obese people, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease.” In these cases, the virus was the last drop that made the barrel overflow. His team had just examined the body of the first 100-year-old who died with Covid-19. Here it was the very last drop.
The concern for people is grounded in the fact that the virus spreads very quickly because there is still no immune protection, said the medical examiner. “But we don’t have Italian conditions in Germany. We have a good health system and I am convinced that we can manage the pandemic well.”
Medical experts say Michigan’s coronavirus death count isn’t accurate.
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/medical-experts-say-michigans-coronavirus-death-count-isnt-accurate-but-is-it-too-high-or-too-low.html
At least 2,093 Michiganders have died over the last 30 days, though some more accurately “died with COVID-19” than “died of COVID-19,” according to medical examiners from some of the state’s most populated counties.
“I think a lot of clinicians are putting that condition (COVID-19) on death certificates when it might not be accurate because they died with coronavirus and not of coronavirus,” said Macomb County Chief Medical Examiner Daniel Spitz.
Fears, A C, et al. 2020: Comparative dynamic aerosol efficiencies of three emergent coronaviruses and the unusual persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosol suspensions.medRxiv preprint 2020.04.13.20063784. doi:10.1101/2020.04.13.20063784.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063784v1
The emergent coronavirus, designated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a zoonotic pathogen that has demonstrated remarkable transmissibility in the human population and is the etiological agent of a current global pandemic called COVID-19. We measured the dynamic (short-term) aerosol efficiencies of SARS-CoV-2 and compared the efficiencies with two other emerging coronaviruses, SARS-CoV (emerged in 2002) and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV; emerged starting in 2012). We also quantified the long-term persistence of SARS-CoV-2 and its ability to maintain infectivity when suspended in aerosols for up to 16 hours.
Ben-Israel, I, 2020: The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus
https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-end-of-exponential-growth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus/
A similar pattern – rapid increase in infections to a peak in the sixth week, and decline from the eighth week – is common everywhere, regardless of response policies.
…
Severe lockdown has some negative implications. Its immediate result is an increase in the level of unemployment and the drop in GDP (in Israel, it is estimated that every month of lockdown is reducing the GDP by 8%). This will eventually lead to an increase in poverty and to human life loss due other diseases.
Anon
I went to a store today and at the checkout, the cashier was wearing a plastic tent. No joke! Add to that the fact they spray disinfectant every minute, imagine what they are breathing into their lungs.
That said, our leaders are so f*cked. We would have done a better job than them with all we know from the beginning.
Infected, infected, infected… that’s all we hear without knowing the details. But there are many people who, upon re-testings, become infected again and aren’t sick or who have never been sick and still aren’t. In my opinion, that’s a good thing because they have established immunity which should be the goal of the exercise.
Homeland Security data: Sunlight, higher temps and humidity kills off the virus.
https://twitter.com/ChanelRion/status/1251265277163196416
there are possible problems with the santa clara the data set.
“…1. The False Positive Rate of the Test is High…2. Were Participants Enriched for COVID-19 Cases?…”
if the noise from the false positive rate is to high it would be impossible to detect the true positive rate.
Peer Review of “COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California”
https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25
at 3 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nO4xgcIaPeA
at 11min
My kids had to explain to me “Happy 4-20.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/420_(cannabis_culture)