North Korea’s Tipping Point of No Return

H/T Red:

SOFREP.COM:

      by · April 9, 2013 · Posted In: Op-Ed
NorthKorea

Virtually every intelligence analysis has been waiting for one key moment to unfold in North Korea, and it just happened. I am not talking about the military moves of key North Korean missiles which occurred last week, nor am I speaking about the recent decision to resume operations at its Yongbyon nuclear complex. The closure of the Kaesong industrial complex is what everyone has been waiting for.

The Kaesong industrial complex is the key economic revenue source for North Korea. It is a joint venture between the North and South allowing South Koreans to serve as mentors and managers in the industrial complex.

According to a March 29th NightWatch report, “South Korea’s Unification Ministry said that 160 South Koreans traveled to the Kaesong complex from the South. The total number of South Koreans at Kaesong on Thursday was more than 1,000.”

The same report claims that all phone and fax lines from the North complex connecting to the South were operable. However, as of today, South Korea’s Unification Ministry reported that North Korea is allowing South Korean workers to leave the Kaesong joint industrial zone but is blocking workers from traveling north.

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About Eeyore

Canadian artist and counter-jihad and freedom of speech activist as well as devout Schrödinger's catholic

18 Replies to “North Korea’s Tipping Point of No Return”

  1. Oh shit, I booked a trip to Pyongyang for the first two weeks in June. I’d better cancel it. I think it’s time for me to think about that vacation in Tehran!

  2. If they are going to war Iran is probably going to do the same and China will take at island or three in the China Sea.

  3. I for one think China has a strong claim on the Paracel Islands based On the Ming dynasty, Qing dynasty & actions immediately post WW2.

    But for China to claim the Spratly Islands is complete (insert word here) nuts. Sure they might be able to muscle their way into ownership, but the amount of goodwill from Vietnam, Malaysia, the Phillipines and everyone else will be so serve as to no be worth it. But it looks like they are going to step on the thing.

    I think the Island pretty much at least 1/3rd or more belong to Malaysia based on proximity.

  4. The Paracel Islands are surrounded by oil deposits, the Spratly Islands control a choke point that would give China control over who entered the South China Sea and would make shipping to Japan more expensive. The Senkaku Islands islands are also home to oil deposits and China wants them, of course they are also claiming Okinawa and all of the island chain between Okinawa and Taiwan.

  5. From my SOFREP psot
    A launch date of April 15th as predicted by Kerry Patton makes sense to me as a demonstration of North Korean strength and resolve and a provocation

    I agree with McPosterdoor as to the other provocations.

    The North badly needs money, but the Kaesong Industrial Zone (KIZ) is becoming a political liability. Northerner rubbing shoulders with southerners no matter how monitored is causing huge problems. The North Koreans elite simply cannot lock ever greater number of workers (read serfs) and still function.

    China & Russia could use this to distract us as other have pointed out. What we should do is conduct our Minuteman III test, shoot down the North Korean Missile if it flies over Japan, crack down on the rackets run by North Koreans in Japan, and drop the hint that Japan and South Korea will have joint developing a nuclear Weapon program.

    China would have a cow if the Japanese or South Koreans started a nuke program. They will howl like stuck pig. They might also yank on North Korea’s chain real hard.

    If North Korea is desperately needing the KIZ money, then they will miss the remittances form the North Korean crime rackets in Japan. Hurt them. See how badly China wants to bail them out. Bleed China financially. The Chinese economy is hurting too.

    Like punching a bully in the nose is Japan shoots down a North Korean missile overflying Japan, the North will send no more. They will look like chumps. the Japanese can thank the North for the free & realistic ballistic missile defense test. It will also strengthen the hand of those who back ballistic missile defense. the critics always complain about the test as not being realistic. Barring a MIRV’d warhead with decoys this would be about as real as it gets.

  6. @ Richard

    “the Spratly Islands control a choke point that would give China control over who entered the South China Sea and would make shipping to Japan more expensive. ” I don’t see how. Shipping thru or around the Spratlys should be free per the international law of the see. At least that is my understanding of the the law. The British made a point of upholding this law and paid in blood.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_Incident

    “The Senkaku Islands islands are also home to oil deposits and China wants them, of course they are also claiming Okinawa and all of the island chain between Okinawa and Taiwan.”

    I think the 1972 Okinawa Reversion Treaty was a mistake. There should have been a plebiscite. I strongly believe that. At this point it is water under the bridge. If there had been a plebiscite the Okinawans would have established a nation, found out that it did not work out all that well economically and petitioned to join Japan. Japan conquered Okinawa about the same time as the America was being colonized. There are too many Japanese in Okinawa & such to kick them out. It is water under the bridge

    I think the Japanese have a stronger claim under international law since they actually established facilities there as far back as 1900 for the fishing industry. The Chinese might have charted them 1st, but the Japanese actually economically exploited them 1st.

    It helps to kick the crap out of another country (Japan vs China in 1895). They cannot look out toward the periphery if they are trying to reorganize after a defeat.

  7. International law is only good as long as the good guys are willing to use militaary force to enforce it, China has already build one air strip on the Islands and said that they think only Chinese Vessels should enter the China Sea. Making the one air strip into a fighter base and building more would give them control.

    Remember China has spend 20 years telling its military that they are going to fight a war against the US, with Obama working to destroy our military and economy they may be able to take over that region without us being able to do anything.

  8. Don’t forget Japan doesn’t have much of a military, what they have is good but they are still a self defense force with very limited offensive capabilities, and every time the governments wants to rebuild the military the left raises so much hell they have trouble doing anything. Japan needs at least one carrier group and so does South Korea, their dependence on the US to protect them was good as long as all of the US Presidents were committed to protecting them. Since the far left took over the Dems that hasn’t always been true, but during the Clinton administration China wasn’t strong enough to push as hard as they wanted. With 3 more years of Obama China, Iran and North Korea have a more or less free hand to do what they want. Making it easier for them is the attitude among so many that another major war will never occur, this is as wrong as the idea that no US President will ever want to become a dictator.

  9. “that they think only Chinese Vessels should enter the China Sea. Making the one air”

    I would like to see the link.

    If say the people of Cuba decided in a plebiscite to become the 51st state of the U.S. post Castro, the international community would look askance if we said that people could not transit between Cuba & Florida.

    Ditto if we joined with Mexico & Cuba & told people to keep out of the Gulf of Mexico.

    You are correct China has been telling its’ military for a long time early 1990s that we are the enemy. It is not a question of whatif & make contingency plans it is more indoctrination & saber rattling.

    It is a big mistake for china to muscle in on the Spratly Islands. Vietnam (leadership) hates the U.S. & they are cozying up to us because of China.

  10. @ Richard

    I want to say that you are an alarmist and full of sh_t. But I can’t, what you say fits the facts and describes the left to a T.

    And I can’t ignore it. One day me or mine might be on the wrong side of an international border.

    Do you have the link?
    “that they think only Chinese Vessels should enter the China Sea. Making the one air”

  11. It will take time to find it, they pushed that attitude during the Clinton era and somewhat backed off when Bush was sworn in, so finding the links we be difficult. I will let you know if I find them.

  12. This was quicker then I thought it would be

    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2013/0327/Flares-gunshots-and-fires-oh-my-The-latest-South-China-Sea-accusations-fly-video

    The paragraph you will be most interested in.

    “This is just the latest event in an ongoing dispute between Vietnam and China over islands in the South China Sea. China claims to have historical territorial rights over the entire sea, but Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and several other nations each lay claim to various islands within the region – including the Paracels and the Spratleys, which Vietnam claims”

    There are older ones that tell more but it they will take time to find.

  13. Thanks for the link.

    Stories older than 5 or 10 years old can be extremely hard to find so TYVM. Some news organizations were not on line back in the 1990s or web searches allows them to be buried with trivia.

    territorial rights over the entire sea I guess would mean no fishing, mining or drilling. But if the means no navigation past the Spratlys, that would be horrible for international relations. I guess I have to look up what territorial rights means in international law precisely and what China means by them

  14. Be sure and check out the second one (I don’t know anything about that outfit so make up your own mind) and the last one, the strait there is the one they want to close except to ships headed to China and Chinese flagged vessels.

  15. Thankyou once again Richard,

    The Hot Air article was interesting. China’s claimed territorial waters are unreal.

    China’s leaders would be better off having faith.

    They could have faith in fusion power will replace oil for many applications. They should have faith that if they are industrious like Singapore, they do not have to gobble up every square inch of land so as to get every scrap of iron ore or drop of crude oil and alienate the whole world in the process. If I were to have been born on Mars & still live on Mars I would still have a dog in this fight.

    What I said is plain as day.

  16. Red you are right, most people hear or read me talk about China and think I am a nut, they are a very real threat to world peace and they are the ones pulling the strings on North Korea so what is in it for China?

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