6 Replies to “Is the US unable to create a no-fly zone in Ukraine against Russia?”
If I remember, few months ago, a hypersonic bomb took out near Kiev the Patriot defense system.
I am sure Russians are monitoring Ukraine as territory very good.
In the moment you start moving new systems in order to install them, when they have 100% certitude of a defense system in progress of installing…a hypersonic bomb will fly there.
With actual air defense systems produced in the west, it is almost impossible to intercept hypersonic missiles. So, in my opinion, air defense in Ukraine will be destroyed before is ready to operate.
The Russians , unlike the West , have a totally integrated ISR / real-time Strike capability (Intelligence Surveillance reconnaissance) terrestrial, satellite and drones. Nothing can move in Ukraine without being detected and targeted in real-time when so desired.
You can find excellent Youtube discussions of the Russian ISR/Strike capability on Judging Freedom , Col. Macgregor , Scott Ritter , Larry Johnson.
First … The West missile defenses are unable to stop most of the current Russian missiles and even some drones. The US can only make less than 200 Patriot missiles a year and Russia has been using drones to fake out the Patriot batteries to expend the Ukrainian missiles , and the Patriot system is then hit with missiles once it’s location is detected. The Russian cruise missiles can be programmed to take a random approach to a target which further confuses the defense system.
Second … Where would the “no-Fly Zone” defenses be located? If they were assembled in Ukraine they would be detected and targeted , and also probably if the aircraft were flown from Poland , Romania etc. … assuming they made it back to base. The F16 hype is a joke. When the US practices with F16’s they do a manual walk of the runway to pick up debris as the US aircraft , unlike Russian need pristine airfields. In addition given the Russian air defense system no aircraft would survive.
It might be possible to give Ukraine so mutch anti-aircraft rockets that they are able to deny Russia any use of that airspace.
On the other hand: the term «no fly zone» means that a state declaring it will attack any aircraft flying there, for all practical purposes Ukraine have tried to enforce a no fly zone over their territory since february last year and Russia have challenged this since then.
If NATO was to DECLARE a no-fly zone it would also mean that NATO would ENFORCE it, then it would be Russia against NATO and probably escalate in days or even hours.
I write NATO rather than the US here because that is at least somewhat more realistic but it would be lunacy anyway.
I’m no expert but I’m sure the Western Axis powers don’t want to be even more humiliated ( is that grammatical ?) by what Stefan described above…
During the Jimmy Carter administration the Dems have worked to weaken the US Military and Intelligence organizations. We have had 8 years of Obama doing his best to destroy the US military, this was followed by 4 years of the Deep State hampering and blocking President Trump’s efforts to restore our military. Then the 2020 election was stolen and Obama’s puppet Biden was sworn in and the destruction was put into high gear.
Given the facts stated above it is unlikely that we can establish a no fly zone without declaring war against Russia. Possibly not even then.
I had an appointment at the VA this afternoon and no e of the Vets I talked to were happy with the current mess or what the see occuring over the next several years.
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If I remember, few months ago, a hypersonic bomb took out near Kiev the Patriot defense system.
I am sure Russians are monitoring Ukraine as territory very good.
In the moment you start moving new systems in order to install them, when they have 100% certitude of a defense system in progress of installing…a hypersonic bomb will fly there.
With actual air defense systems produced in the west, it is almost impossible to intercept hypersonic missiles. So, in my opinion, air defense in Ukraine will be destroyed before is ready to operate.
Media reports said that the Patriot system was damaged (but it did what it was supposed to do–intercept the missile.) https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2023/05/17/counter-claims-made-on-social-media-over-damage-of-patriot-missile-battery-in-ukraine/?sh=2c25bc802c55
You might try this search key https://translate.google.com/?sl=en&tl=iw&text=Kiev%27s%20Patriot%20system&op=translate with site:.il to see what the Israeli press and public thinks about this.
https://www.fxp.co.il/showthread.php?t=21526515 (May 2023 – commenters discuss recharging the Patriot and their skepticism about the numbers)
https://www.mako.co.il/news-world/ukraine_russia_war/Article-df172b3177bf781027.htm (also May – explanation of how the missile travels and might be intercepted)
https://mwi.westpoint.edu/hypersonic-hype-russias-kinzhal-missiles-and-the-lessons-for-air-defense/ (comments about lack of damage and that the Russian missile was not flying at hypersonic speed)
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2023-06-26/patriot-proves-counter-hypersonic-capability
The Russians , unlike the West , have a totally integrated ISR / real-time Strike capability (Intelligence Surveillance reconnaissance) terrestrial, satellite and drones. Nothing can move in Ukraine without being detected and targeted in real-time when so desired.
You can find excellent Youtube discussions of the Russian ISR/Strike capability on Judging Freedom , Col. Macgregor , Scott Ritter , Larry Johnson.
First … The West missile defenses are unable to stop most of the current Russian missiles and even some drones. The US can only make less than 200 Patriot missiles a year and Russia has been using drones to fake out the Patriot batteries to expend the Ukrainian missiles , and the Patriot system is then hit with missiles once it’s location is detected. The Russian cruise missiles can be programmed to take a random approach to a target which further confuses the defense system.
Simplicius has numerous articles ….
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-8523-projecting-the-intermediate
Second … Where would the “no-Fly Zone” defenses be located? If they were assembled in Ukraine they would be detected and targeted , and also probably if the aircraft were flown from Poland , Romania etc. … assuming they made it back to base. The F16 hype is a joke. When the US practices with F16’s they do a manual walk of the runway to pick up debris as the US aircraft , unlike Russian need pristine airfields. In addition given the Russian air defense system no aircraft would survive.
It might be possible to give Ukraine so mutch anti-aircraft rockets that they are able to deny Russia any use of that airspace.
On the other hand: the term «no fly zone» means that a state declaring it will attack any aircraft flying there, for all practical purposes Ukraine have tried to enforce a no fly zone over their territory since february last year and Russia have challenged this since then.
If NATO was to DECLARE a no-fly zone it would also mean that NATO would ENFORCE it, then it would be Russia against NATO and probably escalate in days or even hours.
I write NATO rather than the US here because that is at least somewhat more realistic but it would be lunacy anyway.
I’m no expert but I’m sure the Western Axis powers don’t want to be even more humiliated ( is that grammatical ?) by what Stefan described above…
During the Jimmy Carter administration the Dems have worked to weaken the US Military and Intelligence organizations. We have had 8 years of Obama doing his best to destroy the US military, this was followed by 4 years of the Deep State hampering and blocking President Trump’s efforts to restore our military. Then the 2020 election was stolen and Obama’s puppet Biden was sworn in and the destruction was put into high gear.
Given the facts stated above it is unlikely that we can establish a no fly zone without declaring war against Russia. Possibly not even then.
I had an appointment at the VA this afternoon and no e of the Vets I talked to were happy with the current mess or what the see occuring over the next several years.