Is Turkey the wildcard in the US – Iran game?

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The following post is a bit of a rough ride. It is not attempting to lead anyone to any conclusions and may or may not have any meaning at all.

It is also possible that it has a great deal of meaning.

If one considers what Erdogan says in these clips to be repeating aspects of Reliance of the Traveler and other scripture, it could be very meaningful that a leader of a NATO country may say these words.

Or, it could be mindless nothings. Erdogan is known to speak with a lot of art and metaphor. So much so, many natives find it very hard to listen to.

These are from clips of a long video of Erdogan speaking at a CNN-TURK press conference. A Turkish Translator, ‘Tanya’, explains that translating Erdogan is in fact very frustrating as he speaks somewhat cryptically.

One question may be, is he speaking with a policy of deliberate ambiguity? Or is it because he is dog-whistling Islamic law and customs as the de facto leader of the muslim world at this time. At least geopolitically as the Muslim Brotherhood is now officially Turkish.

Lets begin with an American retired Colonel speaking on recent events concerning the US and Iran:

Below are two short excerpts from a clip that is over 90 minutes long altogether. But the following clips are both within the first 15 minutes.

Reliance quote on Jihad

With this little data, and a speaker who is possibly using a highly alien frame of reference, it’s difficult to say definitively what, if any, meaning can be extracted.

It’s also possible to infer one possible meaning of great strategic importance though.

And that would be that prominent NATO member state, Turkey, is wildly on the other side of the equation when it comes to Iran Vs. the US. and that Turkey could be the much bigger threat.

This is one of those Pascal’s wager type situations. Is the harm in not believing this is the case and being wrong, greater than the harm in believing this is the case and observing events with this possibility?

Thank you all very much who were part of putting all this together. You know who you are, and your work is of incalculable value.

 

About Eeyore

Canadian artist and counter-jihad and freedom of speech activist as well as devout Schrödinger's catholic

17 Replies to “Is Turkey the wildcard in the US – Iran game?”

  1. “Turkish Government, Press Respond To U.S. Killing Of IRGC Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani: ‘The Bandit U.S. Is Pursuing A New Order In The Middle East,’ U.S. And Israel ‘Will Drown In The Clean Blood Of [Soleimani] And All The Martyrs'” MEMRI – January 3, 2020
    Special Dispatch No.8459
    https://www.memri.org/reports/turkish-government-press-respond-us-killing-irgc-qods-force-commander-qassem-soleimani

    Video: “IRANIAN PRESIDENT HASSAN ROUHANI: IRAN’S NUCLEAR INDUSTRIES WILL PROSPER IN THE COMING YEARS; AMERICAN’S “LEG” AND “HAND” WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE REGION; PMU, HIZBULLAH, HOUTHIS ARE NOT IRANIAN PROXIES” + Transcript Link
    MEMRI TV – January 8, 2020
    https://www.memri.org/tv/iranian-president-rouhani-nuclear-industries-prosper-coming-years-we-do-not-have-proxies-region

  3. I both agree and disagree with the Colonel Iran is on the ropes but isn’t out, as long as the current regime is in place and working to acquire nukes we have a national interest there.

    As Iran is falling Turkey is raising and is becoming a threat to the US, not a major threat yet but a threat. The place we need to pull out of is Turkey but I doubt that international politics will let us do that for a while.

  5. Iran has sophisticated ballistic missiles. They don’t need nukes to devastate their proximate targets. The nuke threat serves as a distraction in the near term.

    It’s a ploy.

    Hezbollah-Lebanon has up to 150,000 missiles situated in heavily populated areas. Enough to overwhelm all current configurations of Iron Dome (plus however many Patriots). These missile defense systems are 85% accurate.

    Israel would sustain heavy losses, perhaps critical if enough missiles are upgraded to hit key infrastructure. Then many, many more Lebanese civilians would end up dead. Martyrs.

    Our U.S. aircraft carriers are even more vulnerable to UAV swarms. The September hit on Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia was 97% accurate. Cut more than 50% of their oil production.

    The Twisted-Ragheads chose to avoid casualties.

    I could go on.
    Point is, they have too much kill power right now. They don’t YET have follow-up capabilities: a first strike against Israel or U.S. assets is suicide. There’s no percentage for us in precipitating their quest for martyrdom.

    A two-penny isolationist argues that we should calibrate our force projection to whether or not we need their oil. That’s so painfully short-sighted and cowardly, arguing’s not worth the spit.

    Meanwhile, we have to harden our defensive posture. Coasting, relying on sanctions alone is untenable. They will push to the limits we set to deter their aggression. The Gulfies are feckless, but they’re well-situated and pay us well.

      • Israel unveils breakthrough laser to intercept missiles, aerial threats

        Technology expected to take down a variety of aerial threats including rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles.…

        The ministry has been working for more than 10 years on powerful laser technology to enable the development of platforms to intercept a variety of threats, he said. It has carried out a number of successful interceptions of targets, including mortar shells, drones and antitank missiles, at a variety of ranges over the years.…

        [T]the ministry was able to take several laser beams and, with an advanced algorithm, connect them to get one strong beam that is able to intercept and take down a variety of threats. Based on high-energy electric lasers rather than chemical laser technology, the robust system will complement the other layers of Israel’s aerial defenses and will be a strategic change in the defense capabilities of the state…

        [S]some of the advantages of the high-energy lasers include the ability to continually use the system at lower cost, higher effectiveness and with efficient management. They will also allow for a decrease in the number of missile interceptors used and the future potential to intercept a variety of threats, including unmanned aerial vehicles, drones and guided rockets.…
        https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israels-Defense-Ministry-announces-breakthrough-in-laser-technology-613568

      • Most people don’t understand that wars are fought with money as well as weapons, thank you for informing people about the lower cost more effective weapon.

    • The main thing that protects our fleets and the US from EMP attack is the revenge strike we can launch. You take out the US Navy or the homeland at the very real risk of a nuclear attack that makes you country glow in the dark for centuries. That is why we had/may still have a defensive tripod, land based missiles, airborne bombs and sea based missiles. If the US can build a missile defense system that will take out the attacking missiles to the point that only one or two warheads will leak through we can then think about removing one of the three legs of our defense.