Another day, another dozen conflicting reports on military action vis a vis Iran, Israel, The United States. It is possible but unlikely that anyone can know what Israel or the US will do, when likely they do not know themselves yet.
From DW.DE
Iran
US experts warn of Israeli attack on Iran
While America says it wants a peaceful resolution to tensions between Israel and Iran, some US experts say an Israeli military attack is possible – this year, in fact. And they are warning of devastating results.
US President Barack Obama had tried to calm tensions between Israel and Iran last Sunday with the words that Tel Aviv, as far as he could see, had yet “to make a decision” as to whether it would strike Tehran militarily. But it failed to stop Iran flexing muscles in a military exercise on its border with Afghanistan over the weekend.
Tehran threatened retribution if Israel were to strike. Many think it will – especially against Iranian nuclear installations.
Spring offensive
Iran’s long-range missile capability is largely untested
As so often, it was a newspaper article – this time in the American daily The New York Times – that started the current speculation.
It was an article by Ronan Bergman, a journalist who is considered to be highly connected in Israel.
“After speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence,” wrote Bergam, “I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012.”
“Devastating consequences?” Niall Ferguson has explained why such talk, aimed at provoking inaction, is much more dangerous than anything it might try to prevent.
Sorry, I meant to say “promoting inaction.”
Israel will have to act, Obama won’t. Having said that unless there is a major miracle Israel will only be able to buy a few months at best before Iran has nuclear weapons. The reports I a reading vary from the totally unbelievable years to the more likely ones saying that Iran either has 4 assembled nukes or enough fissile material to build 4 but are waiting for some reason. They have also launched a small satellite into low earth orbit, this means they have the means to reach any place on earth with a nuke with yields the size of those used on Japan in WWII.
Personally I think Iran wants Israel to start the shooting but I have been wrong before, it could be that they are looking for some sign that the Mahdi is stirring before they start the shooting.