Iran’s Khamenei presents war scenarios

h/t Richard

(This is about 1/2 of the whole article available at…)

YNET NEWS:

In an unusual step, Iran’s spiritual leader publishes commentary on official website outlining three scenarios for strike against Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, Yedioth Ahronoth reports Israel has taken in shipment of Patriot missiles

Dudi Cohen

11.25.11, 12:02 / Israel News

In an unusual step that comes on the heels of Iran’s threats and warnings to the US and Khamenei warns US, Israel against strike

The article details three possible war scenarios Iran could be faced with if Israel or the US proceed with a strike:

1. An all out war of attrition that would combine aerial and ground forces attack.

2. Limited war as a preparatory action for political proceedings. This would include hitting Iran’s control centers for the purpose of disrupting the stability of the Islamic regime. The best case scenario here would be that war leads to the regime’s fall; the worst case would see Iran surrendering at the negotiating table.

3. A war on specific targets with the aim of destroying the regime’s assault capabilities, especially against the “Zionist regime.”
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Ready for action? Netanyahu and Obama (Photo: Reuters)

The Iranian commentator goes on to assess the possibility of likelihood of each scenario. He believes the feasibility of the first option is due, among other things to the fact that “the western countries’ capabilities to carry out such a complex operation are very limited and nearly nonexistent.”

Mohebian also mentioned the upcoming US presidential elections and the fact that the west doesn’t have sufficient intelligence on Iran. In light of these problems Mohebian believes that the chances of an all out war against Iran are close to nothing.

He goes on to point out the main problems of the second and third scenarios: The Iranian regime is prepared for an attack on its centers of power, the Iranian response to such an attack could be unexpected, the attack could turn the regime to an even more extreme path and encourage it to set the Middle East on fire, which would endanger the western world.

Mohebian claims that even the third and most likely scenario has a relatively small likelihood of happening. He notes that the scenario’s execution would be complicated. It would be impossible to attack all of the country’s nuclear facilities due to its size; a limited war could develop into a regional war.

Patriot protection

For example, an attack on Bushehr could lead to harsh ecological consequences for the region. Attacking only certain nuclear sites would not lead to a complete shutdown of Iran’s technological nuclear capabilities.

Meanwhile, it would seem that Israel is also preparing for every possible scenario. Yedioth Ahronoth on Friday revealed that “a friendly country” has in the past few weeks secretly sent Israel anti-aircraft Patriot missile batteries that also serve as a missile defense system.

About Eeyore

Canadian artist and counter-jihad and freedom of speech activist as well as devout Schrödinger's catholic

3 Replies to “Iran’s Khamenei presents war scenarios”

  1. It will be two or three, probably 3 since Obama has no intention of doing anything and Israel doesn’t have the assets to do more then 3 with some targets from 2.

  2. Here’s the real war scenario.

    We or Israel kick their butts then they whine like little bitches and do nothing.

    a) They know we can crush them in an instant if they give us and Europe enough of an excuse and b) Russia, though it will make various shows of support, would never ever risk actual military confrontation with western powers over the integrity of another country.

    That is the war scenario these countries ALWAYS follow after strikes.

    Like the other Armies of the region theirs only has experience killing their own unarmed civilians. Against a real army they would melt like camel’s butter (blarg!) and they know it.

    That’s why they are expressing so much braggadocio right now. They are pants pooping scared.

    And this impotence extends to the results of an actual invasion.

    And they don’t have a world full of sunni nuttos to go blow themselves up for them. These people who flock from all over the world to supposedly defend Islam only do it for Sunni Islam. Has Bahrain experienced an influx of jihadis and a wave of suicide bombings? Nope.

    And And Iran isn’t filled with pre warring factions ready to jump on each other once central power is gone so there won’t be an insurgency of the scale there was in Iraq. Furthermore if any develop we have leared from Iraq that all it takes is a little Bakshish and their oh so rightuous indignation over being occupied by evil crusaders vanishes in a split second.

    Now that they saw how easy Libya was for the US and EU they have every justification to be piddling themselves. If they had ANYTHING to back up all their talk, there wouldn’t be any need for talk.

    It would not be a second Iraq and the Ayatollahs know it. That is why they are being so voiciferous now.

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