The Iran deal. A preliminary opinion.

So far, many pundits have looked at the US deal with Iran through the distillation process of their own areas of expertise. This may or may not be enlightening, depending on how relevant that expertise is and how much it factors in to the Iranian process.

Even so, some of the political pundits have weighed in rather brilliantly and I have posted some of those videos and articles here already. Andrew Bostom wrote on how the motives of the Islamic republic of Iran have been ignored by all. That the fanatical Jew-hatred and 12th imam ideology require the Iranian regime to start a world war to bring back the ‘boy in the well’,  and hatred of Jews requires them to make every effort to destroy an autonomous Jewish nation plumb in the middle of Dar-al-Islam.

The one area I wanted to familiarize myself with was the actual process. How does this deal impact the Iranian ability to produce nuclear weapons on schedule. I remember having watched a few times a series of videos on Youtube which was a lecture from a physics prof. at Cal Tech where the bomb was actually invented. It was very good and I downloaded them and stored them for future use but that was several moves ago and many more dead hard drives.

I wanted to watch the video below before I posted it to see if it was up to the standards of the lost ones and in some ways yes it is, and in others, not nearly as useful. But I do feel it is worth watching. Fortunately it is well explained enough that the visuals are not perfectly necessary so you can go about your day to day things while it plays in the background and you should be able to understand enough of it to make the call yourselves.

The things to keep in mind while watching this are:

1. Iran is working on both methods of making nuclear weapons at once. The uranium bomb and the plutonium bomb. So while everyone counts grams of U235 in the centrifuges, Iran may easily have enough plutonium for a production line now. As far as I know, the inspectors have never been allowed near those facilities.

2. Iran may choose to go forwards with less than weapons grade as they get the effect they want anyway with Hiroshima grade. Which is less enriched than modern optimal purity for weapons.

3. It seems that once you get to 20% enrichment that getting to a degree of enrichment of the U235 method is fast and easy. I believe that Iran already has a great deal of 20% enriched. If this is the case the US deal may actually facilitate the bomb process as the increased funds they will get from the eased sanctions should let them jump to the last stage of weapons materials quickly and with much less pain than during full sanctions.

If anyone is familiar with the physics of this, please feel free to comment under this post. I really do think that is the one area missing in terms of expert opinions with respect to the Iranian deal with the US.

Eeyore for Vlad.

About Eeyore

Canadian artist and counter-jihad and freedom of speech activist as well as devout Schrödinger's catholic

6 Replies to “The Iran deal. A preliminary opinion.”

  1. Eeyore, enjoyable and informative talks, thanks for finding them.

    I can’t assess the physics, but Matthew Bunn addresses (in part at least) the points you raise in an article about the Iran deal here:

    http://iranmatters.belfercenter.org/blog/iran-deal-%E2%80%93-brief-look-specifics

    There seems to be a fuzziness about every commitment that surely amounts to more time for Iran to get what it wants.

    On point 1: “On the plutonium path, Iran agreed on several steps to postpone the issue of the Arak reactor – capable of producing 1-2 bombs’ worth of plutonium each year once it becomes operational…. Iran could, however, continue to produce heavy water or manufacture components for the reactor.”

    On 2 & 3: Iran agrees ‘No more 20 percent uranium, and eliminating or converting all of the existing stock.’ The White House says this ‘would add “months” to the time Iran would need to race to a bomb. That’s probably an overstatement, given how much of the work is already done at 5% enrichment and how many centrifuges Iran will still be operating…’

    If “months” is an overstatement, are we talking weeks?

    By way of conclusion, Bunn lists commitments not covered by the pact. It’s not very encouraging. “[M]ost of the difficult negotiating lies ahead.”

  2. I can’t speak on the physics but one sticking point is launch vehicles, Iran wants to be able to hit targets all around the world in the initial strike, hopefully the partial missile shield will still be in place for North America when they launch. Your assembly line is one of the things they want but another is the ability to hit multiple targets one the first launch, we can expect them to hit Saudi to destroy the Saudi locations their prophecies say will be destroyed, we can also expect them to target Israel with several warheads hoping to slip one past the Israeli missile defense system. Other then that they will hit all of the US military assets in the MIddle East and Europe they can reach, and it the new ICBM that they and North Korea are working on works try for North America.

    Since North Korea has restarted a reactor this has to be added into all assessments, Iran and North Korea/China have been whipsawing us for years, are they starting again, and does the Chinese claim to several Japanese islands and declaring an air exclusion zone mean anything about what Iran is doing?

  3. Ox AO so would smuggling the parts over the southern border and assembling them in a tall building, or detonating the nuke in the hold of a docked ship.

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